Research Article
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KAMU HARCAMALARININ İŞSİZLİK ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİNDE DİNAMİK BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Year 2024, Issue: 133, 297 - 322, 23.08.2024

Nadide Gülbay Yiğiteli

https://doi.org/10.52836/sayistay.1503157

Abstract

İşsizlik, ekonomik, sosyal ve psikolojik sonuçlarına bağlı olarak araştırmacılar ve politika yapıcılar açısından oldukça dinamik ve güncelliğini yitirmeyen bir konudur. İşsizliğe çözüm sunma arayışında olan politika setleri içerisinde devletin ekonomide aktif rol üstlenmesi yer almakta, bu ise kamu harcamalarındaki artışı beraberinde getirmektedir. Çalışmada, kamu harcamalarının işsizlik oranı üzerindeki etkisi, 1990-2022 dönemi kapsamında ve OECD ülkelerinin 5’er yıllık ortalamaları içeren panel verileriyle araştırılmaktadır. Kamu harcamaları, genel devlet nihai tüketim harcamalarının GSYH içindeki payı ile temsil edilmekte olup metodoloji olarak iki aşamalı sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi (2SGMM) kullanılmaktadır. Bu kapsamda bulgular, kamu harcamalarında %1’lik bir artışın, işsizlik oranında, alternatif modellere göre %0,38 ila %0,56 arasında değişen oranlarda bir artışa neden olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmanın bir diğer bulgusuna göre, işsizlik oranının geçmiş değerleri, bugünkü ve gelecekteki değerlerini etkilemekte olup anlamlı bir kalıcılık sergilemektedir. Ayrıca bulgular, reel kişi başı gelir ve dışa açıklıktaki artışların azalan işsizlik oranlarıyla ilişkili olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

İşsizlik Kamu Harcamaları İşgücü Politikaları

References

  • Abel, A. B., Bernanke, B. S. ve Croushore, D. (2013). Macroeconomics (9th ed.). Pearson Education, Inc.
  • Abrams, B. A. (1999). The Effect of Government Size on the Unemployment Rate. Public Choice, 99, 395-401.
  • Aiyar, S. ve Ebeke, C. (2020). Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income and Economic Growth. World Development, 136, 105-115.
  • Arellano, M. ve Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297.
  • Arellano, M. ve Bover, O. (1995). Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29–51.
  • Aslan, A. ve Kula, F. (2010). The Relationship Government Size-Unemployment: The Test of Abrams Curve for Turkish Economy. Maliye Dergisi, 159, 155-166.
  • Asongu, S. A. ve Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). Foreign Direct Investment Information Technology and Economic Growth Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. Telecommunications Policy, 44(1), 101838.
  • Battaglini, M. ve Coate, S. (2016). A Political Economy Theory of Fiscal Policy and Unemployment. Journal of the European Economic Association, 14(2), 303–337.
  • Berg, A. ve Krueger, A. (2003). Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey. IMF Working Paper, No. 03/30.
  • Blanchard, O. (2000). What do We Know About Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell Did Not?. De Economist, 148(5), 571-601.
  • Blundell, R. ve Bond, S. (1998). Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models. Journal of Econometrics 87, 115–143.
  • Bond, S. (2002). Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Guide to Micro Data Methods and Practice. Working Paper CWP09/02, Cemmap, Institute for Fiscal Studies. http://cemmap.ifs.org.uk/wps/cwp0209.pdf.
  • Bove, V. ve Elia, L. (2017). Migration, Diversity, and Economic Growth. World Development, 89, 227-239.
  • Christopoulos, D.K. ve Tsionas, E.G. (2002). Unemployment and Government Size: Is there any Credible Causality?. Applied Economic Letters, 9(12), 797–800.
  • Christopoulos, D.K., Loizides, J. ve Tsionas, E.G. (2005). The Abrams Curve of Government Size and Unemployment: Evidence from Panel Data. Applied Economics, 37(10), 1193-1199.
  • Coe, D.T. ve Helpman, E. (1995). International R&D Spillovers. European Economic Review, 39(5), 859–887.
  • Ertekin, Ş. (2020). Türkiye’de Kamu Kesimindeki Büyümenin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: 1980 Sonrası Dönem Analizi. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 35(1), 141-154.
  • Esping-Andersen, G. (1999). Social Risk and Welfare States. In G. Esping-Andersen (Ed.), Social Foundations of Postindustrial Economies, 32-46, Oxford University Press.
  • Feldmann, H. (2006). Government Size and Unemployment: Evidence from Industrial Countries. Public Choice, 127(3/4), 451-467.
  • Feldmann, H. (2010). Government Size and Unemployment in Developing Countries. Applied Economic Letters, 17(3), 289–292.
  • Friedman, M. (1956). The Quantity Theory of Money: A Restatement. In Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, ed. M. Friedman, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Holden, S. ve Sparrman, V. (2018). Do Government Purchases Affect Unemployment?. Scand. J. of Economics, 120, 124-158.
  • Iamsiraroj, S. (2016). The Foreign Direct Investment–Economic Growth Nexus. International Review of Economics & Finance, 42, 116-133.
  • International Labour Organization (2024). World Employment and Social Outlook. https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/
  • International Labour Organization (2023). Labour Force Statistics Database. https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/
  • Islam, N. (1995). Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (4), 1127–1170.
  • Iversen, T. ve Soskice, D. (2006). New Macroeconomics and Political Science. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci., 9, 425-453.
  • Kanca, O. C. ve Bayrak, M. (2014). Kamu Kesiminin Ekonomik Büyüklüğüne Türkiye ve OECD Ülkeleri Açısından Bir Bakış. Sayıştay Dergisi, 95, 29-48.
  • Katz, L. (1986). Efficiency Wage Theories: A Partial Evaluation. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1, Cambridge: MIT Press, 235-75.
  • Kocaman, M. ve Biçerli, M.K. (2021). The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Unemployment: The Turkish Case. Maliye Dergisi 181, 19-44.
  • Kolberg, J. E. ve Esping-Andersen, G. (1992). Welfare States and Employment Regimes. In J.E. Kolberg (Ed.), The Study of Welfare State Regimes, 1st Edition ed., 3-35, Routledge.
  • Krueger, A. (1990). Asian trade and growth lessons. American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, No. 80, pp. 108-112.
  • Lindbeck, A. ve Snower, D. (1986). Wage Setting, Unemployment, and Insider-Outsider Relations. Amer. Econ. Rev., 76(2), 235-39.
  • Mahdavi, S. ve Alanis, E. (2013). Public Expenditures and the Unemployment Rate in the American States: Panel Evidence. Applied Economics, 45(20), 2926-2937.
  • Mankiw, N.G. (1989). Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(3), 79-90.
  • McConnell, C. R., Brue, S.L. ve Macpherson, D.A. (2021). Contemporary Labor Economics (Twelfth), McGraw-Hill Education.
  • Nepram, D., Singh, S.P. ve Jaman, S. (2021). The Effect of Government Expenditure on Unemployment in India: A State Level Analysis. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(3), 763-769.
  • Ömür, Ö. M. (2022). Vergi Takozu ve İşsizlik İlişkisi: OECD Ülkelerinde Covıd-19 Sonrası Dönemde Yaşanan Değişimin Analizi. Sayıştay Dergisi, 33(127), 665-691.
  • Özer, M. O. (2020). Kamu Harcamaları ve İşsizlik Oranı Arasındaki İlişki: Abrams Eğrisinin Türkiye İçin Sınanması. KTÜ SBE Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(20), 307-322.
  • Pires, J. O. ve Garcia, F. (2012). Productivity of Nations: A Stochastic Frontier Approach to Tfp Decomposition. Economics Research International, 2012(1), 1-19.
  • Roodman, D. (2009). How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata. Stata Journal, 9(1), 86-136.
  • Semykina, A. ve Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Estimating Panel Data Models in The Presence of Endogeneity and Selection. Journal of Econometrics, 157(2), 375-380.
  • Stone, S. ve Shepherd, B. (2011). Dynamic Gains from Trade: The Role of Intermediate Inputs and Equipment Imports. OECD Trade Policy Working Papers, No. 110.
  • Taylor, J. (1980). Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts. J. Polit. Econ., 88(1), 1-24.
  • Wang, S. ve Abrams, B.A. (2011). The Effect of Government Size on The Steady-State Unemployment Rate: A Dynamic Perspective. Department of Economics, Alfred Lerner College of Business & Economics, Working Paper Series No.2011-12.
  • Windmeijer, F. (2005). A Finite Sample Correction for the Variance of Linear Efficient Two-Step GMM Estimators. Journal of Econometrics 126, 25-51.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Fifth Edition. South- Western: Cengage Learning.
  • World Bank (2023). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.
  • Yalta, A.T. ve Yalta, A.Y. (2022). Modern Makroekonomiye Giriş, Ankara: Adres Yayınları, 4. Baskı.
  • Yiğiteli, N. (2022). Türkiye’de Reel Ücretlerin ve Kamu Harcamalarının İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: Bölgesel Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Atasever, G. (Ed.), İşsizlik, Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Yoksulluk Içinde (151-173). Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Yongjin, S. (2011). Government Size, Economic Growth and Unemployment: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economy Countries: A Time Series Analysis, 1996-2006. International Review of Public Administration, 16(2), 95-116.
  • Yürük, B. ve Acaroğlu, H. (2021). Türkiye’ de Kamu Harcamaları ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişkinin Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, 63, 93-110.

Year 2024, Issue: 133, 297 - 322, 23.08.2024

Nadide Gülbay Yiğiteli

https://doi.org/10.52836/sayistay.1503157

Abstract

References

  • Abel, A. B., Bernanke, B. S. ve Croushore, D. (2013). Macroeconomics (9th ed.). Pearson Education, Inc.
  • Abrams, B. A. (1999). The Effect of Government Size on the Unemployment Rate. Public Choice, 99, 395-401.
  • Aiyar, S. ve Ebeke, C. (2020). Inequality of Opportunity, Inequality of Income and Economic Growth. World Development, 136, 105-115.
  • Arellano, M. ve Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297.
  • Arellano, M. ve Bover, O. (1995). Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models. Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29–51.
  • Aslan, A. ve Kula, F. (2010). The Relationship Government Size-Unemployment: The Test of Abrams Curve for Turkish Economy. Maliye Dergisi, 159, 155-166.
  • Asongu, S. A. ve Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). Foreign Direct Investment Information Technology and Economic Growth Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. Telecommunications Policy, 44(1), 101838.
  • Battaglini, M. ve Coate, S. (2016). A Political Economy Theory of Fiscal Policy and Unemployment. Journal of the European Economic Association, 14(2), 303–337.
  • Berg, A. ve Krueger, A. (2003). Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey. IMF Working Paper, No. 03/30.
  • Blanchard, O. (2000). What do We Know About Macroeconomics that Fisher and Wicksell Did Not?. De Economist, 148(5), 571-601.
  • Blundell, R. ve Bond, S. (1998). Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models. Journal of Econometrics 87, 115–143.
  • Bond, S. (2002). Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Guide to Micro Data Methods and Practice. Working Paper CWP09/02, Cemmap, Institute for Fiscal Studies. http://cemmap.ifs.org.uk/wps/cwp0209.pdf.
  • Bove, V. ve Elia, L. (2017). Migration, Diversity, and Economic Growth. World Development, 89, 227-239.
  • Christopoulos, D.K. ve Tsionas, E.G. (2002). Unemployment and Government Size: Is there any Credible Causality?. Applied Economic Letters, 9(12), 797–800.
  • Christopoulos, D.K., Loizides, J. ve Tsionas, E.G. (2005). The Abrams Curve of Government Size and Unemployment: Evidence from Panel Data. Applied Economics, 37(10), 1193-1199.
  • Coe, D.T. ve Helpman, E. (1995). International R&D Spillovers. European Economic Review, 39(5), 859–887.
  • Ertekin, Ş. (2020). Türkiye’de Kamu Kesimindeki Büyümenin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: 1980 Sonrası Dönem Analizi. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 35(1), 141-154.
  • Esping-Andersen, G. (1999). Social Risk and Welfare States. In G. Esping-Andersen (Ed.), Social Foundations of Postindustrial Economies, 32-46, Oxford University Press.
  • Feldmann, H. (2006). Government Size and Unemployment: Evidence from Industrial Countries. Public Choice, 127(3/4), 451-467.
  • Feldmann, H. (2010). Government Size and Unemployment in Developing Countries. Applied Economic Letters, 17(3), 289–292.
  • Friedman, M. (1956). The Quantity Theory of Money: A Restatement. In Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, ed. M. Friedman, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Holden, S. ve Sparrman, V. (2018). Do Government Purchases Affect Unemployment?. Scand. J. of Economics, 120, 124-158.
  • Iamsiraroj, S. (2016). The Foreign Direct Investment–Economic Growth Nexus. International Review of Economics & Finance, 42, 116-133.
  • International Labour Organization (2024). World Employment and Social Outlook. https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/
  • International Labour Organization (2023). Labour Force Statistics Database. https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/
  • Islam, N. (1995). Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (4), 1127–1170.
  • Iversen, T. ve Soskice, D. (2006). New Macroeconomics and Political Science. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci., 9, 425-453.
  • Kanca, O. C. ve Bayrak, M. (2014). Kamu Kesiminin Ekonomik Büyüklüğüne Türkiye ve OECD Ülkeleri Açısından Bir Bakış. Sayıştay Dergisi, 95, 29-48.
  • Katz, L. (1986). Efficiency Wage Theories: A Partial Evaluation. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1, Cambridge: MIT Press, 235-75.
  • Kocaman, M. ve Biçerli, M.K. (2021). The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Unemployment: The Turkish Case. Maliye Dergisi 181, 19-44.
  • Kolberg, J. E. ve Esping-Andersen, G. (1992). Welfare States and Employment Regimes. In J.E. Kolberg (Ed.), The Study of Welfare State Regimes, 1st Edition ed., 3-35, Routledge.
  • Krueger, A. (1990). Asian trade and growth lessons. American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, No. 80, pp. 108-112.
  • Lindbeck, A. ve Snower, D. (1986). Wage Setting, Unemployment, and Insider-Outsider Relations. Amer. Econ. Rev., 76(2), 235-39.
  • Mahdavi, S. ve Alanis, E. (2013). Public Expenditures and the Unemployment Rate in the American States: Panel Evidence. Applied Economics, 45(20), 2926-2937.
  • Mankiw, N.G. (1989). Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(3), 79-90.
  • McConnell, C. R., Brue, S.L. ve Macpherson, D.A. (2021). Contemporary Labor Economics (Twelfth), McGraw-Hill Education.
  • Nepram, D., Singh, S.P. ve Jaman, S. (2021). The Effect of Government Expenditure on Unemployment in India: A State Level Analysis. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(3), 763-769.
  • Ömür, Ö. M. (2022). Vergi Takozu ve İşsizlik İlişkisi: OECD Ülkelerinde Covıd-19 Sonrası Dönemde Yaşanan Değişimin Analizi. Sayıştay Dergisi, 33(127), 665-691.
  • Özer, M. O. (2020). Kamu Harcamaları ve İşsizlik Oranı Arasındaki İlişki: Abrams Eğrisinin Türkiye İçin Sınanması. KTÜ SBE Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(20), 307-322.
  • Pires, J. O. ve Garcia, F. (2012). Productivity of Nations: A Stochastic Frontier Approach to Tfp Decomposition. Economics Research International, 2012(1), 1-19.
  • Roodman, D. (2009). How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata. Stata Journal, 9(1), 86-136.
  • Semykina, A. ve Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Estimating Panel Data Models in The Presence of Endogeneity and Selection. Journal of Econometrics, 157(2), 375-380.
  • Stone, S. ve Shepherd, B. (2011). Dynamic Gains from Trade: The Role of Intermediate Inputs and Equipment Imports. OECD Trade Policy Working Papers, No. 110.
  • Taylor, J. (1980). Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts. J. Polit. Econ., 88(1), 1-24.
  • Wang, S. ve Abrams, B.A. (2011). The Effect of Government Size on The Steady-State Unemployment Rate: A Dynamic Perspective. Department of Economics, Alfred Lerner College of Business & Economics, Working Paper Series No.2011-12.
  • Windmeijer, F. (2005). A Finite Sample Correction for the Variance of Linear Efficient Two-Step GMM Estimators. Journal of Econometrics 126, 25-51.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Fifth Edition. South- Western: Cengage Learning.
  • World Bank (2023). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.
  • Yalta, A.T. ve Yalta, A.Y. (2022). Modern Makroekonomiye Giriş, Ankara: Adres Yayınları, 4. Baskı.
  • Yiğiteli, N. (2022). Türkiye’de Reel Ücretlerin ve Kamu Harcamalarının İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: Bölgesel Bir Panel Veri Analizi. Atasever, G. (Ed.), İşsizlik, Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Yoksulluk Içinde (151-173). Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Yongjin, S. (2011). Government Size, Economic Growth and Unemployment: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economy Countries: A Time Series Analysis, 1996-2006. International Review of Public Administration, 16(2), 95-116.
  • Yürük, B. ve Acaroğlu, H. (2021). Türkiye’ de Kamu Harcamaları ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişkinin Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, 63, 93-110.
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Policy and Administration (Other)
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Nadide Gülbay Yiğiteli 0000-0002-0632-7253

Publication Date August 23, 2024
Submission Date June 21, 2024
Acceptance Date August 1, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Issue: 133

Cite

APA Gülbay Yiğiteli, N. (2024). KAMU HARCAMALARININ İŞSİZLİK ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİNDE DİNAMİK BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Sayıştay Dergisi(133), 297-322. https://doi.org/10.52836/sayistay.1503157
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