OLAYLAR VE YORUMLAR

Year 2022, Issue: 46, 11 - 45, 30.12.2022

Alev Kılıç

Abstract

Bu incelemede 2020 yılında meydana gelen 44 gün savaşı sonrası Azerbaycan ile Ermenistan arasında başlayan barış anlaşması süreci, Ermenistan’daki iç gelişmeler, dış dinamikler ve Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkilerinin Haziran-Kasım 2022 tarihleri arasında gösterdiği gelişmeler ele alınmaktadır. Savaşın sona ermesinin ve Moskova’da Rusya’nın katılımıyla Azerbaycan ve Ermenistan taraflarınca imzalanan ateşkes anlaşmasının üzerinden iki yıl geçmesine rağmen barış anlaşmasının imzalanamamıştır. Bu aksaklığı Ermenistan’ın oyalama taktiklerine başvurarak bölgede farklı çıkarları bulunan üçüncü tarafları kullanıp mağlubiyet sonrası kayıplarını en aza indirme ve birtakım kazanımlar elde etme gayretleriyle açıklamak mümkündür. Diasporada militan-radikal bir kesim, içeride de Taşnaksutyun-EDF güdümüne girmiş sayıca az ancak militan bir muhalefet, hükümetin barış girişimlerine aktif olarak karşı koymaktadır. Bu durum yönetimi rahatsız etse de uygun bir bahane de yaratıyor gibi de görünmektedir. Barış anlaşmasının önündeki en ciddi engel sınırların tespitidir. Zira bu Karabağ’ın Azerbaycan sınırları içinde olduğunun resmen tanınmasını sağlayacaktır. Bunu perdelemek üzere yapay bir engel olarak Zangezur koridoru konusu ön plana çıkarılmaktadır. Dış ilişkilerde Rusya’nın hışmını çekmeden Batı’ya yanaşma çabaları, yeniden gündeme gelen çok vektörlü dış politika anlayışıyla uygulanmaktadır. ABD ve Fransa, daha tarafsız ve apolitik görünüm veren AB’nin de desteğiyle Ermenileri bu yönde cesaretlendirmekte, hatta tahrik etmektedir. Türkiye ile ilişkiler normalleşme süreci kapsamında adım adım da olsa ilerlemektedir. Ancak Ermenistan’ın Türk ve Türkiye karşıtı yaklaşımları bu süreçten hiçbir şekilde etkilenmemiş görünmektedir.

Keywords

Paşinyan, Kaçaturyan, Mirzoyev, Diaspora, Dünya Kiliseler Birliği, Taşnaksutyun-EDF, II. Karekin, I. Aram, Pelosi, Zangezur Koridoru

FACTS AND COMMENTS

Abstract

This article covers domestic and international developments of Armenia, the process for concluding the peace agreement with Azerbaijan following the 44-day war of 2020 and Türkiye-Armenia relations in the period of June-November 2022. Two full years have elapsed since the end of the war and the cease-fire agreement signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moscow with the participation of the Russian President. It is possible to explain this lapse with the efforts of Armenia using delaying tactics as it appeals to third states with own interests in the region, to minimize its losses and make some gains. There is an active resistance to the peace agreement initiatives of the government also by a radical-militant group in the Diaspora and an opposition in the country, small in numbers but led by the militant Dashnaksutyun-ARF. This is certainly a nuisance for the government, yet it also appears to provide it with a passable excuse. The most serious challenge before the peace agreement is the issue of delimitation and demarcation of the borders as it would lead to the acknowledgement of Karabakh to be within the boundaries of Azerbaijan. With a view to obviating this, an artificial and disputable issue called the Zangezur Corridor is being pushed to the fore. In foreign policy, the efforts to shift to the West without drawing the ire of Russia is being carried out with the re-fashioned concept of multi-vector foreign policy. The US and France, with the assistance of a more neutral and apolitical acting EU, came to the fore in encouraging, even instigating Armenians in this direction. Relations with Türkiye are moving forward in a step-by-step approach within the process of normalization. On the other hand, the long-established anti-Turk and anti-Türkiye stand of Armenia does not seem to be restrained despite this process.

Keywords

Pashinyan, Khachaturyan, Mirzoyev, Diaspora, World Council of Churches, Dashnaksutyun-ARF, Karekin II, Aram I, Pelosi, Zangezur Corridor

References

• “‘They weaken the Armenian world for the benefit of our enemies’: Murad Papazyan”. Aravot, July 19, 2022, https://www.aravot-en.am/2022/07/19/307739/ “Armenia Set For Double-Digit Growth In 2022”. Azatutyun, October 31, 2022, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32109235.html
• “Armenia to mourn victims of shopping mall explosion”. Interfax, August 16, 2022, https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/82284/
• “Armenia’s Budget for 2023 to Increase to $6.4 Billion Largest in the History of the Country”. MassisPost, November 1, 2022, https://massispost.com/2022/11/armenias-budget-for-2023-to-increase-to-6-4-billion-largest-in-the-history-of-the-country/
• “Armenia’s Security Council Secretary meets with French Co-Chair of OSCE Minsk Group in Paris”. ArmenPress, June 28, 2022, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1087111.html
• “Armenian FM meets with Bulgarian President”. ArmenPress, June 14, 2022, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1085911.html
• “Armenian opposition MP calls on all political forces to put aside differences and join the fight for Nagorno-Karabakh”. Arka News Agency, October 31, 2022, http://arka.am/en/news/politics/armenian_opposition_mp_calls_on_all_political_forces_to_put_aside_differences_and_join_the_fight_for/
• “Armenian President Appoints New Army Chief After Months Of Vacancy”. RFL/RL, July 15, 2022, https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-new-army-chief-asrian/31944932.html
• “Artsakh is celebrating 31st anniversary of declaration of statehood”. 1lurer, September 2, 2022, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2022/09/02/Artsakh-is-celebrating-31st-anniversary-of-declaration-of-statehood/787363
• “Artsakh milletvekilleri Kilikiya Katolikosu I. Aram ile bir araya geldi”. Ermeni Haber Ajansı, 27 Mayıs 2022, https://www.ermenihaber.am/tr/news/2022/05/27/Artsakh-milletvekilleri-Kilikiya-Katolikosu/231767
• “Brüksel'de Ermenistan Güvenlik Konseyi Sekreteri ile Azerbaycan Cumhurbaşkanı Yardımcısı Hikmet Haciyev görüştü”. ArmenPress, 2 Mayıs 2022, https://armenpress.am/tur/news/1082199/
• “Economy minister: After Turkey border opening Armenia will turn from ‘dead end’ into ‘crossroads’”. News.am, July 7, 2022, https://news.am/eng/news/710794.html
• “Erdoğan ile Paşinyan arasında ilk temas: Prag'da bir araya geldiler”. Cumhuriyet, 6 Ekim 2022, https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/turkiye/erdogan-ile-pasinyan-arasinda-ilk-temas-pragda-bir-araya-geldiler-1989357
• “FM Mirzoyan comments on Armenia-Turkey normalization process”. ArmenPress, June 9, 2022, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1085589/
• “Global Armenian Summit”. Office of the High Commissioner for Diaspora Affairs of Armenia, October 28, 2022, http://diaspora.gov.am/en/events/103/globalarmeniansummit
• “Lavrov: AB ve NATO, Rusya ile savaşmak için koalisyon kuruyor”. Cumhuriyet, 24 Haziran 2022, https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/dunya/lavrov-ab-ve-nato-rusya-ile-savasmak-icin-koalisyon-kuruyor-1950941
• “No: 212, 1 July 2022, Press Release Regarding the Meeting of the Special Representatives for the Normalization Process Between Türkiye and Armenia, Ambassador Serdar Kılıç and Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Ruben Rubinyan”. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Türkiye, July 1, 2022, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-212_-turkiye-ve-ermenistan-normallesme-sureci-ozel-temsilcileri-nin---gorusmeleri-hk.en.mfa
• “Opposition Leader Saghatelyan Meets European Parliamentarians”. Oragark, July 6, 2022, https://www.oragark.com/saghatleyan-visits-strasbourg-meets-european-parliamentarians/
• “Pashinyan Claims He Has Not Signed Agreement with Azerbaijan”. Asbarez, September 14, 2022, https://asbarez.com/pashinyan-claims-he-has-not-signed-agreement-with-azerbaijan/
• “Pashinyan says he is ready to sign document that would make people call him traitor”. Arka News Agency, September 14, 2022, http://arka.am/en/news/politics/pashinyan_says_he_is_ready_to_sign_document_that_would_make_people_call_him_traitor/
• “Pashinyan, Putin Meet in Vladivostok, Discuss Karabakh, Economic Issues”. Hetq, September 7, 2022, https://hetq.am/en/article/147994
• “Paşinyanın İrana səfəri dönüş nöqtəsi olacaq”, İ.Rəisi”. TRT Azerbaycan, 1 Kasım 2022, https://www.trt.net.tr/azerbaycan/bolg-x-b-rl-ri/2022/11/01/pasinyanin-irana-s-f-ri-donus-noqt-si-olacaq-i-r-isi-1900625
• “President of Artsakh receives delegation led by Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo”. 1lurer, May 27, 2022, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2022/05/27/President-of-Artsakh-receives-delegation-led-by-Mayor-of-Paris-Anne-Hidalgo/730815
• “Press statement by President Charles Michel following the trilateral meeting with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Pashinyan of Armenia, 31 August 2022”. European Council, August 31, 2022, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/08/31/press-statement-by-president-charles-michel-following-the-trilateral-meeting-with-president-aliyev-of-azerbaijan-and-prime-minister-pashinayn-of-armenia-31-august-2022/
• “Proposal to erect a statue of Jesus on Mount Hatis sparks concern among experts, Yerevani residents”. Jam News, July 12, 2022, https://jam-news.net/proposal-to-erect-a-statue-of-jesus-on-mount-hatis-sparks-concern-among-experts-yerevani-residents/
• “Rubinyan notes lack of progress in talks with Turkey ahead of Vienna meeting”. Karabkhspace.eu, June 20, 2022, https://karabakhspace.commonspace.eu/news/rubinyan-notes-lack-progress-talks-turkey-ahead-vienna-meeting
• “Russia asks Armenia to explain banning lawmaker Zatulin and RT head Margarita Simonyan”. ArmenPress, October 27, 2022, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1095843.html
• “Saghatelyan and Vahe Hakobyan recalled from their positions in National Assembly of Armenia”. Arminfo, July 1, 2022, https://arminfo.info/full_news.php?id=70330&lang=3
• “Saghatelyan: We will start process of removing Prime Minister when we have favorable conditions for it”. News.am, August 22, 2022, https://news.am/eng/news/716998.html
• “Secretary Antony J. Blinken, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, And Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov Before Their Meeting”. US Department of State, November 7, 2022 https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-armenian-foreign-minister-ararat-mirzoyan-and-azerbaijani-foreign-minister-jeyhun-bayramov-before-their-meeting/
• “Security Service Wants Stricter Citizenship Rules For Diaspora Armenians”. Azatutyun, July 13, 2022, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/31942023.html
• “Speaker Pelosi Remarks at Congressional Delegation Press Conference with Armenian Speaker Alen Simonyan”. US Embassy in Armenia, September 18, 2022, https://am.usembassy.gov/speaker-pelosi-remarks/
• “Statement by President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and President of the Russian Federation”. Presidency of Azerbaijan, https://president.az/en/articles/view/57744
• “The U.S. Embassy to Armenia welcomes Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried to Yerevan”. US Embassy in Armenia, June 18, 2022, https://am.usembassy.gov/embassy-welcomes-donfried/
• “U.S. Appoints New OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair”. Hetq, August 25, 2022, https://hetq.am/en/article/147636
• “US will continue to participate in Minsk Group format" - US Assistant State Secretary in Yerevan”. Jam News, June 22, 2022, https://jam-news.net/us-will-continue-to-participate-in-minsk-group-format-us-assistant-state-secretary-in-yerevan/
• “World Council of Churches General Assembly speaks to issues in the Middle East and Europe”. GlobalMinistries.org, September 8, 2022, https://www.globalministries.org/world-council-of-churches-general-assembly-speaks-to-issues-in-the-middle-east-and-europe/
• “Zakharova: ‘EU's real desire has nothing to do with normalization of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations’”. Apa.az, August 31, 2022, https://apa.az/en/foreign-policy/zakharova-eus-real-desire-has-nothing-to-do-with-normalization-of-azerbaijani-armenian-relations-383743
• Avanesov, Alexandr. “Ministry of Internal Affairs to be reestablished in Armenia”. Arminfo, July 7, 2022, https://arminfo.info/full_news.php?id=70416&lang=3
• Avanesov, Alexandr. “Murad Papazyan intends to fight by all legal means to restore his right to return to Armenia – statement”. Arminfo, July 28, 2022, https://arminfo.info/full_news.php?id=70684&lang=3
• Avetisyan, Ani and Ismi Aghayev. “Pashinyan confirms the city of Lachin to be handed to Azerbaijan”. OC Media, June 28, 2022, https://oc-media.org/pashinyan-confirms-the-city-of-lachin-to-be-handed-to-azerbaijan/
• Brzozowski, Alexandra. “EU deploys Armenia-Azerbaijan border-monitoring mission, but questions remain”. Euractiv, October 18, 2022, https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/eu-deploys-armenia-azerbaijan-border-monitoring-mission-but-questions-remain/
• Gazanchyan, Siranush. “Armenia, Greece, Cyprus to cooperate on Diaspora issues”. Public Radio of Armenia, June 24, 2022, https://en.armradio.am/2022/06/24/armenia-greece-cyprus-to-cooperate-on-diaspora-issues/
• Mejlumyan, Ani. “Construction of massive Jesus statue in Armenia suspended”. Eurasianet, July 12, 2022, https://eurasianet.org/construction-of-massive-jesus-statue-in-armenia-suspended Shahverdyan, Lilit. “Russian parliamentarian banned from entering Armenia”. Eurasianet, October 26, 2022, https://eurasianet.org/russian-parliamentarian-banned-from-entering-armenia
• Tosun, Mehmet. “Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan, Prag'da Ermenistan Başbakanı Paşinyan'ı kabul etti”. Anadolu Ajansı, 6 Ekim 2022, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/gundem/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-pragda-ermenistan-basbakani-pasinyani-kabul-etti/2704585