Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi 1302-0064 2458-8253 Manisa Celal Bayar University 10.18657/yonveek.1441935 Time-Series Analysis Microeconomics (Other) Zaman Serileri Analizi Mikro İktisat (Diğer) The Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty, Tourism Receipts and The Exchange Rate: The Case of Turkiye Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği, Turizm Gelirleri ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4425-7479 Nazlıoğlu Elif Hilal PAMUKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ, DENİZLİ SOSYAL BİLİMLER MESLEK YÜKSEKOKULU 09 27 2024 31 3 477 490 02 23 2024 09 13 2024 Copyright © 1995, Journal of Management and Economics 1995 Journal of Management and Economics

An important research question that has received much attention in recent years is the impact of global uncertainties on economic and financial indicators. Turkiye, which is a very appropriate example for the empirical analysis of the economic impact of uncertainty indicators, as it is designing policies to develop the tourism sector and make tourism receipts sustainable, has a fragile economy and is an emerging market economy. This study aims to examine the impact of global economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates on tourism receipts. In this regard, time series causality and cointegration analyses were conducted using monthly data for the period January 2012-September 2022. Cointegration analysis shows that in the long run, increases in global economic policy uncertainty reduce tourism receipts in Turkiye, while exchange rate appreciation increases tourism receipts. Causality analysis indicated that there was no information transfer between variables in the short run. These findings provide evidence that long-term policies to improve Turkiye's tourism infrastructure should take into account both global uncertainty and exchange rate dynamics.Key Words: Economic Uncertainty, Tourism Receipts, Exchange Rate, Cointegration, CausalityJEL Classification: D89, F31, Z30

Küresel belirsizliklerin ekonomik ve finansal göstergeler üzerindeki etkisi son yıllarda üzerine odaklanılan önemli bir araştırma sorusudur. Turizm sektörünü geliştirmek, turizm gelirlerini sürekli hale getirmek için politikalar tasarlayan, ekonomisi kırılgan bir yapıya sahip olan ve yükselen piyasa ekonomisi özelliği gösteren Türkiye, belirsizlik göstergelerinin ekonomik etkilerinin ampirik analizine oldukça uygun bir örnektir. Bu çalışma, küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve döviz kurunun turizm gelirleri üzerindeki etkilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, Ocak 2012-Eylül 2022 dönemi aylık veriler kullanılarak, zaman serisi nedensellik ve eş bütünleşme analizleri yapılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizi, uzun dönemde küresel ekonomi politikası belirsizliğindeki artışın Türkiye’de turizm gelirlerini azalttığını, döviz kurundaki artışın turizm gelirlerini artırdığını göstermektedir. Nedensellik analizi, kısa dönemde değişkenler arasında bilgi transferi olmadığını işaret etmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye turizm altyapısını geliştirmek amacıyla tasarlanan uzun vadeli politikaların hem küresel belirsizlik hem de kurları etkileyen dinamikleri dikkate alması gerekliliği yönünde kanıtlar içermektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği, Turizm Geliri, Döviz Kuru, Eşbütünleşme, NedensellikJEL Sınıflandırması: D89, F31, Z30

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