ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON Apis mellifera POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

Year 2022, Volume: 22 Issue: 1, 31 - 44, 19.05.2022

Dilşan Öksüzoğlu , Murat Aydın

https://doi.org/10.31467/uluaricilik.1075065

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Apis mellifera is one of the species that aid in the maintenance of ecosystem diversity and spread all around the world, yet their numbers are subjected to a decline in the near future. In this study, A. mellifera species’ occurrence data obtained from the United Kingdom, Netherlands, France, Germany, Zambia was studied by using the present and future projection models generated by using principal component analysis (PCA) on 19 bioclimatic variables. Regarding the future projections, the honey bee species will be significantly decreased in number in Europe, whereas in North America, the change from current to future was somewhat ambiguous. Therefore, the growth rates of the bioclimatic variables from present to the future for both Europe and North America were compared with each other to conclude the most effective bioclimatic variables on the species’ occurrences. In conclusion, the most effective bioclimatic variables that caused the major decline in European clades of this species were assessed as the severity of winters, precipitation seasonality, temperature seasonality, and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter.

Keywords

Apis mellifera, climate change, PCA ecological niche modeling, projections, bioclimatic variables, occurrences

Thanks

Prof. Dr. Christopher Mayack

Ekolojik Niş Modelleme: Apis mellifera Popülasyon Dağılımı Üzerine Deneysel Çalışma

Abstract

Ekosistem çeşitliliğinde en önemli türlerden olan bal arısı, Apis mellifera türü dünya genelinde birçok bölgeye yayılım göstermiştir fakat iklim değişikliği sebebiyle yakın gelecekte sayılarının azalma tehdidi ile karşı karşıyadır. Bu nedenle iklimsel değişkenlerin bal arıları üzerindeki etkileri daha detaylı incelenmeli ve potansiyel negatif etki faktörleri belirlenmelidir. Bu çalışmada Birleşik Krallık, Hollanda, Fransa, Almanya ve Zambiya’da bulunduğu kaydedilen A. mellifera verileri iki farklı izdüşümü modeli yardımıyla şimdiki zaman ve gelecek tahminlerine yansıtıldı. Gelecek tahmininde Avrupa genelinde bal arılarında gözle görülür bir nüfus azalışı kaydedilirken Kuzey Amerika’da değişim, günümüze göre, çok azdı. Daha sonra PCA analiz yöntemi kullanarak 19 iklimsel değişken bir arada değerlendirildi ve günümüzden geleceğe büyüme oranları hesaplandı. Bu çalışma doğrultusunda genel olarak Avrupa’da gelecekte en çok değişiklik gösteren iklimsel değişkenlerin Kuzey Amerika’da gelecekte kritik bir değişikliğe uğramayacağı sonucuna ulaşıldı. Sonuç olarak, bu tür için yüksek orandaki nüfus azalışında etkili olan ve etkilerini yakın gelecekte Avrupa’da gösterecek olan değişkenler kışların şiddeti, en soğuk bölgenin ortalama sıcaklığı, yağış ve sıcaklık mevsimselliği olarak belirlendi.

Keywords

Apis mellifera, iklim değişikliği, PCA, iklimsel değişkenler, ekolojik niş modelleme

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