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Year 2024, Volume: 22 Issue: 4, 242 - 261

Ayşegül Şahin

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1529613

Abstract

References

  • Abasimi, I., Aulia, A. R., and Khasanah, U. (2023) “Analysis of House Price Determination in 13 G20 Countries: Random Effect Model”, Journal of Asset Management and Public Economy, 2(2): 65-81.
  • Adams, Z., and Füss, R. (2010) “Macroeconomic Determinants of International Housing Markets”, Journal of Housing Economics, 19(1): 38-50.
  • Akpolat, A. G. (2022) “The Asymmetric Effects of Real Variables on Real Housing Prices: A Nonlinear ARDL Analysis for Turkey”, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 17(3): 565-590.
  • Akkaş, M. E. and Sayilgan, G. (2015) “Housing Prices and Mortgage Interest Rate: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test”, Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting, 2(4): 572-583.
  • Akyol Özcan, K. (2023) “Konut Fiyat Endeksi Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Araştırma: Asimetrik Eş Bütünleşme Analizi”, EKEV Akademi Dergisi, 93: 283-307.
  • Aydın, R., Aydın, B., and Lögün, A. (2021) “Konut Fiyat Endeksini Etkileyen Faktörler: TR72 Bölgesi Örneği”, 5. Uluslararası Erciyes Bilimsel Araştırmalar Kongresi, 335-344.
  • Aydın, S. (2023). “Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatları ile Makroekonomik Göstergeler Arasında Nedensellik Ilişkisinin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Analiz”, Turkish Business Journal, 4(8): 83-100.
  • Badurlar, İ. Ö. (2008). “Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatları ile Makro Ekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki Ilişkinin Araştırılması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1): 223-238.
  • Özcan, G., and Başaran Tormuş, N. (2018). Konut Fiyat Endeksi ve Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Uluslararası Politik, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Kongresi, 2, 505-514.
  • Canbay, Ş., and Kırca, M. (2020) “Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Relationships between Housıng Loan Interest Rates and Housıng Sales in Turkey”, Academic Studies in Social, Human and Administrative Sciences- II, 52-62.
  • Capozza, D. R., Hendershott, P. H., Mack, C., and Mayer, C. J. (2002) “Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics”, 2002 National Bureau of Economic Research NBER Working Paper No. 9262
  • Cohen, V., and Karpavičiūtė, L. (2017) “The Analysis of The Determinants of Housing Prices”, Independent Journal of Management & Production, 8(1): 49-63.
  • Coskun, Y., Seven, U., Ertugrul, H. M., and Alp, A. (2020) “Housing Price Dynamics and Bubble Risk: The Case of Turkey”, Housing Studies, 35(1): 50-86.
  • Çetin, A. C. (2021) “Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatlarına Etki Eden Faktörlerin Analizi”, Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Uygulamalı Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1): 1-30.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) “Distributions of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427–431.
  • Durkaya, M. and Yamak, R. (2004) “Türkiye’de Konut Piyasasının Talep Yönlü Analizi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 19(2017): 75-87.
  • Erdem, H. F. and Yamak, N. (2018) The Long-Run Relationship between Hedonic House Prices and Consumer Prices: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach” Terzioğlu, K and Dal, S. (eds.), Econometrics: Methods & Applications, Ankara, Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Eryüzlü, H., and Ekici, S. (2020) “Konut Fiyat Endeksi ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(12): 97-105.
  • Gebesoglu, P. F. (2019) “Housing Price Index Dynamics in Turkey”, Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 14: 100-107. INTES (2024). Türkiye İnşaat Sanayicileri İşveren Sendikası İnşaat Sanayi Dergisi, 187, https://intes.org.tr/dergi/insaat-sanayi-dergisi-ocak-subat-mart-nisan-sayi-187/ (25.07.2024)
  • İslamoğlu, B., and Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2019) “Inflation and Housing Prices: A Panel Data Analysis for Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir”, Research Journal of Politics, Economics and Management, 7(1): 93-99.
  • Karadaş, H. A., and Salihoğlu, E. (2020) “Seçili Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 16(1): 63-80.
  • Karamelikli, H. (2016) “Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Housing Price in Turkey”, Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo, (46): 81-98.
  • Katrakilidis, C., and Trachanas, E. (2012) “What Drives Housing Price Dynamics in Greece: New Evidence from Asymmetric ARDL Cointegration”, Economic Modelling, 29(4): 1064-1069.
  • Korkmaz, Ö. (2019) “The Relationship Between Housing Prices and Inflation Rate in Turkey: Evidence from Panel Konya Causality Test”, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 13(3): 427-452.
  • Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. C. (2004) “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Appalachian State University Working Papers 04(17): 1-15.
  • Mohan, S., Hutson, A., MacDonald, I., and Lin, C. C. (2019) “Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Housing Prices”, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 12(6): 1055-1071.
  • Paksoy, S., Yöntem, T. and Büyükçelebi, B. (2014) “Konut Fiyat Endeksi ve Enflasyon Arasındaki Ilişki (TRC1, TRC2 Ve TRC3 Düzey Bölgeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma)”, ASSAM Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi, (2): 54-69.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289-326.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988) “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75(2): 335.
  • Pillaiyan, S. (2015) “Macroeconomic Drivers of House Prices in Malaysia”, Canadian Social Science, 11(9): 119-130.
  • Raza, A., Asif, L., Türsoy, T., Seraj, M., and Bayram, G. E. (2023) “Macro-economic Indicators and Housing Price Index in Spain: Fresh Evidence from FMOLS and DOLS”, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, (ahead-of-print).
  • Sağlam, C., and Abdioğlu, Z. (2020) “Türkiye’de Tüketici Fiyatları ile Hedonik Konut Fiyatları Arasındaki Ilişki: Panel Veri Analizi”, Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 15(57): 117-128.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B., and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014) “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in A Nonlinear ARDL Framework”, Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 281-314.
  • Shinwar, A. and Özdemir, D. (2022) “Türkiye'de Sanayi Üretim ve Tüketici Fiyat Endeksinin Konut Fiyat Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Analizi”, Çukurova Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 26(1), 61-81.
  • Tan, C.-T., Lee, C.-Y., Tan, Y.-T., and Keh, C.-G. (2018) “A nonlinear ARDL Analysis on The Relation between Housing Price and Interest Rate: The Case of Malaysia”, Journal of Islamic, Social, Economics and Development, 3(14): 109-121.
  • TCMB (2024). Konut Fiyat Endeksi, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/b4628fa9-11a7-4426-aee6-dae67fc56200/KFE-Metaveri.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-b4628fa9-11a7-4426-aee6-dae67fc56200-oVgn2P6 (29.07.2024)
  • Van Hoang, T. H., Lahiani, A., and Heller, D. (2016) “Is Gold a Hedge Against Inflation? New Evidence from A Nonlinear ARDL Approach”, Economic Modelling, 54: 54-66.
  • Wang, Y., Wang, S., Li, G., Zhang, H., Jin, L., Su, Y., and Wu, K. (2017) “Identifying the Determinants of Housing Prices in China Using Spatial Regression and The Geographical Detector Technique”, Applied Geography, 79: 26-36.
  • Yıldız Contuk, F. (2021) “Konut Fiyatları Tüketici Güvenini Etkiler Mi?”, İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(4), 3016-3025.
  • Zandi, G., Mahadevan, A., Supramaniam, L., Aslam, A., and Theng, L. K. (2015) “The Economical Factors Affecting Residential Property Price: The Case of Penang Island”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(12).
  • Zeren, F. and Ergüzel, O. Ş. (2015), “Testing for Bubbles in The Housing Market: Further Evidence from Turkey”, Financial Studies, 19(1), 40-52.
  • Zietz, J., Zietz, E. N., and Sirmans, G. S. (2008), “Determinants of House Prices: A Quantile Regression Approach”, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 37: 317-333.

DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS

Year 2024, Volume: 22 Issue: 4, 242 - 261

Ayşegül Şahin

https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1529613

Abstract

The study aims to examine the effects of the industrial production index, consumer price index, consumer confidence index, real effective exchange rate, and loan interest rate variables on the housing price index. Monthly data between 2010:01-2024:05 is used in the study and the NARDL method is used. When the long-term coefficients are examined; it is seen that positive shocks in the industrial production index have a positive effect on the housing price index and negative shocks have a negative effect on the housing price index. It is seen that positive changes in the consumer price index have a positive effect on the housing price index and negative changes have a negative effect. Increases in the consumer confidence index have a positive effect on the housing price index. An increase in the real effective exchange rate causes a decrease in the housing price index in the long term. Finally, both positive and negative changes in housing loan interest rates increase the housing price index.

Keywords

Housing price determinants Nonlinear ARDL Housing price

References

  • Abasimi, I., Aulia, A. R., and Khasanah, U. (2023) “Analysis of House Price Determination in 13 G20 Countries: Random Effect Model”, Journal of Asset Management and Public Economy, 2(2): 65-81.
  • Adams, Z., and Füss, R. (2010) “Macroeconomic Determinants of International Housing Markets”, Journal of Housing Economics, 19(1): 38-50.
  • Akpolat, A. G. (2022) “The Asymmetric Effects of Real Variables on Real Housing Prices: A Nonlinear ARDL Analysis for Turkey”, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 17(3): 565-590.
  • Akkaş, M. E. and Sayilgan, G. (2015) “Housing Prices and Mortgage Interest Rate: Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test”, Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting, 2(4): 572-583.
  • Akyol Özcan, K. (2023) “Konut Fiyat Endeksi Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Araştırma: Asimetrik Eş Bütünleşme Analizi”, EKEV Akademi Dergisi, 93: 283-307.
  • Aydın, R., Aydın, B., and Lögün, A. (2021) “Konut Fiyat Endeksini Etkileyen Faktörler: TR72 Bölgesi Örneği”, 5. Uluslararası Erciyes Bilimsel Araştırmalar Kongresi, 335-344.
  • Aydın, S. (2023). “Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatları ile Makroekonomik Göstergeler Arasında Nedensellik Ilişkisinin Belirlenmesine Yönelik Analiz”, Turkish Business Journal, 4(8): 83-100.
  • Badurlar, İ. Ö. (2008). “Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatları ile Makro Ekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki Ilişkinin Araştırılması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1): 223-238.
  • Özcan, G., and Başaran Tormuş, N. (2018). Konut Fiyat Endeksi ve Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Uluslararası Politik, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Kongresi, 2, 505-514.
  • Canbay, Ş., and Kırca, M. (2020) “Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Relationships between Housıng Loan Interest Rates and Housıng Sales in Turkey”, Academic Studies in Social, Human and Administrative Sciences- II, 52-62.
  • Capozza, D. R., Hendershott, P. H., Mack, C., and Mayer, C. J. (2002) “Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics”, 2002 National Bureau of Economic Research NBER Working Paper No. 9262
  • Cohen, V., and Karpavičiūtė, L. (2017) “The Analysis of The Determinants of Housing Prices”, Independent Journal of Management & Production, 8(1): 49-63.
  • Coskun, Y., Seven, U., Ertugrul, H. M., and Alp, A. (2020) “Housing Price Dynamics and Bubble Risk: The Case of Turkey”, Housing Studies, 35(1): 50-86.
  • Çetin, A. C. (2021) “Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatlarına Etki Eden Faktörlerin Analizi”, Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Uygulamalı Bilimler Dergisi, 5(1): 1-30.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) “Distributions of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427–431.
  • Durkaya, M. and Yamak, R. (2004) “Türkiye’de Konut Piyasasının Talep Yönlü Analizi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 19(2017): 75-87.
  • Erdem, H. F. and Yamak, N. (2018) The Long-Run Relationship between Hedonic House Prices and Consumer Prices: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach” Terzioğlu, K and Dal, S. (eds.), Econometrics: Methods & Applications, Ankara, Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Eryüzlü, H., and Ekici, S. (2020) “Konut Fiyat Endeksi ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(12): 97-105.
  • Gebesoglu, P. F. (2019) “Housing Price Index Dynamics in Turkey”, Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 14: 100-107. INTES (2024). Türkiye İnşaat Sanayicileri İşveren Sendikası İnşaat Sanayi Dergisi, 187, https://intes.org.tr/dergi/insaat-sanayi-dergisi-ocak-subat-mart-nisan-sayi-187/ (25.07.2024)
  • İslamoğlu, B., and Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2019) “Inflation and Housing Prices: A Panel Data Analysis for Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir”, Research Journal of Politics, Economics and Management, 7(1): 93-99.
  • Karadaş, H. A., and Salihoğlu, E. (2020) “Seçili Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 16(1): 63-80.
  • Karamelikli, H. (2016) “Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Housing Price in Turkey”, Ekonomia. Rynek, Gospodarka, Społeczeństwo, (46): 81-98.
  • Katrakilidis, C., and Trachanas, E. (2012) “What Drives Housing Price Dynamics in Greece: New Evidence from Asymmetric ARDL Cointegration”, Economic Modelling, 29(4): 1064-1069.
  • Korkmaz, Ö. (2019) “The Relationship Between Housing Prices and Inflation Rate in Turkey: Evidence from Panel Konya Causality Test”, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 13(3): 427-452.
  • Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. C. (2004) “Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break”, Appalachian State University Working Papers 04(17): 1-15.
  • Mohan, S., Hutson, A., MacDonald, I., and Lin, C. C. (2019) “Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Housing Prices”, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 12(6): 1055-1071.
  • Paksoy, S., Yöntem, T. and Büyükçelebi, B. (2014) “Konut Fiyat Endeksi ve Enflasyon Arasındaki Ilişki (TRC1, TRC2 Ve TRC3 Düzey Bölgeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma)”, ASSAM Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi, (2): 54-69.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to The Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289-326.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988) “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75(2): 335.
  • Pillaiyan, S. (2015) “Macroeconomic Drivers of House Prices in Malaysia”, Canadian Social Science, 11(9): 119-130.
  • Raza, A., Asif, L., Türsoy, T., Seraj, M., and Bayram, G. E. (2023) “Macro-economic Indicators and Housing Price Index in Spain: Fresh Evidence from FMOLS and DOLS”, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, (ahead-of-print).
  • Sağlam, C., and Abdioğlu, Z. (2020) “Türkiye’de Tüketici Fiyatları ile Hedonik Konut Fiyatları Arasındaki Ilişki: Panel Veri Analizi”, Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 15(57): 117-128.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B., and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014) “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in A Nonlinear ARDL Framework”, Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 281-314.
  • Shinwar, A. and Özdemir, D. (2022) “Türkiye'de Sanayi Üretim ve Tüketici Fiyat Endeksinin Konut Fiyat Endeksi Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sınır Testi Analizi”, Çukurova Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 26(1), 61-81.
  • Tan, C.-T., Lee, C.-Y., Tan, Y.-T., and Keh, C.-G. (2018) “A nonlinear ARDL Analysis on The Relation between Housing Price and Interest Rate: The Case of Malaysia”, Journal of Islamic, Social, Economics and Development, 3(14): 109-121.
  • TCMB (2024). Konut Fiyat Endeksi, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/b4628fa9-11a7-4426-aee6-dae67fc56200/KFE-Metaveri.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-b4628fa9-11a7-4426-aee6-dae67fc56200-oVgn2P6 (29.07.2024)
  • Van Hoang, T. H., Lahiani, A., and Heller, D. (2016) “Is Gold a Hedge Against Inflation? New Evidence from A Nonlinear ARDL Approach”, Economic Modelling, 54: 54-66.
  • Wang, Y., Wang, S., Li, G., Zhang, H., Jin, L., Su, Y., and Wu, K. (2017) “Identifying the Determinants of Housing Prices in China Using Spatial Regression and The Geographical Detector Technique”, Applied Geography, 79: 26-36.
  • Yıldız Contuk, F. (2021) “Konut Fiyatları Tüketici Güvenini Etkiler Mi?”, İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(4), 3016-3025.
  • Zandi, G., Mahadevan, A., Supramaniam, L., Aslam, A., and Theng, L. K. (2015) “The Economical Factors Affecting Residential Property Price: The Case of Penang Island”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(12).
  • Zeren, F. and Ergüzel, O. Ş. (2015), “Testing for Bubbles in The Housing Market: Further Evidence from Turkey”, Financial Studies, 19(1), 40-52.
  • Zietz, J., Zietz, E. N., and Sirmans, G. S. (2008), “Determinants of House Prices: A Quantile Regression Approach”, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 37: 317-333.
There are 42 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Policy and Administration (Other)
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ayşegül Şahin 0000-0002-4278-0266

Early Pub Date December 26, 2024
Publication Date
Submission Date August 7, 2024
Acceptance Date November 30, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 22 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Şahin, A. (2024). DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 22(4), 242-261. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1529613
AMA Şahin A. DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. December 2024;22(4):242-261. doi:10.11611/yead.1529613
Chicago Şahin, Ayşegül. “DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS”. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 22, no. 4 (December 2024): 242-61. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1529613.
EndNote Şahin A (December 1, 2024) DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 22 4 242–261.
IEEE A. Şahin, “DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 242–261, 2024, doi: 10.11611/yead.1529613.
ISNAD Şahin, Ayşegül. “DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS”. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 22/4 (December 2024), 242-261. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1529613.
JAMA Şahin A. DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2024;22:242–261.
MLA Şahin, Ayşegül. “DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS”. Yönetim Ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 22, no. 4, 2024, pp. 242-61, doi:10.11611/yead.1529613.
Vancouver Şahin A. DRIVING FORCES OF HOUSING PRICES IN TÜRKİYE: A NONLINEAR ARDL ANALYSIS. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2024;22(4):242-61.