İhracat Çeşitliliğinin Türkiye’de İller Bazında İktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi

Year 2025, Volume: 39 Issue: 1, 1 - 13, 08.01.2025

Muhammed Benli , Sümeyra Gültekin

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1513359

Abstract

İhracat çeşitliliği, bir ulusal başarı ölçütü olmanın ötesinde, bölgesel kalkınma, yerel istihdam, inovasyon kapasitesi ve ekonomik dayanıklılıkla yakından ilişkilidir. Mevcut çalışma, ihracat çeşitliliğinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini 2004-2018 dönemi için Türkiye illeri örneğinde ele almaktadır. Bu amaçla, gözlenemeyen heterojenliği dikkate alan statik panel veri modelleri kullanılarak Sabit Etkiler (FE) ve Rassal Etkiler (RE) tahmincileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, kişi başına düşen gelir ile ihracat yoğunluğu (HHI ve GINI) arasında anlamlı bir negatif ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Diğer bir deyişle, ihracat çeşitliliği arttıkça kişi başına düşen gelirler de artmaktadır. Diğer yandan, THEIL endeksi için elde edilen katsayılar istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Bu nedenle, ihracat çeşitliliğinin farklı boyutlarını ölçen endekslerin kavramsal benzerliklerine rağmen farklı etkiler yansıttığı ifade edilebilir. Bulgular, ihracat çeşitliliğinin teşvik edilmesinin bölgesel ekonomik büyümeyi ve dayanıklılığı artırabileceğini işaret etmekte, politika yapıcıların özellikle az gelişmiş bölgelerde ihracat portföylerinin çeşitlendirilmesini teşvik eden stratejilere öncelik vermesi gerektiğini, böylece dengeli bir ekonomik büyüme sağlanabileceğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

İhracat Çeşitliliği, Theil İndeksi, Gini İndeksi, HHI, Panel Veri Analizi

The Impact of Export Diversification on Economic Growth by Provinces in Türkiye

Abstract

Beyond being a national measure of success, export diversification is closely linked to regional development, local employment, innovation capacity, and economic resilience. In the current study, we investigate the impact of export diversification on economic growth by provinces in the case of Türkiye for the period 2004-2018. For the purpose of the study, we employ static panel data models using Fixed Effects (FE) and Random Effects (RE) estimators, which account for unobserved heterogeneity. The findings of the study show that there is a significant negative relationship between per capita income and export intensity (HHI and GINI). In other words, as export diversification increases, per capita incomes increase. On the other hand, the coefficients obtained for the THEIL index are statistically insignificant. Therefore, it can be argued that indices measuring different dimensions of export diversification reflect different effects despite their conceptual similarities. The findings suggest that promoting export diversification can enhance regional economic growth and resilience, indicating that policymakers should prioritize strategies that encourage diversification of export portfolios, especially in underdeveloped regions, to foster balanced economic growth.

Keywords

Export Diversification, Theil Index, Gini Index, HHI, Panel Data Analysis

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