Holt'un Doğrusal Yöntemi ile Net İşletme Sermayesi Tahminlemesi: Türkiye'den Kanıtlar

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 330 - 341, 24.10.2023

Tolga Tuzcuoğlu

Öz

Bu araştırma makalesi, işletmelerin optimal net işletme sermayesi seviyelerini geleceğe yönelik bir
perspektiften proaktif olarak izlemelerine olanak sağlamak amacıyla tahmine dayalı bir metodoloji
sunmaktadır. Buna ek olarak çalışma, firmaların operasyonel hedeflerine uygun ideal net işletme
sermayelerini belirlemelerine destek olmayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında Türkiye'deki
BIST-30 şirketlerinin 2016 ikinci çeyreğinden 2023 ikinci çeyreğine kadar net işletme sermayesi
verileri analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma, Türkiye'nin halka açık en büyük 24 şirketinin hem negatif hem de
pozitif değerleri kapsayan çok çeşitli net işletme sermayesi değerlerine sahip olduğunu ortaya
çıkarmıştır. Gelecek için öngörülen trend, net işletme sermayesi değerlerinin önümüzdeki dört
çeyrekte hem benzer eğilimde devam edeceğini hem de değişikliklere uğrayacağını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşletme Finansı, Net İşletme Sermayesi Yönetimi, Finansal Tahminleme, Zaman Serisi Analizi, Holt'un Doğrusal Modeli

Etik Beyan

Araştırma ikincil verilere sahip bir çalışma olduğu için etik beyana gerek yoktur.

Net Working Capital Prediction with Holt's Linear Method: Evidence from Turkey

Öz

This research paper introduces a predictive methodology for forecasting net working capital to allow
companies to proactively monitor their optimal net working capital levels from a future-oriented
perspective. Additionally, it aims to assist organizations in identifying their ideal net working capital
that aligns with their operational goals. The analysis of the net working capital data for the BIST-30
corporations in Turkey from the second quarter of 2016 to 2023 revealed that Turkey's 24 largest
publicly traded companies had diverse net working capital values, encompassing both negative and
positive figures. The projected future trends suggested that net working capital values will persist and
undergo modifications during the following four quarters within the expected timeframe.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Corporate Finance, Net Working Capital Management, Financial Forecasting, Time Series Analysis, Holt's Linear Model

Etik Beyan

Since the research is a study with secondary data, there is no need for an ethical statement.

Kaynakça

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