Year 2012, Volume 11, Issue 1, Pages 263 - 292 2012-06-01

TCMB’nin Döviz Kuruna Müdahalesinin Nedenleri ve Sonuçları
Causes and Results of Exchange Rate Intervention Under Inflation Targeting

Bora Suslu [1]

365 1361

Son zamanlarda, merkez bankalarının enflasyon hedeflemesi altında, kurlara yaptıkları müdahalelerin etkinlikleri iktisat yazınında sıkça tartışılmaktadır. Enflasyon hedeflemesi altında kurlara müdahalenin etkinliği üç açıdan incelenmektedir. Bunlar; iktisadi birimlerin beklentileri ve kurların varyansı, rezerv biriktirme ve sterilizasyon maliyeti üzerindeki etkileridir. TCMB 2003 yılından itibaren kurlara gerek dolaylı yöntem olan ihale yöntemi gerekse doğrudan satın alma yöntemi ile müdahale etmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı söz konusu üç açıdan TCMB’nin döviz müdahalelerini ve sonuçlarını araştırmaktır. Logit analizi sonucunda TCMB’nin enflasyon hedeflemesi altında kurlara iktisadi birimlerin beklentilerini etkilemek ve kurun varyansını minimize etmek için müdahale ettiği bulunurken, bu müdahalesi sonucunda; kurun varyansı artmış ve rezerv biriktirme adına sterilizasyon maliyetleri yükselmiştir. Bu doğrultuda, TCMB’nin kura alım yönündeki müdahalesinin sonucu sadece rezerv biriktirmek olmuştur
Under inflation targeting, central banks exchange rate interventions are discussed frequently in the economic literature recently. Effectiveness of intervention in exchange rate under inflation targeting are examined from three perspectives. These are expectations of the actors and the impact on the variance, reserve accumulation and the cost of sterilization. Since 2003 the Central Bank of Turkey has intervened exchange rate with both direct and indirect methods. The purpose of this study is to examine the results of these three aspects of the CBRT and the foreign exchange interventions. We found that by logit analysis under the inflation targeting of CBRT as a result of the intervention of exchange rate is effect expectations of economic unit and reduce of exchange rate the variance; after thes intervention the variance of exchange rate and cost of sterilization are increased. In this respect, the effectiveness of the intervention of the Central Bank exchange rate market is only reserve accumulation
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  • Ek 1: Logit Modelinin Tanımlayıcı İstatistikleri ve Sınıflandırma Tablosu
  • Tanımlayıcı İstatistikler R2McF,
  • LR istatistik (6 df)
  • Olasılık(LR istatistik)
  • Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) İstatistik (Olasılık) 0,77 88,20 0,0000 1,9303380 (0,9837)
  • Logit Modeli İçin Sınıflandırma Tablosu
  • Dep=0 Dep=1 Total 22.97 4.03 27.00 69.00 96.00 94.35 91.74 79.90 79.57 Percent Gain 79.23
Other ID JA33AZ77KZ
Journal Section Article
Authors

Author: Bora Suslu
Institution: ?

Dates

Publication Date: June 1, 2012

APA Suslu, B . (2012). Causes and Results of Exchange Rate Intervention Under Inflation Targeting. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 11 (1), 263-292. Retrieved from http://dergipark.org.tr/jss/issue/24240/256973