Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan

2219-6641

Science Publishing House of ANAS

Seismology and Seismic Exploration Geophysics (Other)

Sismoloji ve Sismik Arama Jeofizik (Diğer)

INTERCONNECTION OF GEODYNAMIC PROCESSES IN THE CAUCASUS AND ADJACENT REGIONS (TURKEY, IRAN)

Kazimov

Ilyas

Republican Seismic Survey Center of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences Kazimova

Sabina

Republican Seismic Survey Center of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences

05 30 2025

27 1 25 37 01 29 2025 04 08 2025

2014

Seismoprognosis Observations in the Territory of Azerbaijan

This article is dedicated to the study of the tectonic evolution of the Caucasus within the context of the central segment of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt, including the adjacent territories of Turkey and Iran. Based on paleotectonic and geophysical data, including the research of A.A.Belov (1986), R.Kolman (1974), N.Kelder (1975), N.Falcon (1977), V.E.Khain (1990), F.Ahmedbeyli (2010), Cowgil (2016), Forte (2015), T.Kengerli (2018) and others, the stages of regional formation from the Mesozoic to the present are analyzed. It is established that the Caucasus, Turkey, and Iran initially constituted a single tectonic block associated with Gondwana, the collapse of which during the Jurassic period and the subsequent formation of the Red Sea Rift led to their tectonic differentiation. Special attention is given to the role of Arabian Plate movement, the influence of compression, and autonomous geodynamic processes in the development of structures such as the Greater and Lesser Caucasus, Pontides, Taurides, Elburz, and Zagros, as well as differences in geological structure, volcanic activity, and rock distribution. An analysis of GPS data (2018–2024) and Lode-Nadai coefficient maps (2019–2024) reveals a shift in dominant stresses in the region—from extension in 2019–2022 to compression in 2023–2024 linked to tectonic activity and earthquakes. Linear seismic zones reflecting the region’s high seismicity are identified, including events such as the Shamakhi (1902), Spitak (1988), and Racha (1991) earthquakes. In conclusion, it is emphasized that the tectonic evolution of the region is driven by both horizontal and vertical movements, and the Caucasus, Turkey, and Iran remain interconnected without breaking into separate plates. This study is significant for assessing seismic hazards and predicting geodynamic processes.

Caucasus Turkey Iran Alpine-Himalayan belt tectonics geodynamics Gondwana Red Sea Rift seismicity GPS Lode-Nadai coefficient.

1. Aktug, B., Nocquet, J.M., Cingöz, A., Parsons, B., Erkan, Y., England, P., Lenk, O., Gürdal, M.A., Kilicoglu, A., Akdeniz, H., Tekgül, A., 2009. Deformation of western Turkey from a combination of permanent and campaign GPS data: limits to block-like behavior. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 114, B10404. 10.

2. Aktug, B., Parmaksız, E., Kurt, M., Lenk, O., Kılıçog˘lu, A., Gürdal, M.A., Özdemir, S., 2013b. Deformation of Central Anatolia: GPS implications. J. Geodyn. 67, 78–96.

3. Cowgill, E., Forte, A.M., Niemi, N., Avdeev, B., Tye, A., Trexler, C., Javakhishvili, Z., Elashvili, M., Godoladze, T., 2016. Relict basin closure and crustal shortening budgets during continental collision: An example from Caucasus sediment provenance. Tectonics 35, 2918–2947. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016TC004295

4. Eppelbaum, L.V. and Katz, Yu.I., 2017. A New Regard on the Tectonic Map of the Arabian-African Region Inferred from the Satellite Gravity Analysis. Acta Geophysica, 65, 607-626. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-017-0057-2

5. Forte, A.M., Sumner, D.Y., Cowgill, E., Stoica, M., Murtuzayev, I., Kangarli, T., Elashvili, M., Godoladze, T., Javakhishvili, Z., 2015. Late Miocene to Pliocene stratigraphy of the Kura Basin, a subbasin of the South Caspian Basin: implications for the diachroneity of stage boundaries. Basin Res. 27, 247–271. https://doi.org/10.1111/bre.12069

6. Ismail-Zadeh T., Adamia S., Chabukiani A., Chelidze T., Cloetingh S., Floyd M., Gorshkov A., Gvishiani A., Ismail-Zadeh A., Kaban M.K., Kadirov F., Karapetyan J., Kangarli T., Kiria J., Koulakov I., Mosar J., Mumladze T., Müller B., Sadradze N., Safarov R., Schilling F., Soloviev A. Geodynamics, seismicity, and seismic hazards of the Caucasus // Earth-Science Reviews. 2020. V. 207. Article 103222. doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103222.

7. Kangarli, T.N., Kadirov, F.A., Etirmishli, G.D., Aliev, F.A., Kazimova, S.E., Aliev, A.M., Safarov, R.T., Vakhabov, U.G., 2018. Geodynamics, active faults and earthquake source mechanisms in the zone of pseudosubduction interaction of continental microplates in the South and North Caucasus (southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, Azerbaijan). Geodyn. Tectonophys. 9, 1099–1126. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2018-94-0385

8. Kazimov I.E. and Kazimova A. F. Modern seismogeodynamics of turkey, northern Iran and Caucasus region, seismoprognosis observations in the territory of Azerbaijan, V. 25, №1, 2024, pp. 25-36

9. Mahmoud, Y., Masson, F., Meghraoui, M., Cakir, Z., Alchalbi, A., Yavasoglu, H., Yonlu, O., Daoud, M., Ergintav, S., Inan, S., 2013. Kinematic study at the junction of the East Anatolian fault and the Dead Sea fault from GPS measurements. J. Geodyn. 67, 30–39

10. Mosar, J., Kangarli, T., Bochud, M., Glasmacher, U.A., Rast, A., Brunet, M.-F., Sosson, M., 2010. Cenozoic-Recent tectonics and uplift in the Greater Caucasus: a perspective from Azerbaijan. Geol. Soc. Lond. Spec. Publ. 340, 261–280. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP340.12

11. Starostenko V.I., Buryanov V., Makarenko I., Rusakov O., Stephenson R., Nikishin A., Georgiev G., Gerasimov M., Dimitru R., Legostaeva O., Pchelarov V., Sava C. Topography of the crust-mantle boundary beneath the Black Sea Basin // Tectonophysics. 2004. Vol. 381. P. 211–233.

12. Yetirmishli G.J., Kazimov I.E., Kazimova A. F. Contemporary geodynamics of the eastern mediterranean, seismoprognosis observations in the territory of Azerbaijan, V. 20, №2, 2021, pp. 3-10

13. Yetirmishli G.J., Nabelek L.J., Kazimova S.E., Kazimov I.E. Source mechanism of Turkish earthquakes occurred on 06.02.2023 with M=7.8, 7.6, Seismoprognosis observations in the territory of Azerbaijan, V. 23, №1, 2023, pp. 3-10

14. Isaacs B., Oliver J., Sykes L. Seismology and the new global tectonics. In: New global tectonics (plate tectonics). Moscow: Mir, 1974, pp. 133-179 (original in Russian)

15. Afanasenkov A.P., Nikishin A.M., Obukhov A.N. Geological structure and hydrocarbon potential of the East Black Sea region. M.: Scientific world, 2007, p.172 (original in Russian)

16. Akhmedbeyli F.S., Isaeva M.I., Kadirov F.A., Korobanov V.V. Geodynamics of the neotectonic stage of the Caucasian segment of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. Baku, Nafta-Press, 2010, p. 214 (original in Russian)

17. Belaevsky N.A., Mikhailov A.E. Structure and origin of the Black Sea basin. In the book: Tectonics of the Mediterranean Belt. Moscow: Nauka, 1980, pp. 10-21 (original in Russian)

18. Belov A.A. Main pre-Mesozoic structural zones and history of development of the Mediterranean belt. In the book: Tectonics of the Mediterranean belt. Moscow: Nauka, 1986, pp. 55-67 (original in Russian)

19. Ilhan E. Eastern Türkiye. In: Mesozoic-Cenozoic folded belts. Volume 1 Alpine Himalayan folded regions. Moscow: Mir, 1977, pp. 234-247 (original in Russian)

20. Kelder N. Restless Earth. Moscow: Mir, 1975, p.212 (original in Russian)

21. Coleman R. Geological structure of the Caspian Sea floor. In: Geology of continental margins. Vol. 3 Moscow: Mir, 1979, pp. 91-100 (original in Russian)

22. Rustamov M.I. Paleotectonics and geodynamics of the Paleotethys of the Caspian Caucasian region. Proceedings of the Institute of Geology of the National Academy of Sciences, 2001, No. 29, pp. 136-147 (original in Russian)

23. Trifonov V. G., Sokolov S. Yu., Sokolov S. A., Hessami H. Mesozoic-Cenozoic structure of the Black Sea-Caucasus-Caspian region and its relationship with the structure of the upper mantle, Geotectonics, 2020, No. 3, pp. 55–81 (original in Russian)

24. Tugolesov D.A., Gorshkov A.S., Meissner L.B. et al. Tectonics of Mesozoic-Cenozoic deposits of the Black Sea Basin. Moscow: Nedra, 1985, p. 215 (original in Russian)

25. Falcon N. Southern Iran: Zagros Mountains. In the book: Mesozoic-Cenozoic fold belts. Volume 1. M.: Mir, 1977, p. 249-263 (original in Russian)

26. Khain V.E., Lobkovsky L.I. On the features of the formation of collisional orogens Geotectonics, 1990, No. 6, pp. 20-31 (original in Russian)

27. Shempelev A. G., Zaalishvili V. B., Chotchaev Kh. O., Shamanovskaya S. P., Rogozhin E. A. Tectonic fragmentation and geodynamic regime of Elbrus and Kazbek volcanoes (Central Caucasus, Russia): results of deep geophysical studies, Geotectonics, 2020, No. 5, pp. 55–69 (original in Russian)

28. Stecklin J. Ancient continental margin in Iran. In: Geology of continental margins. Moscow: Mir, 1979, vol. 3 (original in Russian)

29. Stecklin J. Northern Iran: Elborz Mountains. In the book: Mesozoic-Cenozoic fold belts. Volume 1, M.: Mir, 1977, p. 264-289 (original in Russian)