IS ARMEY CURVE VALID IN TURKISH ECONOMY?

Year 2018, Prof. Dr. Harun TERZI Special Issue, 335 - 346, 19.09.2018

Rahmi Yamak , Havvanur Feyza Erdem

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.442807

Cited By: 5

Abstract

According to Armey (1995), there is quadratic
relationship between economic growth and government size. In the literature,
this functional relationship is known as Armey curve. Armey curve assumes that
the relationship between two variables is an inverted U shaped and attends to
optimal government size. According to Armey curve, in an economy, the maximum value
of economic growth is obtained when government size is optimal. In this study, for the Turkish economy, the validity of Armey curve
was tested for the period of 1998-2016. In the study, ARDL bound test was
applied and the validity of Armey curve was examined by using long-term series.
The long-term series were obtained by using Hodrick-Prescott method. The results of this paper indicate that the
Armey curve is valid for Turkey. It can be said that the relationship between
long-term economic growth and long-term government size is nonlinear and quadratic.

Keywords

Armey Curve, ARDL Bounds Testing Approach, Hodrick-Prescott Filter.

TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE ARMEY EĞRİSİ GEÇERLİ MİDİR?

Abstract

Armey
(1995)’ e göre ekonomik büyüme ile kamu kesimi büyüklüğü arasında ikinci
dereden fonksiyonel bir ilişki söz konusudur. Literatürde bu ilişki Armey
eğrisi olarak isimlendirilir. Armey eğrisi iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin
ters U şeklinde olduğunu varsayar ve optimal kamu kesimi büyüklüğü ne olmalıdır sorusuyla
ilgilenir. Armey eğrisine göre, bir ekonomide kamu kesiminin büyüklüğü optimal
olduğunda ekonomik büyüme maksimum değerini alır. Bu çalışmada 1998-2016 dönemi
için Türkiye ekonomisinde Armey eğrisinin geçerli olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. Çalışmada
ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı uygulanmış ve Armey eğrisinin geçerliliği uzun dönem
serileri kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Uzun dönem seriler
Hodrick-Prescott yöntemi ile elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada sonuç olarak, Türkiye
ekonomisinde Armey eğrisinin geçerli olduğu belirlenmiştir. Böylece uzun dönem
ekonomik büyüme ve uzun dönem kamu kesimi büyüklüğü arasındaki ilişkinin doğrusal
olmayan, ikinci dereceden fonksiyonel bir ilişki olduğu söylenebilir. 

Keywords

Armey Eğrisi, ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı, Hodrick-Prescott Filtreleme

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