Year 2018, Volume 7, Issue 1, Pages 126 - 130 2018-09-01

A LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY APPLICATION ON THE TURKISH INTRADAY ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING

Hakan Yorulmus [1] , Umut Ugurlu [2] , Oktay Tas [3]

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Purpose- This paper aims to forecast the Turkish intraday electricity prices accurately. It will be the first intraday electricity price forecasting work, which uses Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) application.

Methodology- LSTM method is based on a special kind of neural network, which is capable of learning long-term dependencies. This paper aims to achieve the best forecasts, in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), by applying the LSTM model with multistep-ahead prediction approach.

Findings- LSTM model created in this study performed better with lagged values, electricity consumption and electricity production values. Especially using the lagged values of the prices and the reserve margin gave successful results.

Conclusion- The proposed method has improvement in the accuracy of forecasting. Turkish Intraday Electricity Market needs further research with time series methods as well as other neural network models

Electricity price forecasting, Turkish intraday electricity market, LSTM, multistep-ahead prediction, deep learning, time series
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Primary Language en
Subjects Humanities, Multidisciplinary
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0002-8019-5308
Author: Hakan Yorulmus (Primary Author)

Orcid: 0000-0002-6183-969X
Author: Umut Ugurlu

Orcid: 0000-0002-7570-549X
Author: Oktay Tas

Bibtex @research article { pap458480, journal = {PressAcademia Procedia}, issn = {}, eissn = {2459-0762}, address = {PressAcademia}, year = {2018}, volume = {7}, pages = {126 - 130}, doi = {10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.867}, title = {A LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY APPLICATION ON THE TURKISH INTRADAY ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING}, key = {cite}, author = {Yorulmus, Hakan and Ugurlu, Umut and Tas, Oktay} }
APA Yorulmus, H , Ugurlu, U , Tas, O . (2018). A LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY APPLICATION ON THE TURKISH INTRADAY ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING. PressAcademia Procedia, 7 (1), 126-130. DOI: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.867
MLA Yorulmus, H , Ugurlu, U , Tas, O . "A LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY APPLICATION ON THE TURKISH INTRADAY ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING". PressAcademia Procedia 7 (2018): 126-130 <http://dergipark.org.tr/pap/issue/39064/458480>
Chicago Yorulmus, H , Ugurlu, U , Tas, O . "A LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY APPLICATION ON THE TURKISH INTRADAY ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING". PressAcademia Procedia 7 (2018): 126-130
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - A LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY APPLICATION ON THE TURKISH INTRADAY ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING AU - Hakan Yorulmus , Umut Ugurlu , Oktay Tas Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - doi: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.867 DO - 10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.867 T2 - PressAcademia Procedia JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 126 EP - 130 VL - 7 IS - 1 SN - -2459-0762 M3 - doi: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.867 UR - https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.867 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 PressAcademia Procedia A LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY APPLICATION ON THE TURKISH INTRADAY ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING %A Hakan Yorulmus , Umut Ugurlu , Oktay Tas %T A LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY APPLICATION ON THE TURKISH INTRADAY ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING %D 2018 %J PressAcademia Procedia %P -2459-0762 %V 7 %N 1 %R doi: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.867 %U 10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.867
ISNAD Yorulmus, Hakan , Ugurlu, Umut , Tas, Oktay . "A LONG SHORT TERM MEMORY APPLICATION ON THE TURKISH INTRADAY ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECASTING". PressAcademia Procedia 7 / 1 (September 2018): 126-130. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.867