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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES: PANEL GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Year 2019, Issue: 112, 53 - 74, 01.03.2019

Barış Yıldız Gizem Akbulut Yıldız

Abstract

The present article aims to examine the causal relationship between military expenditures and economic growth in five Middle Eastern countries Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Oman and Turkey in the period from 1990 to 2015. For this purpose, Panel Bootstrap Causality Analysis was conducted to test whether there is a relationship between military expenditures and economic growth. The relationship between the variables was examined by panel causality analysis developed by Konya 2006 . In the analysis, a two-way causality relation was determined only for Iran on a country basis. The finding throughout the panel is that there is a one-way causality relationship from economic growth to military expenditures.

Keywords

Military Expenditures Economic Growth Panel Bootstrap Causality Middle Eastern Countries

References

  • Abu-Bader, S. ve Abu-Qarn, A. S. (2003), “Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 25(6), 567-583.
  • Abu‐Qarn, A. S. (2010), “The Defence–Growth Nexus Revisited: Evidence from the Israeli–Arab Conflict”, Defence and Peace Economics, 21(4), 291-300.
  • Ajmair, M., Hussain, K., Abbassi, F. A. ve Gohar, M. (2018). “The Impact of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth of Pakistan”, Applied Economics and Finance, 5(2), 41-48
  • Alptekin, A. ve Levine, P. (2012), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Meta Analysis”, European Journal of Political Economy, 28(4), 636-650.
  • Antonakis, N. (1997), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Greece,1960-90”, Journal of Peace Research, 34(1), 89-100.
  • Benoit, E. (1978), “Growth and Defense in Developing Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280.
  • Biswas, B. ve Ram, R. (1986), “Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34 (2), 361-372.
  • BP (2018), BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, 67th Edition, June. Cappelen, Å., Gleditsch, N. P. ve Bjerkholt, O. (1984), “Military Spending and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries”, Journal of Peace Research, 21(4), 361-373.
  • Castillo, J., Lowell, J., Tellis, A. J., Munoz, J. ve Zycher, B. (2001), Military Expenditures and Economic Growth (No. RAND-MR-1112-A), Rand Arroyo Center Santa Monica CA, https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_ reports/MR1112.html (Erişim Tarihi: 09.09.2018).
  • Dakurah, A. H., Davies, S. P. ve Sampath, R. K. (2001), “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Causality Analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), ss. 651-658.
  • Dash, D. P., Bal, D. P. ve Sahoo, M. (2016), “Nexus Between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in BRIC Economies: An Empirical Investigation”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 1(606), ss. 89-102.
  • Deger, S. (1986), “Economic Development and Defense Expenditure”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), ss.179-196.
  • Dunne, J. P., Ron P. S. ve Dirk W. (2005), “Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A Critical Revıew”, Defence and Peace Economics, 16:6, 449- 461, Doi: 10.1080/10242690500167791
  • Dunne, J. P. ve Nikolaidou, E. (2012), “Defence Spending and Economic Growth in the EU15”, Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), ss.537-548.
  • Eğilmez, M. (6 Mayıs 2018), Silahlanma/Savunma Harcamaları, Kendime Yazılar, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2018/05/silahlanma-savunmaharcamalar.html (Erişim Tarihi: 23.08.2018).
  • Farzanegan, M. R. (2014), “Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran”, Defence and Peace Economics, 25(3), 247-269.
  • Frederiksen, P. C. ve Looney, R. E. (1982), “Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Development Countries: Some Further Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Economic Development, 113-125.
  • Galvin, H. (2003), “The Impact of Defence Spending on the Economic Growth of Developing Countries: A Cross-Section Study”, Defence and Peace Economics, 14(1), 51-59, DOI: 10.1080/10242690302932.
  • Gerace, M. P. (2002), “US Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Spectra Methods”, Defence and Peace Economics, 13(1), 1-11, DOI: 10.1080/10242690210966.
  • Giray, F. (2004), “Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 181-199.
  • Hou, N. ve Chen, B. (2013), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from System GMM Estimates”, Defence and Peace Economics, 24(3), 183-193.
  • Kalyoncu, H. ve Yucel, F. (2006), “An Analytical Approach on Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey and Greece”, Journal of Economic Studies, 33(5), 336-343.
  • Kollias, C., Manolas, G. ve Paleologou, S. M. (2004), “Defence Expenditure and Economic Growth in the European Union: A Causality Analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(5), 553-569.
  • Konya, L. (2006), “Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with A Panel Data”, Approach. Economic Modelling, (23), 978- 992.
  • Korkmaz, Ö. ve Bilgin, T. (2017), “Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi”, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (18), 289-316.
  • Lai, C. C., Shieh, J. Y. ve Chang, W. Y. (2002), “Endogenous Growth and Defense Expenditures: A New Explanation of the Benoit Hypothesis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 13(3), 179-186.
  • Lebovic, J. H. ve Ishaq, A. (1987), “Military Burden, Security Needs, and Economic Growth in the Middle East”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 31(1), 106-138.
  • Lim, D. (1983), “Another Look at Growth and Defense in Less Developed Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31(2), 377-384.
  • Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014), “Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New Insights from A Panel Causality Approach”, Economic Modelling, (37), 386-394.
  • Mueller, M. J. ve Atesoglu, H. S. (1993), “Defense Spending, Technological Change, and Economic Growth in the United States”, Defence Economics, 4(3), 259-269, DOI: 10.1080/10430719308404765.
  • Mutascu, M. (2015), A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis of Government Revenues and Expenditures in the PIIGS Countries, halshs-01111809, version 1, https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01111809/ (Erişim Tarihi:15.09.2018).
  • OECD (2018), Developments in Individual OECD and Selected Non-Member Economies, OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018, Issue 1 – Preliminary Version, 169-171.
  • OECD (2018), OECD Economic Surveys Israel, Overview. http://www.oecd.org/ eco/surveys/ economic-survey-israel.htm (Erişim Tarihi:19.08.2018).
  • Pan, C. I., Chang, T. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015), “Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test”, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 443-456.
  • Pradhan, R. P. (2010), “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in China, India, Nepal and Pakistan: Evidence from Cointegrated Panel Analysis”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(4), 65-74.
  • SIPRI (2017), Military Expenditure Database, https://www.sipri.org/databases/ milex, (Erişim Tarihi:09.06.2018).
  • Sheikh, M. R., Akhtar, M. H., Abbas, A. ve Mushtaq M. I. (2017), “Military Spending, Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan”, Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 55 (2), 491-509.
  • STM ThinkTech (08.02.2018), Küresel Askeri Harcama Trendleri, https:// thinktech.stm.com. tr/uploads/raporlar/pdf/2322018154417295_stm_ blog_kureselaskeriharcama.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.09.2018).
  • Tian, N. ve Silva, D. P, (4 September 2017), Improving South American Military Expenditure Data, SIPRI, https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topicalbackgrounder/2017/improving-south-american-military-expendituredata, (Erişim Tarihi:28.08.2018).
  • Torbat, A. E. (2005), “Impacts of the US Trade and Financial Sanctions on Iran”, World Economy, 28(3), 407-434.
  • Turan, Y. (2013), İsrail 2013, Ortadoğu Yıllığı, 115-128.
  • UNARM (2018), Background, What is Military Expenditure?, http://www.unarm.org/Milex/ Background.aspx, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.08.2018).
  • Wang, T. P., Shyu, S. H. P. ve Chou, H. C. (2012), “The Impact of Defense Expenditure on Economic Productivity in OECD Countries”, Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2104-2114.
  • Wijeweera, A. ve Webb, M. J. (2011), “Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 22(5), 545-554.
  • World Bank (2017), Data Bank, World Development Indicators. Yıldırım, J., Sezgin, S. ve Öcal, N. (2005), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283-295.

Ortadoğu Ülkelerinde Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Bootstrap Panel Granger Nedensellik Analizi

Year 2019, Issue: 112, 53 - 74, 01.03.2019

Barış Yıldız Gizem Akbulut Yıldız

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı, 1990-2015 döneminde beş Orta Doğu ülkesine İran, İsrail, Suudi Arabistan, Umman ve Türkiye ilişkin askeri harcamalar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaya yöneliktir. Bu amaçla çalışmada, Panel Bootstrap Nedensellik Analizi yapılarak askeri harcamalar ile ekonomik büyüme arasında bir ilişkinin olup olmadığı test edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki Konya 2006 tarafından geliştirilen panel nedensellik analizi ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonucuna göre ülke bazında sadece İran için çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Panel genelinde ise ekonomik büyümeden askeri harcamalara tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

Askeri Harcamalar Ekonomik Büyüme Panel Bootstrap Nedensellik Orta Doğu Ülkeleri.

References

  • Abu-Bader, S. ve Abu-Qarn, A. S. (2003), “Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 25(6), 567-583.
  • Abu‐Qarn, A. S. (2010), “The Defence–Growth Nexus Revisited: Evidence from the Israeli–Arab Conflict”, Defence and Peace Economics, 21(4), 291-300.
  • Ajmair, M., Hussain, K., Abbassi, F. A. ve Gohar, M. (2018). “The Impact of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth of Pakistan”, Applied Economics and Finance, 5(2), 41-48
  • Alptekin, A. ve Levine, P. (2012), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Meta Analysis”, European Journal of Political Economy, 28(4), 636-650.
  • Antonakis, N. (1997), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Greece,1960-90”, Journal of Peace Research, 34(1), 89-100.
  • Benoit, E. (1978), “Growth and Defense in Developing Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280.
  • Biswas, B. ve Ram, R. (1986), “Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34 (2), 361-372.
  • BP (2018), BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018, 67th Edition, June. Cappelen, Å., Gleditsch, N. P. ve Bjerkholt, O. (1984), “Military Spending and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries”, Journal of Peace Research, 21(4), 361-373.
  • Castillo, J., Lowell, J., Tellis, A. J., Munoz, J. ve Zycher, B. (2001), Military Expenditures and Economic Growth (No. RAND-MR-1112-A), Rand Arroyo Center Santa Monica CA, https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_ reports/MR1112.html (Erişim Tarihi: 09.09.2018).
  • Dakurah, A. H., Davies, S. P. ve Sampath, R. K. (2001), “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Causality Analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6), ss. 651-658.
  • Dash, D. P., Bal, D. P. ve Sahoo, M. (2016), “Nexus Between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in BRIC Economies: An Empirical Investigation”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 1(606), ss. 89-102.
  • Deger, S. (1986), “Economic Development and Defense Expenditure”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 35(1), ss.179-196.
  • Dunne, J. P., Ron P. S. ve Dirk W. (2005), “Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A Critical Revıew”, Defence and Peace Economics, 16:6, 449- 461, Doi: 10.1080/10242690500167791
  • Dunne, J. P. ve Nikolaidou, E. (2012), “Defence Spending and Economic Growth in the EU15”, Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), ss.537-548.
  • Eğilmez, M. (6 Mayıs 2018), Silahlanma/Savunma Harcamaları, Kendime Yazılar, http://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2018/05/silahlanma-savunmaharcamalar.html (Erişim Tarihi: 23.08.2018).
  • Farzanegan, M. R. (2014), “Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran”, Defence and Peace Economics, 25(3), 247-269.
  • Frederiksen, P. C. ve Looney, R. E. (1982), “Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Development Countries: Some Further Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Economic Development, 113-125.
  • Galvin, H. (2003), “The Impact of Defence Spending on the Economic Growth of Developing Countries: A Cross-Section Study”, Defence and Peace Economics, 14(1), 51-59, DOI: 10.1080/10242690302932.
  • Gerace, M. P. (2002), “US Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Spectra Methods”, Defence and Peace Economics, 13(1), 1-11, DOI: 10.1080/10242690210966.
  • Giray, F. (2004), “Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1), 181-199.
  • Hou, N. ve Chen, B. (2013), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from System GMM Estimates”, Defence and Peace Economics, 24(3), 183-193.
  • Kalyoncu, H. ve Yucel, F. (2006), “An Analytical Approach on Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey and Greece”, Journal of Economic Studies, 33(5), 336-343.
  • Kollias, C., Manolas, G. ve Paleologou, S. M. (2004), “Defence Expenditure and Economic Growth in the European Union: A Causality Analysis”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(5), 553-569.
  • Konya, L. (2006), “Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with A Panel Data”, Approach. Economic Modelling, (23), 978- 992.
  • Korkmaz, Ö. ve Bilgin, T. (2017), “Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi”, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, (18), 289-316.
  • Lai, C. C., Shieh, J. Y. ve Chang, W. Y. (2002), “Endogenous Growth and Defense Expenditures: A New Explanation of the Benoit Hypothesis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 13(3), 179-186.
  • Lebovic, J. H. ve Ishaq, A. (1987), “Military Burden, Security Needs, and Economic Growth in the Middle East”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 31(1), 106-138.
  • Lim, D. (1983), “Another Look at Growth and Defense in Less Developed Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 31(2), 377-384.
  • Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014), “Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in African Countries: New Insights from A Panel Causality Approach”, Economic Modelling, (37), 386-394.
  • Mueller, M. J. ve Atesoglu, H. S. (1993), “Defense Spending, Technological Change, and Economic Growth in the United States”, Defence Economics, 4(3), 259-269, DOI: 10.1080/10430719308404765.
  • Mutascu, M. (2015), A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis of Government Revenues and Expenditures in the PIIGS Countries, halshs-01111809, version 1, https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01111809/ (Erişim Tarihi:15.09.2018).
  • OECD (2018), Developments in Individual OECD and Selected Non-Member Economies, OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018, Issue 1 – Preliminary Version, 169-171.
  • OECD (2018), OECD Economic Surveys Israel, Overview. http://www.oecd.org/ eco/surveys/ economic-survey-israel.htm (Erişim Tarihi:19.08.2018).
  • Pan, C. I., Chang, T. ve Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015), “Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test”, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(4), 443-456.
  • Pradhan, R. P. (2010), “Defense Spending and Economic Growth in China, India, Nepal and Pakistan: Evidence from Cointegrated Panel Analysis”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2(4), 65-74.
  • SIPRI (2017), Military Expenditure Database, https://www.sipri.org/databases/ milex, (Erişim Tarihi:09.06.2018).
  • Sheikh, M. R., Akhtar, M. H., Abbas, A. ve Mushtaq M. I. (2017), “Military Spending, Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan”, Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 55 (2), 491-509.
  • STM ThinkTech (08.02.2018), Küresel Askeri Harcama Trendleri, https:// thinktech.stm.com. tr/uploads/raporlar/pdf/2322018154417295_stm_ blog_kureselaskeriharcama.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.09.2018).
  • Tian, N. ve Silva, D. P, (4 September 2017), Improving South American Military Expenditure Data, SIPRI, https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topicalbackgrounder/2017/improving-south-american-military-expendituredata, (Erişim Tarihi:28.08.2018).
  • Torbat, A. E. (2005), “Impacts of the US Trade and Financial Sanctions on Iran”, World Economy, 28(3), 407-434.
  • Turan, Y. (2013), İsrail 2013, Ortadoğu Yıllığı, 115-128.
  • UNARM (2018), Background, What is Military Expenditure?, http://www.unarm.org/Milex/ Background.aspx, (Erişim Tarihi: 12.08.2018).
  • Wang, T. P., Shyu, S. H. P. ve Chou, H. C. (2012), “The Impact of Defense Expenditure on Economic Productivity in OECD Countries”, Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2104-2114.
  • Wijeweera, A. ve Webb, M. J. (2011), “Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 22(5), 545-554.
  • World Bank (2017), Data Bank, World Development Indicators. Yıldırım, J., Sezgin, S. ve Öcal, N. (2005), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, 16(4), 283-295.
There are 45 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Barış Yıldız This is me

Gizem Akbulut Yıldız This is me

Publication Date March 1, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Issue: 112

Cite

APA Yıldız, B., & Akbulut Yıldız, G. (2019). Ortadoğu Ülkelerinde Askeri Harcamalar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Bootstrap Panel Granger Nedensellik Analizi. Sayıştay Dergisi(112), 53-74.