Politik Risklerin Türkiye’nin Ticareti Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Değerlendirilmesi: 1923-1950

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Cumhuriyet döneminin ilk yıllarında Türkiye’nin ihracat ve ithalatının politik belirleyicilerini incelemektir. Genişletilmiş çekim modeli kullanılarak, politik risk ile ilişkili siyasi faktörlerin Türkiye’nin ticaretini nasıl etkilediği analiz edilmiştir. Bunun için Türkiye’nin 14 ticaret ortağının 1923’ten 1950’ye kadar olan yıllık ticaret verileri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’nin ticaret ortaklarıyla ikili ilişkilerindeki gerilimlerin aksine, jeopolitik risklerin Türkiye’nin ihracatı ve ithalatı üzerinde önemli ölçüde olumsuz bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu durum, küresel olaylardan kaynaklanan artan politik riskin bu dönemde Türkiye’nin ticareti üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, Türkiye’nin bu dönemde güvenlik ve ekonomik kalkınmaya odaklanan politikalar izleyerek gerginliklerden kaçınmasıyla ikili ilişkilerdeki gerginliklerin dış ticaret üzerinde etkili olmadığı söylenebilir.

Keywords

• Çatışma
• Uluslararası Ticaret
• Jeopolitik Risk
• Jeopolitik Risk İndeksi
• Çekim Modeli

Assessing the Effects of Political Risks on Türkiye’s Trade between 1923 and 1950

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the political determinants of Türkiye’s exports and imports during the early years of the Republican era. Using an augmented gravity model, we analyse how political risk factors influenced Türkiye’s trade. To achieve this, we utilise annual trade data for 14 of Türkiye’s trading partners from 1923 to 1950. The findings reveal that, unlike tensions in Türkiye's bilateral relations with its trading partners, the geopolitical risks have a significantly negative impact on Türkiye's exports and imports. This suggests that heightened political risk stemming from global events had a detrimental effect on Türkiye’s trade during this period, whereas the tensions in its bilateral relations did not affect foreign trade, thanks to the country's focus on security and economic development.

Keywords

• Conflict
• International Trade
• Geopolitical Risk
• GPR Index
• Gravity Equation

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