Solar radiation forecasting by using deep neural networks in Eski̇şehi̇r

Year 2021, Volume: 39 Issue: 2, 159 - 169, 02.06.2021

Mohammed Qadem Ümmühan Başaran Filik

Abstract

According to the World Economic Outlook (WEO), the global demand for energy is presumably going to be increased due to growing the world’s population up during the upcoming two decades. As a result of that, apprehensions about environmental effects, which appear as a result of greenhouse gases are grown and cleaner energy technologies are developed. This clearly shows that extended growth of the worldwide market share of clean energy. Solar energy is considered as one of the fundamental types of renewable energy. For this reason, the need for a predictive model that effectively observes solar energy conversion with high performance becomes urgent. In this paper, classic empirical, artificial neural network (ANN), deep neural network (DNN), and time series models are applied, and their results are compared to each other to find the most accurate model for daily global solar radiation (DGSR) estimation. In addition, four regression models have been developed and applied for DGSR estimation. The obtained results are evaluated and compared by the root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (rRMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean bias error (MBE), t-statistic, and coefficient of determination (R2). Finally, simulation results provided that the best result is found by the DNN model.

Keywords

Daily global solar radiation forecasting, artificial neural network, deep neural network, renewable energy

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