Forecasting the Amount of Beef Production in Turkey

Year 2019, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 101 - 107, 24.12.2019

Nevra Alhas Eroğlu Mehmet Bozoğlu , Bakiye Kılıç Topuz , Uğur Başer

Abstract

The amount of beef production of Turkey could not reach desired level in spite of the supports. As a result, the demand of beef meat has not been sufficiently fulfilled, consumer price has continuously increased and the amount of import has also risen so as to control the demand-supply and price balance in the market. Therefore, forecasting the amount of beef production is indispensable to evaluate the structural problems of the livestock sector. The objective of this study was to forecast the amount of beef production of Turkey from the period of 2019 to 2028. The data of this study was obtained from the databases of Food and Agriculture Organization and Turkish Statistical Institute. The time series of the amount of beef production for the period 1961-2018 was used for forecasting via Box-Jenkins Model and ARIMA (2, 2, 2) was determined as the most appropriate model. The results of the study revealed that the amount of beef production would regularly rise in the next ten-year period and would be 1019754 tons in 2019 and 1163534 tons in 2028. This research concluded that the government should provide necessary supports to lessen the production costs and enhance productivity in order to produce forecasted amounts without high level of imports.

Keywords

Beef production, Time Series Analysis, ARIMA, Box-Jenkins method, Turkey

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