Relation of Economic Growth and Inflation in Turkey

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 171 - 184, 10.07.2019

Şahin Karabulut

https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.472412

Cited By: 11

Öz

It is
one of the most important macroeconomic objectives of ensuring the country's
economic growth. However, these policies can sometimes lead to deterioration in
some elements of the economy. For this reason, the relationship between
economic growth and inflation is indicative of economic policy. In this
respect, the relationship between economic growth and inflation in Turkey is
examined for the period 2003:Q1-2018:Q1. As a result of the Granger causality
test, it is concluded that GDP is the cause of inflation at a level of 5
percent significance, but a causality relationship from inflation to GDP has
not been established. On the other hand, as a result of the unit root test, it
is determined that the levels of GDP and inflation series are not stable and become
stable when the first difference is taken. Regression results made with
non-stationary variables can lead to spurious regression. For this reason,
cointegration analysis was performed between the variables, but it has not been
observed to any cointegration. This reveals that there is no long-term
relationship between GDP and inflation and the series act independently of each
other in the long-term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Inflation, Granger Causality

Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Enflasyon İlişkisi

Öz

Ülkelerin en önemli
makroekonomik hedeflerinden birisi olan ekonomik büyümenin sağlanması için
uygulanan politikalar ekonomideki bazı unsurlarda zaman zaman bozulmalara yol
açabilmektedir. Bu nedenle ekonomik büyüme ile enflasyon arasında bir ilişki
olup olmadığı uygulanacak ekonomi politikaları açısından yol gösterici
olacaktır. Bu amaçla çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için 2003:Q1-2018:Q1
döneminde ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir.
Yapılan Granger nedensellik testi sonucunda yüzde 5 anlamlılık seviyesinde
GSYİH’nın enflasyonun nedeni olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmış ancak enflasyondan
GSYİH’ya doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir. Diğer yandan,
yapılan birim kök testi sonucunda GSYİH ve enflasyona ait serilerin düzey değerlerinde
durağan olmadıkları ve birinci dereceden farkı alındığında durağan hale
geldikleri tespit edilmiştir. Durağan olmayan serilerle yapılan regresyon
sonuçlarının sahte regresyona yol açması muhtemel olduğundan dolayı değişkenler
arasında eşbütünleşme analizi yapılmış ancak herhangi bir eşbütünleşmeye
rastlanılmamıştır. Bu da GSYİH ve
enflasyon arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olmadığını ve serilerin uzun
dönemde birbirinden bağımsız hareket ettiğini ortaya koymuştur.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Enflasyon, Granger Nedensellik

Kaynakça

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