Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Tüketim ve Tasarruf İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi

Year 2018, Volume: 4 Issue: 7, 13 - 41, 30.06.2018

Dilara Ayla , Alaattin Kızıltan

Abstract

ÖZ: Enflasyon, tüketim ve tasarruf
değişkenlerinin ekonomilerin temel dinamiklerinden olduğu bilinmektedir. Ancak
bu değişkenler arasındaki etkileşim ve neden-sonuç ilişkileri ekonomik
konjonktüre bağlı olarak değişiklik gösterebilmektedir. Nitekim birbiri
üzerindeki etkileri kalkınma politikaları açısından oldukça önemli olan bu
değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik olup olmadıkları ve nedensellik ilişkilerinin yönü
sıklıkla araştırılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1980-2016 dönemi itibariyle Türkiye
ekonomisinde enflasyon, tüketim ve tasarruf değişkenleri arasındaki eşbütünleşme
ve neden-sonuç ilişkisi Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme testi ve hata düzeltme
modeline dayalı nedensellik yöntemiyle araştırılmıştır. Engle-Granger analizi
sonucunda, değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik olduğu, başka bir ifadeyle ilgili
değişkenlerin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettikleri belirlenmiştir. Nedensellik
analizi sonuçları ise, kısa dönemde enflasyondan tüketim ve tasarrufa doğru tek
yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Bununla birlikte uzun
dönem sonuçlarına göre, enflasyon ile tüketim ve enflasyon ile tasarruf
arasında karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu gözlenmiştir. Bu bağlamda en
küçük kareler yöntemi sonuçlarına göre, enflasyon ile tasarruflar arasında
doğru, tüketim arasında ise ters yönlü bir ilişki söz konusudur.

Keywords

Enflasyon Tasarruf hata düzeltme

References

  • Athukorala, P. ve Sen, K. (2004). The Determinants of Private Saving in India. World Development, 32(3), 491-503.
  • Bernheim, B. D., Shleifer, A. ve Summers, L. H. (1985). The Strategic Bequest Motive. Journal of Political Economy, 93(6), 1045-1076.
  • Campbell, J. (1987). Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of Permanent Income Hypotesis. Econometrica, 55(6), 1249-1273.
  • Celasun, M. ve Tansel, A. (1993). Distributional Effects and Saving Investment Behaviour in Liberalizing Economy: The Case of Turkey. Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, 20, 269-298.
  • Davis A. L. (2013). The Long Run Determinants of Private Domestic Savings in Ghana: A Cointegration Approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(4), 125-136.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Dirschmid, W. ve Glatzer, E. (2004). Determinants of The Household Saving in Austria. Monetary Policy & The Economy, 4, 25-38.
  • Duesenberry, J. (1949). Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • El-Seoud, M. S. (2014). The Effect of İnterest Rate, İnflation Rate and GDP on National Savings Rate. Global Journal of Commerce & Management Perspective, 3(3), 1-7.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
  • Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1988). Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality. Journal of Econometrics, Vol.39, 199-211.
  • Feldstein, M. (1974). Social Security, Induced Retirement and Aggregate Capital Accumulation. Journal of Political Economy, 82(5), 905-926.
  • Fisher, I. (1930). The Theory of Interest. New York: MacMillan.
  • Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Fuller, W. A. (1976). Introduction to Statistical Time Series. New York, John Wiley & Sons.
  • Hall, R. E. (1978). Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 86(67), 971-987.
  • Hallaq, S. (2003). Determinants of Private Saving: The Case of Jordan (1976-2000). Journal of King Saud University, 15(2), 83-94.
  • Hayek, F. (1932). Dr Hayek on Money and Capital: a Reply. Economic Journal, 42, 237-249.
  • Hayek, F. (1941). The Pure Theory of Capital. London: Routledge and K. Paul.
  • Hondroyiannis, G. (2006). Private Saving Determinants in European Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach. The Social Science Journal, 43, 553–569.
  • Hussein, K.H. ve Thirlwall, A.P.(1999). Explaining Differences in Domestic Savings Ratio Across Countries: A Panel Data Studies. Journal of Development Studies, 36(1), 31-52.
  • Kalkınma Bakanlığı (2013), Onuncu Kalkınma Planı (2014-2018), Ankara.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: MacMillan.
  • Khalil A. ve Haider M., (2013). Macroeconomic Determinants of National Savings Revisited: A Small Open Economy of Pakistan. World Applied Sciences Journal, 21(1), 49-57.
  • Koskela, E. ve Viren, M. (1985). Anticipated Versus ‘Surprise’ İnflation in Household Consumption Behaviour. Economics Letters, 17(1-2), 77-81.
  • Kotlikoff, L. J. (1988). Intergenerational Transfers and Savings. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(2), 41-58.
  • Kotlikoff, L. J. ve Spivak, A. (1981). The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market. Journal of Political Economy, 89(2), 372-391.
  • Kotlikoff, L. J. ve Summers, L. H. (1981). The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Capital Accumulation. Journal of Political Economy, 89(4), 706-732.
  • Kuznets, S. (1946). National Product Since 1869. National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Laibson, D. (1997). Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2), 443-477.
  • Leland, H. E. (1968). Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 82(3), 465–473.
  • Loayza, N., Klaus, S. H. ve Serven, L. (2000). What Drives Private Saving Across The World. The Review of Economics and Statisties, 82, 165-181.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1991). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests. in R. F. Engle and C. W.J. Granger (eds.), Long-Run Economic Relationships-Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press, 267-276.
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2009). Macroeconomics. (18.b.), United States of America: Worth Publishers.
  • Modigliani, F. (1986). Life Cycle, Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations. The American Economic Review, 76(3), 297-313.
  • Modigliani, F. ve Brumberg, R. H. (1954). Utility Analysis and The Consumption Function: An Interpretation Of Cross-Section Data. K. K. (Editör) içinde, Post-Keynesian Economics, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press.
  • Nwachukwu E. ve Egwaikhide O., (2007). An Error-Correction Model of The Determinants of Private Saving in Nigeria. African Economic Society (AES) Conference, Cape Town, South Africa, July.
  • Özcan, K., Gunay A. ve Ertac, S. (2003). Determinants of Private Savings Behavior in Turkey. Applied Economics, 25(12), 1405- 1416.
  • Quattara B.(2004). The Impact of Project Aid and Programme Aid Inflows on Domestic Savings: A Case Study of Cote d’Ivoire. In Centre for the Study of African Economies Conference on Growth, Poverty Reduction and Human Development in Africa (21-22), Erişim Tarihi: 15/09/2017. www.csqe.ox.ac.uk /conferences/2004-GPRaHDİA/papers/1m-Quattar-CSAE200 4.pdf.
  • Pigou, A. C. (1943). The Classical Stationary State. Economic Journal, 53(212), 343-351.
  • Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A Mathematical Theory of Saving. The Economic Journal, 38(152), 543-559.
  • Sachs, J. (1981). The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in The 1970s. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1981(1), 201-282.
  • Shiimi I.W. ve Kadhikwa G.(1999). Savings and Investment in Namibia, Bank of Namibia. Bon OccasionalPaper,2, Erişim Tarihi: 15/09/2017. www.bon.con.na/docs/pub/Savings%20 and%20Investment%20in%20Namibia.pdf.
  • Smithies, A. (1945). Forecasting Postwar Demand: I. Econometrica, 13(1), 1-14.
  • Ünsal, E. (2009). Makro İktisat. (8 b.), Ankara: İmaj Yayınevi.
  • Van Rıjckeghem, C. ve Üçer, M. (2009). Türkiye’de Tasarruf Oranı’nın Evrimi ve Başlıca Belirleyicileri: Doğru Politikalar İçin Çıkartılacak Dersler. TÜSİAD Yayınları, Yayın No: TÜSİAD-T/2009-02 /482, İstanbul, 1-82.
  • Wan, J. (2011). Bubbly Saving. (J. Fukuoka University, Dü.) Center For Advanced Economic Study (CAES) (10), 1-36.
  • Yamak, R. ve Korkmaz, A. (2006). Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Etkisi: Literatür Ve Türkiye Örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 20, Sayı: 1, 57-69.
  • Yentürk, N. (2003). Birikimin Kaynakları. Köse, A., Şenses, F. ve Yeldan, E., içinde, İktisadi Kalkınma, Kriz ve İstikrar, İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.

Year 2018, Volume: 4 Issue: 7, 13 - 41, 30.06.2018

Dilara Ayla , Alaattin Kızıltan

Abstract

References

  • Athukorala, P. ve Sen, K. (2004). The Determinants of Private Saving in India. World Development, 32(3), 491-503.
  • Bernheim, B. D., Shleifer, A. ve Summers, L. H. (1985). The Strategic Bequest Motive. Journal of Political Economy, 93(6), 1045-1076.
  • Campbell, J. (1987). Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of Permanent Income Hypotesis. Econometrica, 55(6), 1249-1273.
  • Celasun, M. ve Tansel, A. (1993). Distributional Effects and Saving Investment Behaviour in Liberalizing Economy: The Case of Turkey. Middle East Technical University Studies in Development, 20, 269-298.
  • Davis A. L. (2013). The Long Run Determinants of Private Domestic Savings in Ghana: A Cointegration Approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(4), 125-136.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Dirschmid, W. ve Glatzer, E. (2004). Determinants of The Household Saving in Austria. Monetary Policy & The Economy, 4, 25-38.
  • Duesenberry, J. (1949). Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • El-Seoud, M. S. (2014). The Effect of İnterest Rate, İnflation Rate and GDP on National Savings Rate. Global Journal of Commerce & Management Perspective, 3(3), 1-7.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
  • Engle, R. F. ve Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1988). Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality. Journal of Econometrics, Vol.39, 199-211.
  • Feldstein, M. (1974). Social Security, Induced Retirement and Aggregate Capital Accumulation. Journal of Political Economy, 82(5), 905-926.
  • Fisher, I. (1930). The Theory of Interest. New York: MacMillan.
  • Friedman, M. (1957). A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Fuller, W. A. (1976). Introduction to Statistical Time Series. New York, John Wiley & Sons.
  • Hall, R. E. (1978). Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 86(67), 971-987.
  • Hallaq, S. (2003). Determinants of Private Saving: The Case of Jordan (1976-2000). Journal of King Saud University, 15(2), 83-94.
  • Hayek, F. (1932). Dr Hayek on Money and Capital: a Reply. Economic Journal, 42, 237-249.
  • Hayek, F. (1941). The Pure Theory of Capital. London: Routledge and K. Paul.
  • Hondroyiannis, G. (2006). Private Saving Determinants in European Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach. The Social Science Journal, 43, 553–569.
  • Hussein, K.H. ve Thirlwall, A.P.(1999). Explaining Differences in Domestic Savings Ratio Across Countries: A Panel Data Studies. Journal of Development Studies, 36(1), 31-52.
  • Kalkınma Bakanlığı (2013), Onuncu Kalkınma Planı (2014-2018), Ankara.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: MacMillan.
  • Khalil A. ve Haider M., (2013). Macroeconomic Determinants of National Savings Revisited: A Small Open Economy of Pakistan. World Applied Sciences Journal, 21(1), 49-57.
  • Koskela, E. ve Viren, M. (1985). Anticipated Versus ‘Surprise’ İnflation in Household Consumption Behaviour. Economics Letters, 17(1-2), 77-81.
  • Kotlikoff, L. J. (1988). Intergenerational Transfers and Savings. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(2), 41-58.
  • Kotlikoff, L. J. ve Spivak, A. (1981). The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market. Journal of Political Economy, 89(2), 372-391.
  • Kotlikoff, L. J. ve Summers, L. H. (1981). The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Capital Accumulation. Journal of Political Economy, 89(4), 706-732.
  • Kuznets, S. (1946). National Product Since 1869. National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Laibson, D. (1997). Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2), 443-477.
  • Leland, H. E. (1968). Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 82(3), 465–473.
  • Loayza, N., Klaus, S. H. ve Serven, L. (2000). What Drives Private Saving Across The World. The Review of Economics and Statisties, 82, 165-181.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1991). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests. in R. F. Engle and C. W.J. Granger (eds.), Long-Run Economic Relationships-Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press, 267-276.
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2009). Macroeconomics. (18.b.), United States of America: Worth Publishers.
  • Modigliani, F. (1986). Life Cycle, Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations. The American Economic Review, 76(3), 297-313.
  • Modigliani, F. ve Brumberg, R. H. (1954). Utility Analysis and The Consumption Function: An Interpretation Of Cross-Section Data. K. K. (Editör) içinde, Post-Keynesian Economics, New Jersey: Rutgers University Press.
  • Nwachukwu E. ve Egwaikhide O., (2007). An Error-Correction Model of The Determinants of Private Saving in Nigeria. African Economic Society (AES) Conference, Cape Town, South Africa, July.
  • Özcan, K., Gunay A. ve Ertac, S. (2003). Determinants of Private Savings Behavior in Turkey. Applied Economics, 25(12), 1405- 1416.
  • Quattara B.(2004). The Impact of Project Aid and Programme Aid Inflows on Domestic Savings: A Case Study of Cote d’Ivoire. In Centre for the Study of African Economies Conference on Growth, Poverty Reduction and Human Development in Africa (21-22), Erişim Tarihi: 15/09/2017. www.csqe.ox.ac.uk /conferences/2004-GPRaHDİA/papers/1m-Quattar-CSAE200 4.pdf.
  • Pigou, A. C. (1943). The Classical Stationary State. Economic Journal, 53(212), 343-351.
  • Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A Mathematical Theory of Saving. The Economic Journal, 38(152), 543-559.
  • Sachs, J. (1981). The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in The 1970s. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1981(1), 201-282.
  • Shiimi I.W. ve Kadhikwa G.(1999). Savings and Investment in Namibia, Bank of Namibia. Bon OccasionalPaper,2, Erişim Tarihi: 15/09/2017. www.bon.con.na/docs/pub/Savings%20 and%20Investment%20in%20Namibia.pdf.
  • Smithies, A. (1945). Forecasting Postwar Demand: I. Econometrica, 13(1), 1-14.
  • Ünsal, E. (2009). Makro İktisat. (8 b.), Ankara: İmaj Yayınevi.
  • Van Rıjckeghem, C. ve Üçer, M. (2009). Türkiye’de Tasarruf Oranı’nın Evrimi ve Başlıca Belirleyicileri: Doğru Politikalar İçin Çıkartılacak Dersler. TÜSİAD Yayınları, Yayın No: TÜSİAD-T/2009-02 /482, İstanbul, 1-82.
  • Wan, J. (2011). Bubbly Saving. (J. Fukuoka University, Dü.) Center For Advanced Economic Study (CAES) (10), 1-36.
  • Yamak, R. ve Korkmaz, A. (2006). Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Etkisi: Literatür Ve Türkiye Örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 20, Sayı: 1, 57-69.
  • Yentürk, N. (2003). Birikimin Kaynakları. Köse, A., Şenses, F. ve Yeldan, E., içinde, İktisadi Kalkınma, Kriz ve İstikrar, İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Dilara Ayla

Alaattin Kızıltan

Publication Date June 30, 2018
Submission Date May 6, 2018
Acceptance Date May 14, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 4 Issue: 7

Cite

ISNAD Ayla, Dilara - Kızıltan, Alaattin. “Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Tüketim Ve Tasarruf İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi”. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 4/7 (June 2018), 13-41.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan University Journal of Social Sciences © 2015 is licensed with Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NonDerivative 4.0 (CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0).