THE EFFECT OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON INNOVATION: AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH FOR OECD COUNTRIES

Year 2022, Issue: 4, 707 - 722, 26.10.2022

Serap Barış

https://doi.org/10.51551/verimlilik.1082748

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Purpose: Innovation is one of the key factors behind the long-term economic growth and competitiveness of nations. Therefore, it is important to know the factors that determine innovation. Firms are affected by many internal and external factors in their innovation decisions. In recent years, it has been suggested in the literature that one of these factors affecting innovation is the uncertainty of economic policy. In this context, the aim of the study is to empirically examine the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and innovation in OECD countries.

Methodology: Using panel data analysis methods, the data of 14 OECD countries for the period 1997-2019 were included in the analysis according to the data availability criterion. In the analysis process, firstly, preliminary tests (horizontal section dependence, homogeneity and unit root tests) were performed, and then Westerlund (2007) cointegration test was performed to determine the long-term relationship between the variables. Finally, the analysis was completed with Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test.

Findings: Analysis findings show that there is no cointegration relationship between economic policy uncertainty and innovation in 14 OECD countries. The results of the causality test also support the cointegration test and reveal that there is no causal relationship between these variables.

Originality: This study differs from other studies in the literature by investigating the effects of economic policy uncertainty on innovation in the sample of OECD countries and with different causality tests.

Keywords

Innovation, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Real Option Theory, Panel Data Analysis

EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİĞİNİN İNOVASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Abstract

Amaç: İnovasyon, ulusların uzun dönemli ekonomik büyümelerinin ve rekabet gücünü artırmalarının ardındaki temel faktörlerden biridir. Dolayısıyla inovasyonu belirleyen faktörlerin bilinmesi önemlidir. Firmalar inovasyon kararlarında firma içi ve dışı pek çok faktörden etkilenmektedir. İnovasyonu etkileyen bu faktörlerden birinin de ekonomi politikası belirsizliği olduğu literatürdeson yıllarda öne sürülmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve inovasyon ilişkisini OECD ülkeleri özelinde ampirik olarak incelemektir.

Yöntem: Panel veri analiz yöntemlerinin kullanılarak, verilerin ulaşılabilirliği kriterine göre 14 OECD ülkesinin 1997-2019 dönemi verileri analize katılmıştır. Analiz sürecinde ilk olarak ön testler (yatay kesit bağımlılığı, homojenlik ve birim kök testleri), sonrasında değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespit edilmesi amacıyla Westerlund (2007) eşbütünleşme testi yapılmıştır. Son olarak Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi ile analiz tamamlanmıştır.

Bulgular: Analiz bulguları 14 OECD ülkesi özelinde ekonomik politika belirsizliği ile inovasyon arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Nedensellik testi sonuçları da eşbütünleşme testini destekler nitelikte olup bu değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Özgünlük: Bu çalışma, ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin inovasyon üzerindeki etkilerini OECD ülkeleri örnekleminde ve farklı nedensellik testleriyle araştırarak literatürdeki diğer çalışmalardan farklılaşmaktadır.

Keywords

İnovasyon, Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği, Reel Opsiyon Teorisi, Panel Veri Analizi

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