Long-Term Meteorological Drought Analysis of Bursa Province

Year 2025, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 231 - 246

İsmail Faki , Murat Pınarlık , Zeliha Selek

Abstract

Drought disaster is at the center of fundamental problems of civilizations. Meteorological drought is observed primarily due to lack of precipitation, high temperatures, and increased evaporation. Meteorological drought is followed by agricultural and hydrological drought. Hydrometeorological time series include trends particularly over the last 30 years as a result of the impact of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this study, drought analyses were conducted for Bursa province, which intersects with the Nilüfer sub-basin, which is in the Susurluk Basin, one of the 25 river basins of Turkey. In the analysis, precipitation data of 17116-Bursa and 17676-Uludağ stations between 1967-2022 were used. Drought analyzes were made using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Percent of Normal Index (PNI) methods. With the drought analyses, drought phases were found by calculating the amount of drought recurrence, drought duration, drought severity, and drought amplitude values. The seasons with the most drought were determined. As a result of the drought analyses, it was observed that the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Percent of Normal Index (PNI) methods gave compatible results with each other.

Keywords

meteorological drought, standardized precipitation index, percentage of normal index, drought, Bursa province

Bursa İli Uzun Dönem Meteorolojik Kuraklık Analizi

Abstract

Kuraklık afeti medeniyetlerin temel sorunlarının merkezinde yer almaktadır. Yağış azlığı, yüksek sıcaklık, buharlaşmanın artması ile öncelikle meteorolojik kuraklık görülmektedir. Meteorolojik kuraklığı, tarımsal kuraklık ve son olarak da hidrolojik kuraklık takip etmektedir. Hidrometeorolojik zaman serileri, Hükümetler Arası İklim Değişikliği Paneli'ne göre iklim değişikliği etkisinin bir sonucu olarak özellikle son 30 yıldaki eğilimleri içermektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin 25 adet akarsu havzasından biri olan Susurluk Havzasının alt havzası olan Nilüfer alt havzası ile sınırları kesişen Bursa ili için kuraklık analizleri yapılmıştır. Analizlerde, 17116-Bursa istasyonu ve 17676-Uludağ istasyonunun 1967-2022 yılları arasındaki yağış verileri kullanılmıştır. Meteorolojik kuraklık yöntemlerinden Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndisi (SYİ), Normalin Yüzdesi İndisi (NYİ) yöntemleri ile kuraklık analizleri yapılmıştır. Yapılan kuraklık analizleri ile; kuraklık tekerrür miktarı, kuraklık süresi, kuraklık şiddeti, kuraklık genliği değerleri hesaplanarak kurak evreler bulunmuştur. En fazla kuraklık yaşanan mevsimler tespit edilmiştir. Kuraklık analizleri sonucunda SYİ ve NYİ yöntemlerinin birbirleri ile uyumlu sonuçlar verdiği görülmüştür.

Keywords

meteorolojik kuraklık, standartlaştırılmış yağış indisi, normalin yüzdesi indisi, kuraklık, Bursa ili

References

• Aktürk, G., Zeybekoğlu, U., & Yıldız, O. (2022). Drought Investigation Using SPI and SPEI Methods: A Case Study in Kırıkkale. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, 14(2), 762-776. https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.1100886
• Altuğlu, B. (1972). Water Accumulation in Soil According to Climatic Factors of the Aegean Region, Climate Characteristics, Drought Indices, Identification of Dry and Wet Months, Ministry of Village Affairs, General Directorate of Soil and Water, Menemen Soil and Water Research Institute Publications, 32, Menemen.
• Booth, A. W., & Voeller D. (1967). Meteorological Drought and its Social Impact in Illionis, Dept. Of Geography, Water Resour. Dep., Univ of Illionis, Urbana, III.
• Çamalan, G., Akgündüz, S. A. Ayvacı, H., Çetin, S., Arabacı, H., & Çoşkun, M. (2017). Drought Change And Trend Projectıons Accordıng To SPEI Index In Turkey, IV.Turkey Climate Change Congress, TCCC 2017 5-7 Temmuz 2017, Istanbul.
• Çavuş, Y., & Aksoy, H. (2019). Spatial drought characterization for Seyhan River basin in the Mediterranean region of Turkey. Water (Switzerland), 11(7), Article 1331. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11071331.
• Çelenk, Ş. (1974). Examination of Drought from a Meteorological Perspective in the Southeastern Anatolia Region, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock, General Directorate of State Meteorological Affairs, Ankara.
• Çelik, M. A., & Gülersoy, A. E. (2018). Climate Classification And Drought Analysis Of Mersin. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Journal of Social Sciences, 16(1), 1-26. https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.411475
• Çetin, M., Aksoy, H., Önöz, B., Eriş, E., İshak, Y. M., Selek, B., Aksu, H., Burgan, İ. H., Eşit, M., Çavuş, Y., & Orta, S. (2018). Deriving Accumulated Precipitation Deficits from Drought Severity-Duration-Frequency Curves: A Case Study in Adana Province, Turkey. 1st International, 14th National Congress on Agricultural Structures and Irrigation 26-28 September 2018. Antalya.
• Dabanlı, İ., Şen, Z., Yeleğen, Ö, M., Şişman, E., Selek, B., & Güçlü, S. Y. (2016). Trend Assessment by the Innovative-Şen Method. Water Resour Manage, DOI 10.1007/s11269-016-1478-4.
• Dinç, N., Aydinşakir, K., Işık, M., & Büyüktaş, D. (2016). Drought analysis of Antalya province by standardized precipitation index (SPI). Derim, 33(2), 279-298. https://doi.org/10.16882/derim.2016.267912.
• DSİ. 2020. “Soil Water Resources”. https://dsi.gov.tr/Sayfa/Detay/754#:~:text=T%C3%BCrkiye'nin%20uzun%20y%C4%B1llar%20ya%C4%9F%C4%B1%C5%9F,300%20mm%2Fy%C4%B1l)%20yerdir. Access:13.06.2021.
• Erinç, S. (1965). An Experiment on Precipitation Effectiveness and a New Index, Istanbul University Geography Institute, No.:41, Istanbul.
• Fidan, İ. H. (2011). Drought analysis by standardized precipitation index (SPI) and determination of drought occurrence probabilities through using Markov chains in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Master's Thesis. Çukurova University, Adana.
• Gümüş, V. (2017). Hydrological Drought Analysis of Asi River Basin with Streamflow Drought Index. Gazi University Journal of Science Part C: Design and Technology, 5 (1) , 65-73.
• WMO/OCHA-Reliefweb. 2016 “Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices”. https://reliefweb.int/report/world/handbook-drought-indicators-and-indices? gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwhvi0BhA4EiwAX25ujzQhbEa1VwF8VyzuN8sfLIMUCIiPWVX74RRWDXtei9J6PR4D6zLZhoClsgQAvD_BwE. Access: 10.06.2021.
• Ilgar, R. (2010). Drought Status and Trends in the Dardanelles and the Standardized Precipitation Index Determination. Marmara Geography Journal, (22), 183-204.
• IPCC. (1996). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WGI, Climate Change 1995:The Science of Climate Change, edited by Houghton et al., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
• İnandık, H. (1951). Drought Indices and Climate Diagrams of the Diyarbakır Region. Istanbul University Geography Institute Journal, No.:2, Istanbul.
• Karl, R. T. (1986). The Sensitivity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and Palmer's Z-Index to Their Calibration Coefficients Including Potential Evapotranspiration. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 25(1):77-86. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1986)025<0077:TSOTPD>2.0.CO;2
• Keskin, K., & Şorman, A. Ü. (2010). Assesment of the Drought Pattern Change in Camlıdere Basin Using SPI Index. The Fourth International Scientific Conference, Balwois, Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia - 25, 29 May 2010.
• Keskiner, A., Çetin, M., Uçan, M., & Şimşek, M. (2016). Meteorological Drought Analysis With Different Return Periods by Using Standardized Precipitation Index In Geographic Information Systems Environment: A Case Study In The Seyhan River Basin. Çukurova Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 31 (2) , 79-90.
• Keskiner, A. D., & Şimşek, O. (2023). Probabilistic Meteorological Drought Analysis: An Application in the Lake District. Süleyman Demirel University Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences, 27(1), 160-169. https://doi.org/10.19113/sdufenbed.1213855
• Kumanlıoğlu, A., & Fıstıkoğlu, O. (2019). Meteorological Drought Analysis of Upper Gediz Basin Precipitations. Dokuz Eylül University Faculty of Engineering Science and Engineering Journal, 21(62), 509-523. https://doi.org/10.21205/deufmd.2019216216
• Kömüşçü, Ü. A. (1999). Using the SPI to Analyze Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Drought in Turkey. Drought Network News (1994-2001). 49.
• Li, W., Fu, R., Juarez, R.I.N., & Fernandes, K. (2008). Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the A-mazon region. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society, B, 363: 1767-1772.
• Mckee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January, pp.179-184, Anaheim, CA.
• Palmer, W. C. (1965). Meteorological drought. Research Paper No. 45, U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C.
• Sarış, F., & Gedik, F. (2021). Meteorological Drought Analysis in Konya Closed Basin. Journal of Geography (42), 295-308.
• Sırdaş, S. (2002). Meteorological drought modelling and application to Turkey. Doctoral Thesis. Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul.
• Sırdaş, S., & Şen Z. (2003). Meteorological drought modelling and application to Turkey, ITU Journal, 2 (2): 95-103.
• Şen, Z. (2009). Drought Disaster and Modern Calculation Methods, Istanbul.
• Tonkaz, T. (2008). Drought Analysis Using First Order Markov Chain İn Southeastern Anatolia Project Area. Journal of Agriculture Faculty Harran University, 12 (1):13-18.
• Topçuoğlu, K., Özgürel, M., & Pamuk, G. (2004). A New Drought Index for Turkey. Journal of Agriculture Faculty of Ege University, 41(3):145-153.
• Tümertekin, E. (1955). Economic Geography. Agriculture in Arid Regions, Ankara.
• Türkeş, M. (1990). Arid Regions in Turkey and Significant Dry Years. Doctoral Thesis. Istanbul University, Istanbul.
• Yeğnidemir, M. K. (2005). A Drought Analysis Of Theinner Anatolia Region Using The Standardized Precipitation index (SPI) Method. Master's Thesis. Kirikkale University, Kirikkale.
• Yıldız, O. (2007). Hydrological Drought Assessment with SPI Method in the Upper Kızılırmak Basin, 5th National Hydrology Congres, September 2007, METU-Ankara, p.143-151.
• Wilhite, Donald A. & Glantz, Michael H. (1985). Understanding the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions. Drought Mitigation Center Faculty Publications. 20.
• Willeke, G., Hosking, J. R. M., Wallis, J. R., & Guttman, N. B. (1994). The National Drought Atlas, Institute for Water Resources Report 94–NDS–4, U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, 587s.
• World Meteorological Organization. (2012). Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide (M. Svoboda, M. Hayes and D. Wood). (WMO-No. 1090), Geneva.
• Wu, H., Hayes, M.J., Weiss, A., & Hu, Q. (2001). An Evaluatin of the Standardized Precipitation Index, The China-Z Index and The Statistical Z-Score. International Journal of Climatology, 21: 745-758.