Döviz Kuru Volatilitesinin Katılım Bankalarının Kredileri Üzerine Etkisi

Year 2021, Volume: 24 Issue: 2, 540 - 547, 30.11.2021

Mercan Hatipoğlu

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.960729

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, döviz kuru oynaklığının Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren Katılım bankalarının kredi büyümesi üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, GARCH modeli kullanılarak ilk önce dolar kurunun volatilitesi (oynaklık serisi) elde edilmiş daha sonra ise, basit doğrusal regresyon modeli çerçevesinde, kredi büyüme oranları ile dolar kuru volatilitesi arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda döviz kuru volatilitesinin, katılım bankalarının kredi büyümesini azalttığı bulunmuştur. Ekonomi politikaları açısından değerlendirildiğinde, Katılım bankalarının ülkenin reel ekonomisine daha fazla katkı verebilmesi için, döviz kuru oynaklığının azalması gerekmektedir. Bu kapsamda, yerel para biriminden iç tasarrufları teşvik edilmesi, kur beklentilerin düşürülmesi ve merkez bankası rezervlerinin güçlendirilmesi gibi önlemler alınabilir.

Keywords

Döviz Kuru Volatilitesi, Katılım Bankaları, Türkiye

The Impact Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Participant Banks Credit

Abstract

The aim of the study is to invastigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on loan growth of Participation banks in Turkey. For this purpose, using the GARCH model, first the volatility of the dollar was obtained and then the relationship between loan growth rates and dollar rate volatility was analyzed within the framework of the simple linear regression model. As a result of the study, it was found that exchange rate volatility decreased the loan growth of Participation banks. As an economic policy implication, in order for Participation banks to contribute more to the real economy, the exchange rate volatility should decrease. In this context, measures such as encouraging domestic savings in local currency, lowering exchange rate expectations and strengthening central bank reserves can be taken.

Keywords

Exchange Rate Volatility, Participation Banks, Turkey

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