Satın alma yöneticileri endeksinin (PMI) ekonomik ve finansal endekslerle ilişkisinin Türkiye için Var analizi

Year 2023, , 183 - 202, 30.12.2023

Volkan Dayan , Serdar Erdogan

https://doi.org/10.47934/tife.12.02.03

Abstract

Türkiye’de 2018-2021 yılları arası döneme yönelik Satın Alma Yöneticileri Endeksinin (PMI) çeşitli ekonomik ve finansal endekslerle aralarındaki ilişkileri VAR analizi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre, çeşitli endekslerin aralarında anlamlı ilişkiler bulunmakla birlikte, PMI üzerinde en etkili olan endeksin ihracat iklimi endeksi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. PMI ve EXI arasında kısa dönemde pozitif yönlü bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Ayrıca EXI’den PMI’a doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi de bulunmaktadır. Bu durum satın alma yöneticilerinin yatırım kararları üzerinde ihracatı etkili olduğunu, dolayısıyla pazar odaklı stratejilerin işletme politikalarında önemli bir yeri bulunduğu ortaya koymuştur. Çalışmanın ekonomide karar vericilere, araştırmacılara ve literatüre önemli katkılar sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

Satın Alma Yöneticileri Endeksi, Ekonomik- Finansal Göstergeler, VAR Analizi

The relationship between the purchasing managers' index (PMI) with economic and financial indicators in Turkey: A Var analysis

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between Turkey’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and various economic and financial indicators was investigated. The data for the period 2018.4 - 2021.2 were used in the analysis, and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method was preferred. According to the results, although there is a significant relationship between various indicators, it has been determined that the most effective index on PMI is the Export Climate Index. A positive relationship was found between PMI and the Export Climate Index in the short run. There is also a unidirectional causality relationship from the Export Climate Index to PMI. This situation has revealed that exports are influential on the investment decisions of purchasing managers, and therefore market-oriented strategies have an important place in business policies. It is thought that this study will make important contributions to policymakers, researchers and literature.

Keywords

VAR Analysis, Purchasing Managers, Economic-Financial Indicators

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