Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance

Year 2025, Volume: 39 Issue: 1, 14 - 25, 08.01.2025

Emre Bulut

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1443242

Abstract

This article examines the impact of WTI crude oil prices on nine city indices traded on the BIST, using daily data from 2014 to 2024. The study employs unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and FMOLS estimation to investigate the long-term relationship between oil prices and city indices. The results indicate that oil prices and city indices exhibit a symmetrical and significant relationship in the long run, with different degrees of impact across city indices. The XSANT Index, comprising companies in and around Antalya province, is the most influenced by crude oil prices, whereas the XSIST Index, comprising companies in Istanbul province, is the least affected. The findings have important implications for investors and policymakers who need to monitor oil price fluctuations and their effects on financial market indices.

Keywords

Crude oil prices, BIST, FMOLS, Cointengency, City Indicies

Petrol Fiyatlarının BIST Şehir Endeksleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Şirket Performansında Bölgesel Farklılıklar

Abstract

Bu makale, WTI ham petrol fiyatlarının BIST'te işlem gören dokuz şehir endeksi üzerindeki etkisini 2014-2024 yılları arasındaki günlük verileri kullanarak incelemektedir. Çalışmada, petrol fiyatları ve şehir endeksleri arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi araştırmak için birim kök testleri, eşbütünleşme analizi ve FMOLS tahmini kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, petrol fiyatları ve şehir endekslerinin uzun dönemde simetrik ve anlamlı bir ilişki sergilediğini ve şehir endeksleri arasında farklı etki dereceleri olduğunu göstermektedir. Antalya ili ve çevresindeki şirketlerin oluşturduğu XSANT Endeksi ham petrol fiyatlarından en çok etkilenen endeks olurken, İstanbul ilindeki şirketlerin oluşturduğu XSIST Endeksi en az etkilenen endeks olmuştur. Bulgular, petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaları ve bunların finansal piyasa endeksleri üzerindeki etkilerini izlemesi gereken yatırımcılar ve politika yapıcılar için önemli çıkarımlara sahiptir.

Keywords

Ham petrol fiyatları, şehir endeksleri, BIST, eşbütünleşme, FMOLS

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