Estimation of Measured Global Solar Radiation by Artificial Neural Networks for Mersin / Turkey and Comparison with Common Solar Radiation Models

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 80 - 96, 24.03.2019

Gökhan Arslan Burhan Bayhan Kaan Yaman

https://doi.org/10.29109/gujsc.419473

Cited By: 6

Öz

In
this study, the daily total global solar radiation values measured for Mersin
between April 2017 and March 2018 were modeled using artificial neural networks
and the performance of estimating daily total global solar radiation values of
the common models in the literature was investigated. Daily average air
temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, and cloud cover
data are obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and solar
radiation values are measured with a pyranometer. As a result, Model 37 (Yaman
ve Arslan) showed the best prediction performance among the models examined,
with the coefficient of determination (R²) being 0.83. the
coefficient of determination (R²) was obtained 0.75 for artificial
neural network that use dry bulb temperature, relative humidity and wind speed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

global solar radiation, artificial neural network, Mersin

Mersin / Türkiye için Ölçülen Global Güneş Işınımının Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Tahmin Edilmesi ve Yaygın Işınım Modelleri ile Karşılaştırılması

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Nisan
2017 – Mart 2018 tarihleri aralığında Mersin için ölçülen günlük toplam global
güneş ışınım değerlerinin yapay sinir ağı kullanılarak modellenmesi yapılmıştır
ve literatürde bulunan yaygın modellerin günlük toplam global güneş ışınım değerlerini
tahmin etme performansları incelenmiştir. Günlük ortalama hava sıcaklığı, bağıl
nem, rüzgar hızı, güneşlenme süresi ve bulut kapalılığı verileri, Devlet
Meteoroloji İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü’nden temin edilmiş olup güneş ışnım
değerleri ise piranometre ile ölçülmüştür. Sonuç olarak, incelenen modeller
içerisinde en iyi tahmin performansını belirlilik katsayısı (R²)
0,83 olan Model 37 (Yaman ve Arslan) göstermiştir. Kuru termometre sıcaklığı,
bağıl nem ve rüzgar hızına bağlı güneş ışınımını tahmin eden yapa sinir ağının
belirlilik katsayısı (R²) 0,75 olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Global güneş ışınımı, yapay sinir ağı, Mersin

Kaynakça

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