FACTS AND COMMENTS

Year 2021, Issue: 44, 9 - 51, 06.12.2021

Alev Kılıç

Abstract

This article covers Turkey-Armenia relations as well as domestic and international developments of Armenia in the period of July-December 2021. The tumultuous days in the aftermath of the 44-day Karabagh war and the bitter defeat acknowledged with the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement on 9 November in Moscow left its place initially to relative calm and stability following the snap elections held on 20 June, resulting with the landslide victory of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to the chagrin and against the forecast of several circles. On the other hand, a relatively small but vociferous opposition in the Armenian Parliament composed of prominent and radical elements of the past administrations together with their militant supporters has given Pashinyan reason to be more circumspect. A determining factor in Pashinyan’s success has been his deft handling of relations with Russia, the EU, the US and maintaining a fragile balance. Having named his new cabinet and proclaimed his government’s ambitious program, the daunting fact before him is to put into practice his promises and vision.

Pashinyan has proven to be a seasoned and populist politician. What is now required is to be a statesman. That prompts leading his people to understand that the way to prosperity and stability does not entail trying furtively to turn the clock back but rather accepting the reality in Karabagh despite the incitement and encouragement he receives otherwise. However, instead of accepting the realities and working for a lasting peace, it seems that Armenia has been opting for a policy of procrastination with the pipe dream of receiving assistance to continue occupying Azerbaijani territory that is temporarily guarded by the Russian peacekeeping forces. In fact, the President of Armenia is on record declaring for the permanent stay of Russian troops there. Such a policy puts both Russia and the West at odds. Armenia’s posturing to be the victim and depicting itself as the sacrificial lamb in the hands of “barbaric neighbors” does not resonate, as it is seen more of a fox in sheep’s skin.

The changed conditions in the region bodes unprecedented opportunities for regional cooperation and stability for far sighted statesperson to grasp. Approaches to normalizing relations with Turkey would be a concrete indicator on part of Armenia to that end. Unfortunately, the initial indications in the period under review of Armenia’s policy towards Turkey appears to be following centuries long practiced traditional pattern of submitting allegiance to rising powers and expecting moral and material rewards for availing itself to the service of those in adversity to Turkey.

Keywords

Pashinyan, Mirzoyan, Sarkissian, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran, Georgia, France, EU, Trilateral Moscow Agreements, Zangezur Corridor, 3+3 cooperation

OLAYLAR VE YORUMLAR

Abstract

Bu incelemede Ermenistan’ın iç ve dış dinamiklerinde ve Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkilerinde Temmuz-Aralık 2021 ayları arasındaki gelişmeler ele alınmaktadır. Karabağ’da 44 gün savaşının ve 9 Kasım Moskova Ateşkes Anlaşması ile tescil edilen ağır yenilginin ardından çalkantılı bir dönem geçiren Ermenistan, 20 Haziran erken seçimleri ve bu seçimlerden, birçok çevrenin tahminlerini ve beklentilerini hüsrana uğratan bir sonuçla, Başbakan Nikol Paşinyan’ın zaferle çıkması sonrası göreceli bir istikrara kavuşmuştur. Ancak, Ermenistan Parlamentosunda temsil olanağı bulan, eski yönetimlerin ileri gelen ve radikal unsurlarından oluşan küçük fakat sesini duyuran muhalefet ve militan yandaşları Paşinyan’ın hareket serbestisini kısıtlayan bir güç olmuştur. Paşinyan’ın seçim başarısında, bir yandan Rusya, diğer yandan AB ve ABD ile kıvrak ve hassas bir denge kurabilmesi belirleyici etki yapmıştır. Yeni kabinesini kuran ve Parlamentoda iddialı hükümet programını açıklayan Paşinyan’ı bekleyen zor görev, vadettiklerini yerine getirmesi ve vizyonunu uygulamaya geçirebilmesidir.

Paşinyan usta ve popülist bir politikacı olduğunu kanıtlamıştır. Şimdi gereken devlet adamlığıdır. Bunun yolu da, refah ve istikrarı gerçekleştirebilmek için, sinsice saati geriye döndürme çabasından vazgeçip, aldığı teşvik ve cesaretlendirmeleri bir kenara bırakıp, Karabağ gerçeğinin kabulünü halkına anlatabilmesinden geçmektedir. Ancak, değişen koşulları ve gerçekleri kabul etmek ve kalıcı bir barışı gerçekleştirmeye çalışmak yerine, Ermenistan’ın bir oyalama ve erteleme politikasına yöneldiği, halen Rus barış gücü askerlerinin koruması altında olan Karabağ’ın henüz Azerbaycan’a iade edilmemiş kesiminde işgalini sürdürebilme ham hayalinden vazgeçemediği görülmektedir. Ermenistan yönetiminin en üst mevkiinde bulunan Cumhurbaşkanının, Rus askerlerinin kalışının devamlı olması beyanı resmi kayıtlara geçmiştir. Böyle bir talep ve politika Batı’yı olduğu kadar Rusya’yı da zora sokmaktadır. Ermenistan’ın kendisini “barbar komşuları” karşısında kurbanlık kuzu göstererek mazlumu oynama taktiği etkisini yitirmekte, gerçekte kuzu postunda tilki olduğu görülmeye başlanmaktadır.

Bölgenin değişen koşulları bölgesel işbirliği ve istikrarın gerçekleşmesi yolunda, uzak görülü devlet adamları için, bugüne kadar görülmemiş olanaklar yaratmıştır. Türkiye ile ilişkilerin normalleşmesi yönündeki yaklaşımları Ermenistan bakımından bu yöndeki en somut göstergeyi oluşturacaktır. Ne yazık ki, incelenen dönemdeki ilk göstergeler, Ermenilerin yüzyıllar boyunca uygulaya geldikleri yükselen güçlere biat etme geleneğini, önemsenmek ve ödüllendirilmek üzere, Türkler ile ihtilafta bulunan taraflara hizmet sunma çizgisini izlemekte olduğu izlenimini vermektedir.

Keywords

Paşinyan, Mirzoyan, Sarkissian, Rusya, Azerbaycan, Türkiye, İran, Gürcistan, ABD, Fransa, AB, Üçlü Moskova Anlaşmaları, Zangezur Koridoru, 3+3 bölgesel işbirliği

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