THE IMPACT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON BUDGET DEFICIT: INSIGHTS FROM OECD COUNTRIES

Year 2024, Issue: 135, 665 - 690, 07.02.2025

Yahya Algül

https://doi.org/10.52836/sayistay.1597228

Abstract

Renewable energy has emerged as a significant alternative to fossil fuels, particularly given the environmental damage associated with the latter. A key concern is that renewable energy consumption may worsen budget deficits due to its higher costs and substantial government support. While theory suggests this link, this analysis is one of the first comprehensive empirical investigations on the topic. Therefore, this study investigates the assocation between renewable energy and budget deficits in 26 OECD countries using 1995–2022 data, employing three cointegration tests and Pedroni's (2001) DOLSMG technique. The findings indicate a significant cointegration relationship between renewable energy consumption and budget deficits across the three different tests. Furthermore, according to the DOLSMG estimator, an increase of 1% in the utilization of renewable energy correlates with an approximate worsening of 0.53% in budget balances. Additionally, based on these results, recommendations for the redesign of renewable energy policies are presented.

Keywords

Budget Deficit, Fiscal Deficit, Renewable Energy, Panel Cointegration, OECD

YENİLENEBİLİR ENERJİ TÜKETİMİNİN BÜTÇE AÇIĞI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: OECD ÜLKELERİNDEN BULGULAR

Abstract

Yenilenebilir enerji, fosil yakıtların çevresel zararları göz önüne alındığında günümüzde önemli bir alternatif olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Ancak, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının fosil yakıtlara kıyasla daha yüksek maliyetleri sebebiyle önemli ölçüde hükümet desteği gerektirmesiyle bütçe açıklarını kötüleştirme potansiyeli yaygın bir endişe kaynağıdır. Literatürde bu ilişki teorik düzlemde yaygınca tartışılsa da, yeterli ampirik bulguyla desteklenmemektedir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışma konuyla ilgili ilk kapsamlı ampirik araştırmalardan biridir. Çalışmada, 1995-2022 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak 26 OECD ülkesinde yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ile bütçe açıkları arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir. Çalışmada üç farklı eşbütünleşme testi ve Pedroni'nin (2001) önerdiği DOLSMG tekniği uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ile bütçe açıkları arasında üç farklı testin tümüne göre anlamlı bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, DOLSMG tahmincisine göre, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimindeki %1’lik bir artış, bütçe dengelerinde yaklaşık %0,53’lük bir kötüleşme ile ilişkilendirilmektedir. Sonuç olarak elde edilen bulgulara binaen enerji politikalarının yeniden tasarlanmasına yönelik öneriler sunulmuştur.

Keywords

Bütçe Açığı, Mali Açık, Yenilenebilir Enerji, Panel Eşbütünleşme, OECD

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