Belucistan & Pakistan: Güçlü Çatışma Dinamikleri ve Zayıf Bir Barış Umudu mu?

Year 2026, Volume: 13 Issue: 1 , 179 - 203 , 18.02.2026

Gökhan Güneysu , Mehmet Emin Erendor

https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.1779269

https://izlik.org/JA34XB62CW

Abstract

Belucistan gibi başlı başına stratejik öneme sahip bir bölgede yaşayan Beluç halkı, düşük yaşam koşullarının kasıtlı olarak yaratıldığını ve siyasi ya da toplumsal taleplerinin bilinçli biçimde görmezden gelindiğini ileri sürmektedir. Beluçlar arasında, Pakistan’ın ekonomik hamlelerinin kurbanı olduklarına dair yaygın bir inanç vardır. Bölge güçlü bir aşiret kültürüne ev sahipliği yapmaktadır. Belirtilen nedenler de dahil olmak üzere çeşitli etkenler sonucunda bazı Beluç gruplarının zaman zaman şiddete başvurduğu görülmektedir. Ancak mücadeleyi yalnızca iç politikaya bağlamak doğru değildir; başka etkenler ve motivasyonlar da söz konusudur. Belucistan, mevcut küresel enerji rekabetinin sahnelendiği bir alan olarak da görülebilir. Bu bölge, Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti’nin son derece önemli gördüğü girişimlerle doğrudan bağlantılıdır. Bununla birlikte, birçok devlet bu tür girişimlerin başarısına karşı çıkacaktır. Bu durum, kökeni ne olursa olsun bölgesel huzursuzlukların, başka devletler tarafından kendi dış politika hedeflerini ilerletmek için bir araç olarak kullanılabileceği ihtimalini doğurmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Beluç ayaklanmalarının tarihsel bağlamını ve Çin-Pakistan Ekonomik Koridoru’nun bölge için gelecekteki sonuçlarını ele almayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada ayrıca çatışmanın itici unsurları incelenecek ve tüm bu zorluklara rağmen müzakere ve barış inşası yoluyla kalıcı bir barışın nasıl tesis edilebileceği tartışılacaktır.

Keywords

Pakistan , Belucistan , Çin , Kuşak ve Yol Girişimi , Çin-Pakistan Ekonomik Koridoru

Balochistan & Pakistan: Strong Conflict Drivers and a Frail Hope for Peace?

https://izlik.org/JA34XB62CW

Abstract

The Baloch people who inhabit Balochistan, a crucial area in and of itself, contend that their low living conditions are created by design and that their political or societal demands are intentionally being neglected. There is a pervasive belief among Baloch people that they are the victims of Pakistan's economic drive. The area is home to a very strong tribal culture. Some Baloch groups have been known to resort to violence as a result of many factors including the ones highlighted. But there are other factors and motivations for the fight than just internal politics. One could see Balochistan as a region where the current global energy conflict is being fought out. This region is directly tied to the initiatives that the People's Republic of China finds very important. Nonetheless, numerous states would oppose the success of such initiatives. This raises the possibility that regional unrest, regardless of its root causes, could be used by other states as a tool to further their own foreign policy goals. This study will try to include the historical context of the Baloch uprisings as well as the future implications of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor for the area. It aims to delineate the conflict drivers and how a lasting peace could be built despite them through negotiations and peace-building measures.

Keywords

Pakistan , Balochistan , China , Belt and Road Initiative , China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

References

• Alam, K. M., Xuemei, L., Baig, S., Muhammad, F., Sun, J., & Tariq, M. (2023). Impact of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor on the China-Europe and China-Middle East trading route selection. PloS one, 18(7), e0288328. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0288328
• Akhtar, A. S. (2022). The Struggle for Hegemony in Pakistan: Fear, Desire and Revolutionary Horizons. Pluto Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv2g591w8.
• Akhtar, A., Qumber, G., Hashmi A. S. (2018). Intra-Movement Dynamics of Ethnic Militancy in Balochistan: A Policy Perspective. ISSRA Papers, X (II), 131-144.
• Aslam, R. (2008). Rethinking “Wana”: A Game Theoretic Analysis of the Conflict in the Tribal Region of Pakistan. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 31(8), 665–683. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100802206525
• Bansal, A. (2006). Balochistan: Continuing Violence and Its Implications. Strategic Analysis, 30(1), 46–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/17540054.2006.12288818
• Bercovitch, J., & Jackson, R. (2001). Negotiation or Mediation?: An Exploration of Factors Affecting the Choice of Conflict Management in International Conflict. Negotiation Journal, 17(1), 59–77. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1571-9979.2001.tb00227.x
• Boz, H. (2011). Belucistan, Orta Asya’nın Kürdistan’ı mı?. 21. Yüzyıl, 36, 52-58.
• Breseeg, T.M. (2001). Baloch nationalism: its origin and development up to 1980. Doctoral Dissertation, School of Oriental & African Studies University of London.
• Çapın, H., & Konca, Ş. (2023). A Study on Modelling of Conflict and Agreement with Game Theory. Journal of Universal Mathematics, 6(1), 105-113. https://doi.org/10.33773/jum.1139872.
• Engel, A. P., & Korf, B. (2005). Negotiation and mediation techniques for natural resource management. Retrieved from https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:150651003
• Fair, C. C., Patel, P., & Maheshwari, G. (2024). Looking for Individual-Level Evidence for the Ethnic Security Dilemma Revisited: A Study of Balochistan. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2024.2330155.
• Gassebner, M., Schaudt, P., & Wong, M. H. L. (2023). Armed groups: Competition and political violence. Journal of Development Economics, 162, 103052. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103052
• Gattani, Y. (2021). The resilience of Baloch insurgencies: Understanding the fifth period. E-International Relations, 2.
• Gholizadeh, A., Madani, S. and Saneinia, S. (2020), "A geoeconomic and geopolitical review of Gwadar Port on belt and road initiative", Maritime Business Review, Vol. 5 No. 4, pp. 335-349. https://doi.org/10.1108/MABR-11-2019-0051
• Golley, J., & Ingle, A. (2018). The Belt and Road Initiative: How to Win Friends and Influence People. In J. Golley & L. Jaivin (Eds.), Prosperity (pp. 42–60). ANU Press. http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv1rmjm7.9.
• Gökten, K. (2019). China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and New South Asia Geopolitics. Fiscaoeconomia, 3(1), 160-176. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.2019.01.006
• Grare, F. (2013). Balochistan: The State Versus The Nation. The Carnegie Papers, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/04/11/balochistan-state-versus-nation-pub-51488.
• Grill, B., Dunigan, M., Clarke, C. P., & Paul, C. (2013). Baluchistan, 1973–1978: Case Outcome: COIN Win. In Paths to Victory: Detailed Insurgency Case Studies (pp. 355–362). RAND Corporation. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/j.ctt5hhsjk.42.
• Gurr, T. R. (1970). "Why Men Rebel." Princeton University Press.
• Güneysu, G. (2019). Geleceğin Eski Savaş Alanı olarak Beluçistan. Anadolu Strateji Dergisi, 1(1), 61-71.
• Heeg, J. (2011). Insurgency in Balochistan. Fort Leavenworth: FMSO. https://baluchsarmachar.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/insugency-in-balochistan_final.pdf.
• Heinkel J. C., deVillafranca, R. (2016). Could Pakistan Lose Balochistan? Balochistan’s Insurgency and its Implications for Pakistan and the Region. Journal of Strategic Intelligence, Summer, 62-72.
• Hotz, H. W. (2006). A Short Introduction to Game Theory. Retrieved from https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:31938431
• Hussain, S. S. (2024). Technological and Human Resource Challenges in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Strategies for Sustainable Development. Journal of Global Peace and Security Studies, 5(2).
• Jain S. (2018). Balochistan: On the International Drugs Superhighway. Strategic Analysis, 42 (5), 545- 553, DOI: 10.1080/09700161.2018.1523077.
• Javaid, U., Jahangir J. (2015). Balochistan: A Key Factor in Global Politics. South Asian Studies. 30 (2), 91-105.
• Johnson, P. L., & Thurber, C. (2020). The Security-Force Ethnicity (SFE) Project: Introducing a new dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 37(1), 106-129. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894217709012.
• Kalin, M., & Siddiqui, N. (2020). National identity, religious tolerance, and group conflict: Insights from a survey experiment in Pakistan. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 37(1), 58–82. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26959920.
• Kayathwal, M. K., Kayathwal M. K. (1994). Pak-Afghan Relations: Durand Line Issue. Indian Journal of Asian Affairs, 7(2), 37-46. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41950383.
• Khan, S., & Ahmed, Z. S. (2024). "Impact of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor on Nation-Building in Pakistan: A Case Study of Balochistan." Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 33 (150), 1006-1020, DOI: 10.1080/10670564.2023.2299770.
• Khetran, M. S. B. (2011). Crisis in Balochistan: challenges and opportunities. Strategic Studies, 31(1/2), 24–39. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48529345.
• Krieger, H. (2023). Von den völkerrechtlichen Fesseln befreit? – Zur Ordnungsfunktion des Völke‍rrechts in einer Welt im Umbruch. Der Staat, 62(4), 579–612. https://doi.org/10.3790/staa.62.4.579.
• Kupecz, M. (2012). Pakistan’s Baloch Insurgency: History, Conflict Drivers & Regional Implications. International Affairs Review, 20 (3), 95-110.
• Lin, W., & Iftikhar, R. (2024). CEPC and Gwadar Port: Viabilities and Challenges. Annals of Human and Social Sciences, 5(2), 575-581.
• Malik, N., & Jamil, M. (2023). Security challenges and policy initiatives: an analysis from CPEC standpoint. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, 16(3), 269–284. https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2023.2280887.
• Marzen, C. G. (2020). Balochistan, Self-Determination, and US Foreign Policy. NCJ Int'l L., 45, 195-215.
• Murtha, J. R. (2011). The Strategic Importance of Balochistan. Master’s Dissertation, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey.
• Nabeel, F., & Asif, Dr. M. (2019). Pakistan’s Counter-Insurgency Campaign In Balochistan: An Analysis. Journal of Contemporary Studies, 8(1), 52–70. https://doi.org/10.54690/jcs.v8i1.30
• Notezai, M. A. (2019, 30 May). Will Balochistan Blow up China’s Belt and Road. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/30/will-balochistan-blow-up-chinas-belt-and-road/.
• O'Neill, B. (1994). Game theory models of peace and war. Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, 2, 995-1053.
• Rasool, M., Dr. Munawar Hussain, & Dr Mariam Asif. (2024). The Balancing acts: Afghanistan, India and strategies for managing Pakistan-Russia engagement in the region. Al-Qanṭara, 10(3), 172–188. Retrieved from https://alqantarajournal.com/index.php/Journal/article/view/567.
• Rizwan, M., Waqar M., Arshad M. (2018). A Wave of Insurgency in Balochistan. IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 19(2), 97-105.
• Safdar, M. T. (2021). The Local Roots of Chinese Engagement in Pakistan. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 2, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/02/local-roots-of-chinese-engagement-in-pakistan-pub-84668.
• Saleem, A. H. (2017). CPEC and Balochistan: Prospects of Socio-political Stability. Strategic Studies, 37(4), 118–132. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48537575.
• Samad, Y. (2014). Understanding the Insurgency in Balochistan. Commonwealth & Comparative Politics, 52 (2), 293-320. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2014.894280.
• Schetter, C. (2013). The Durand Line: The Afghan-Pakistani Border Region between Pashtunistan, Tribalistan and Talibanistan. Internationales Asien Forum, 44(1/2), 47–214.
• Shah, H. J., & Khan, A. (2023). Globalization and nation states – Challenges and opportunities for Pakistan. Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 8(1), 100621. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2023.100621
• Shah, S. A. (2023). Higher Education, Neoliberalism, and Conflict: A Case of the University of Balochistan in Pakistan. Doctoral Dissertation, Loyola University Chicago.
• Shukla, A. (2020). Theoretical Underpinnings of India–Pakistan Relations. India Quarterly, 76(2), 294–312. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48589367.
• Siddiqi, F. H. (2012). Security Dynamics in Pakistani Balochistan: Religious Activism and Ethnic Conflict in the War on Terror. Asian Affairs: An American Review, 39(3), 157–175. DOI: 10.1080/00927678.2012.704834.
• State Department (1954). Iran-Pakistan Border Dispute: An Evaluation of the Iranian Claim, Intelligence Report, No. 6564, Department of State, Office of Intelligence Research.
• Syed, J. (2020). Security and the Belt and Road: A Critical Analysis of Threats to Chinese Nationals and Businesses in Pakistan. In China’s Belt and Road Initiative in a Global Context (pp. 131–180). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18959-4_7
• Tüysüzoğlu, G. (2014). Kürt ve Beluci Ulusçuluklarının Benzeşen ve Ayrışan Yönleri. Ortadoğu Yıllığı 2013, 9, 415-442.
• Tüysüzoğlu, G. (2013). Bölgesel vekâlet savaşının yeni adresi: Belucistan. Yeni Asya International. https://www.yeniasya.com.tr/gokturk-tuysuzoglu/bolgesel-vekalet-savasinin-yeni-adresi-8200-belucistan_213500.
• Wilkens, A. (2015). The Crowded-Out Conflict: Pakistan’s Balochistan in its fifth Round of Insurgency. Afghanistan Analysis Network. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-crowded-out-conflict-pakistansbalochistan-in-its-fifth-round-of-insurgency/.
• Ullah, H., Ahmad, R., & Khan, M. M. (2020). Afghanistan: US-Taliban Peace Talks: CPEC Perspective. Conflict Studies Quarterly, (32).
• UNODC (2011). The Global Afghan Opium Trade: A Threat Assessment. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Vienna. https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/Global_Afghan_Opium_Trade_2011-web.pdf.
• Yiğit, D. (2019). Baloch Nationalism and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Journal of Politics and International Studies. 5 (1), 11-24.