Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi 1302-0064 2458-8253 Manisa Celal Bayar University 10.18657/yonveek.457473 Göçmen Gönderilerinin Dış Ticaret Dengesi Üzerine Etkisi: Seçilmiş BDT Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir İnceleme Uysal Doğan MANİSA CELÂL BAYAR ÜNİVERSİTESİ Özşahin Şerife Necmettin Erbakan Üniversitesi Üçler Gülbahar Kırşehir Ahi Evran Üniversitesi 12 28 2018 25 3 695 712 09 05 2018 12 13 2018 Copyright © 1995, Journal of Management and Economics 1995 Journal of Management and Economics

Çalışmakamacıyla gittiği ülkede bir yıldan daha uzun süre kalan göçmenlerin anavatanlarındakiailelerine gönderdikleri para olarak tanımlanan göçmen havaleleri, gelişmekteolan ülkelerin önemli sermaye kaynaklarından biridir. IMF Ödemeler Dengesi veUluslararası Yatırım Pozisyonu Klavuzu’nda (BPM6) “çalışanlara tazminat vekişisel tasarruflar” olmak üzere iki ana bileşene ayrılan göçmen havalelerininhacmi, 2000’li yıllarla birlikte ciddi artış kaydetmiştir. Göçmen gönderileri;doğrudan yabancı yatırım, dış borçlanma veya dış yardımlara kıyasla dahaistikrarlı bir yapıya sahip olmasından dolayı özellikle kronik dış açık sorunuyaşayan ülkelerin bu açığı finansmanında güvenilir bir kaynak olarak kabuledilmektedir. 2015 yılı Dünya Bankası verilerine göre, dünya genelindeki yaklaşık600 milyar $ göçmen gönderisinin yaklaşık %75’i gelişmekte olan ülkelere doğruakmaktadır. En fazla göçmen gönderisi alan ülkeler Hindistan, Çin, Filipinlerve Meksika iken göçmen gönderilerinin GSYİH içindeki payı dikkate alındığında Kırgızistan,Nepal, Tacikistan ve Moldova gibi küçük ve yoksul ülkeler ilk sıralarayerleşmektedir. Buçalışma göçmen gönderilerinin dış ticaret dengesi üzerine etkisini ileri panelveri analiz teknikleri ile incelemekte ve ilgili literatüre ampirik açıdankatkı sağlamayı hedeflemektedir. Çalışma kapsamında Bağımsız DevletlerTopluluğu üyesi 6 ülkenin 2002-2016 dönemi verileri kullanılarak dış ticaretaçıklarının finansmanında göçmen havalelerinin etkisi araştırılmıştır. İncelenenzaman dilimi ve ülke seçimi, verilerin kesintisiz olması ve erişilebilirliğidikkate alınarak belirlenmiştir. Bu doğrultuda öncelikle panelde yer alanülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığının varlığı araştırılmış ve yapılananaliz ile paneli oluşturan ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımsızlığı olduğutespit edilmiştir. Bu bulguya dayanarak değişkenlerin durağanlık analizi ve uzundönem katsayı tahmininde birinci nesil yöntemler kullanılmıştır. Pesaran, Shinve Smith (1999) PMG (Pooled Mean Group) tahmincisi ile ulaşılan uzun dönemkatsayılar göçmen gönderilerinin dış ticaret dengesini Azerbaycan’da pozitif, Moldovave Tacikistan’da negatif yönde etkileyen anlamlı bir değişken olduğunugöstermiştir

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