Ulusal Brüt Kamu Borcunun COVID-19 Ölüm Oranları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Avrupa Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Çalışma

Year 2024, Volume: 27 Issue: 2, 787 - 798, 29.11.2024

Bilal Kargı

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.1557087

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Avrupa ülkelerinde yüksek ulusal borç, sağlık harcamaları ve COVID-19 ölüm oranları arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Hipotez, aşırı kamu borcunun sağlık ve sosyoekonomik sistemleri zayıflatarak pandemi gibi krizlere karşı kırılganlığı artırmasıdır. Bulgular bu teoriyi desteklemektedir. Daha düşük COVID-19 ölüm oranlarına sahip ülkeler, daha yüksek ölüm oranlarına sahip olanlara kıyasla daha düşük borç seviyeleri ve daha yüksek kişi başına sağlık harcamaları sergilemiştir. Artan borç yüklerine rağmen, daha yüksek ölüm oranlarına sahip ülkeler, muhtemelen Avrupa Birliği tarafından uygulanan kemer sıkma önlemleri nedeniyle sağlık harcamalarını artırmakta zorlanmıştır. Bu çalışma 27 AB üye ülkesinden verileri analiz ettiğini, 2009 ve 2019'dan itibaren sağlık ve ekonomik göstergeleri inceleyerek COVID-19 ölüm oranları üzerindeki etkilerini değerlendirdiğini göstermektedir. Betimleyici istatistikler, t testi ve iki aşamalı en küçük kareler (2SLS) regresyon modeli kullanılarak, çalışma sağlık harcamaları ve kamu borcundaki pandemi öncesi eğilimleri karşılaştırarak yüksek devlet borcunun sağlık sistemlerinin kriz yanıt kapasitesi üzerindeki etkisini değerlendirmeyi amaçlamaktadır.Araştırma, borç seviyeleri hesaba katıldığında bile artan sağlık harcamaları ile azalan COVID-19 ölüm oranları arasında güçlü bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, yüksek kamu borcunun sağlık sistemleri ve kamu sağlığı acil durumlarına etkili bir şekilde yanıt verme yetenekleri üzerindeki zararlı etkisini vurgulamaktadır. Çalışma, daha dayanıklı sağlık altyapıları oluşturmak için kamu borcunun ele alınması gerektiğinin altını çizmektedir.

Keywords

COVID-19, Devlet borcu, Sağlık harcamaları, Vaka ölüm oranı, Avrupa Birliği

Impact of National Gross Public Debt on COVID-19 Fatality Rates: A Study of European Countries

Abstract

This study investigates the correlation between high national debt, healthcare spending, and COVID-19 mortality rates across European countries. The hypothesis is that excessive public debt undermines healthcare and socioeconomic systems, increasing vulnerability to crises like the pandemic. Findings support this theory. Countries with lower COVID-19 death rates exhibited lower debt levels and higher per capita healthcare spending compared to those with higher mortality rates. Despite increased debt burdens, countries with higher fatality rates struggled to boost healthcare expenditures, potentially due to austerity measures imposed by the European Union. The Methods section indicates that this study analyzed data from 27 EU member states, examining healthcare and economic indicators from 2009 and 2019 to evaluate their influence on COVID-19 mortality rates. Using descriptive statistics, a t-test, and a two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression model, the study compared pre-pandemic trends in healthcare spending and public debt, aiming to assess the impact of high government debt on healthcare systems' crisis response capacity. The research demonstrates a strong association between increased health spending and reduced COVID-19 mortality rates, even when accounting for debt levels. These results highlight the detrimental impact of high public debt on healthcare systems and their ability to respond effectively to public health emergencies. The study underscores the need to address public debt to build more resilient healthcare infrastructures.

Keywords

COVID-19, Government debt, Healthcare spending, Case fatality rate, European Union

Thanks

Acknowledgement: I would like to thank Dr. Mario Coccia, who read the draft and pre-submission versions of the study, provided valuable criticism, and contributed to the correction of the article.

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