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Factors Influencing The Household Relative Poverty In Turkey: Logistic Regression Analysis

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 43, 11 - 32, 25.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.01

Öz

This study investigates the factors that determine the relative household poverty which prevents the growth of social welfare in Turkey. For this purpose, Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) (2017) Income and Living Conditions micro dataset were used. The poverty line is calculated by using 60% of household median income. In the binary logistic regression analysis, dependent variable was considered as poor and non-poor according to poverty line. Household demographic characteristics, labour market conditions and geographical characteristics are employed as explanatory variables. The estimation results indicate that education, age, formal employment, employment in industry sector decreases relative household poverty. On the contrary unemployment, causal employee, marriage and size of the household increase the risk of household poverty.

Kaynakça

  • Achia T. & A. Wangombe & N. Khadioli (2010), “A logistic regression model to identify key determinants of poverty using demographic and health survey data”, European Journal of Social Sciences, 13(1), 38-45.
  • Afera, N. (2015), “Determinants of Poverty in Rural Tigray: Ethiopia Evidence from Rural Households of Gulomekeda Wereda. Journal of Poverty”, Investment and Development, 10, 95– 102.
  • Amjad, R. & A. R. Kemal (1997), “Macroeconomic Policies and their Impact on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, 36(1), 39-68.
  • Apaydın, F. (2018), “Türkiye’de İşsizliğin Karakteristiklerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(30), 159-200.
  • Ayalneh, B. & K. Hagedorn & B. Korf (2008), Analysis of poverty and its covariates among small holder farmers in eastern Hararghe highlands of Ethiopia Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 44 (2005), No. 2; DLG-Verlag Frankfurt.
  • Biyase, M. & T. Zwane (2015), “An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of poverty and household welfare in South Africa”, MPRA.
  • Buvinic, M. & G. R. Gupta (1997), “Female-headed Households and female-maintained families: are they worth targeting to reduce poverty in developing countries?”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 45(2) , 259–280.
  • Cafri, R. (2009) Adana İlinde Yoksulluğun Analizi: Sınırlı Bağımlı Değişkenli Modellerle Bir İnceleme, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Adana.
  • Chaudhry, I. S. (2009), “Poverty Alleviation in Southern Punjab (Pakistan): An Empirical Evidence from the Project Area of Asian Development Bank”, International Research journal of Finance and Economics, 23.
  • Chaudhry, I. S. & S. U. Rahman (2009), “The Impact of Gender Inequality in Education on Rural Poverty in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis”, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 15, 174-188.
  • Cook, A. H. & V. R. Lorwin & A. K. Daniels (1984), Women and Trade Unions in Eleven Industrialized Countries. Philadelphia: Temple University Press.
  • Dal, S. (2013) Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Yoksulluğunu Belirleyen Etmenler, (Basılmamış yüksek lisans tezi), Gazi Üniversitesi /Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Datt, G. & D. Jolliffe (1999), “Determinants of Poverty in Egypt 1997”, FCND Discussion Paper No. 75.
  • Epo, B. N. (2010), “Determinants of Poverty in Cameroon: A Binomial and Polychotomous Logit Analysis”, SSRN.
  • Geda, A. & N. De Jong & M. S. Kimenyi & G. Mwabu (2005), “Determinants of poverty in Kenya: A household level analysis” (Working Paper No. 2005-44). Storrs, CT: University of Connecticut, Department of Economics Working Paper Series.
  • Hasmi, A. A. & M. Hasmi & M. Sial (2008), “Trends and Determinants of Rural Poverty: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Selected Districts of Punjab”, Pakistan Development Review, 47(4), 909-923.
  • Herrera, J. (1999), “Ajuste econo´mico, desigualdad y movilidad”, in: R. Webb & M. Ventocilla (Eds) Pobreza y economıa social. Analisis de una encuesta (ENNIV-1997), pp. 101–142 (Lima: USAID, Instituto Cuanto, UNICEF).
  • Işığıçok, Ö. (2011) İstihdam ve İşsizlik, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
  • Jayamohan, M. K. & A. T. Kitesa (2014), “Gender and Poverty- an analysis of urban poverty in Ethiopia”, Development Studies Research. An Open Access Journal, 1(1), 233-243.
  • Kızılgöl, Ö. (2009), Türkiye’de Yoksulluk Sorunu: Ekonometrik Bir Bakış, (Yayımlanmış Doktora Tezi), Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İzmir.
  • Karaalp-Orhan, H. S. (2016), “Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasının Yapısal Özellikleri: İstihdam, İşsizlik ve İşgücüne Katılma Oranı”, Sevcan Güneş ve Hacer Simay Karaalp-Orhan (Ed.), Türkiye Ekonomisi ve Güncel Makroekonomik Konular içinde (s. 1-44). Ankara: Akademik Yayıncılık.
  • Karaalp-Orhan, H. S. (2017). What are the Trends in Women’s Labour Force Participation in Turkey?, European Journal of Sustainable Development, 6(3), 303-312.
  • Kumaş, H. & A. Çağlar & H. S. Karaalp-Orhan (2014), “Firm Size and Labour Market Segmentation Theory: Evidence from Turkish Micro Data”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 360-373.
  • Kumaş, H. & A. Çağlar (2017), “Tabakalı İşgücü Piyasası Teorisine Göre Türkiye’de Özel-Hizmet Sektöründe İstihdamın Kalitesi”, İş, Güç Endüstri İlişkileri ve İnsan Kaynakları Dergisi, 19(1), 49-86.
  • Lanjouw, P. & M. Ravallion (1995), “Poverty and Household Size”, Economic Journal 105, 1415-1434.
  • Lipton, M. & M. Ravallion (1995), “Poverty and Policy”, in Jere Behrman and T.N. Srinivasan (eds) Handbook of Development Economics Volume 3 Amsterdam: North, Holland.
  • Makame, I. H. & S. S. Mzee (2014), “Determinants of Poverty on Household Characteristics in Zanzibar: A Logistic Regression Model”, Developing Country Studies, 4(20), 188-195.
  • Masika, R. & A. De Haan & S. Baden (1997), “Urbanisation and Urban Poverty: A Gender Analysis”, Institute of Development Studies.
  • Mok, T. Y. & C. Gan & A. Sanyal (2007), “The Determinants of Urban Household Poverty in Malaysia”, Journal of Social Sciences, 3(4), 190-196.
  • Morrison, A. & F. Lamana (2006), Gender issues in the Kyrgyz labor market. Backgroun paper for Kyrgyz Poverty Assessment. Washington, D.C., World Bank.
  • Myftaraj, E. (2014), “Identifying Household Level Determinants of Poverty in Albania Using Logistic Regression Model”, OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development, 7(3), 35-42.
  • Öztürk, N. & Y. Öztürk (2010), Yoksullukla Mücadelede Sosyal Yardımlaşma ve Dayanışma Vakıfları, Palme Yayıncılık, 1. Baskı, Ankara.
  • Özveri, M. (30.12.2015), “Bordro Oyunları”, (Erişim Tarihi:10.01.2019), https://www.evrensel.net/yazi/75638/bordro-oyunlari
  • Rajaram, R. (2009), “Female-Headed Households and Poverty: Evidence from the National Family Health Survey. In: 3rd”, Southeastern International/Development Economics Workshop Agenda & Papers.
  • Ranatshunga, S. P. B. (2010), “The determinants of household poverty in Sri Lanka: 2006/2007”, MPRA.
  • Rodriguez, J. G. (2015), “The determinants of Poverty in the Mexican States of the US-Mexico Border”, Estudios Fronterizos, 17(33), 141-167.
  • Rupasingha, A. & S. J. Goetz (2007), “Social and Political Forces as Determinants of Poverty: A Spatial Analysis”, The Journal of Socio-Economics, 36, 650-671.
  • Sadiq, M. (2010), “Determinants of Poverty in Pakistan”, Hamburg Review of Social Sciences, 4(3), 193-2013.
  • Sarwar Awan, M. & N. Malik & H. Sarwar & M. Waqas (2011), “Impact of Education on Poverty Reduction”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 31826.
  • Sekhampu, T. J. (2012), “Poverty in a South African township: The case of Kwakwatsi”, African Journal of Business Management, 6(33), 9504-9509.
  • Smajic, S. & S. Ermacora (2007), “Poverty amongst Female-headed Households in Bosnia and Herzegovina: An empirical analysis”, South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 2(1), 69-88.
  • Spaho, A. (2014), “Determinants of Poverty in Albania”, Journal of Educational and Social Research, 4(2), 157-163.
  • Tunç, T. (2012), “A new hybrid method logistic regression and feedforward neural network for lung cancer data”, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 1-10.
  • TÜİK (2017), Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması.
  • TÜİK (2017) İşgücü İstatistikleri (Erişim Tarihi: 09.01.2019)
  • Widyanti, W. & A. Suryahadi & S. Sumarto & A. Athia Yumna (2009), “The Relationship between chronic poverty and household dynamics: Evidence from Indonesia”, SMERU Working Paper Series.
  • Woolard, I. & S. Klasen (2005), “Determinants of Income Mobility and Household Poverty Dynamics in South Africa”, Journal of Development Studies, 41(5), 865-897.
  • World Bank, Turkey Joint Poverty Assesment Report (Report No: 29619-TU), Human Development Sector Unit Europe and Central Asia Region, Document of the World Bank and the State Institute of Statistics Turkey 2005.

Türkiye'de Hanehalkı Göreli Yoksulluğunu Etkileyen Faktörler: Lojistik Regresyon Analizi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 43, 11 - 32, 25.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.01

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de toplumsal refah artışını engelleyen hanehalkı göreli yoksulluğunun, boyutları ve temel belirleyici faktörleri incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla analizde Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) (2017) yılı Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması mikro veri seti kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak hanehalkı medyan fert gelirinin %60’ına göre yoksulluk sınırı hesaplanmıştır. Bağımlı değişkenin yoksulluk sınırına göre yoksul ve yoksul olmayanlar olarak ele alındığı İkili Lojistik Regresyon analizinde, hanehalkı demografik özellikleri, işgücü piyasası ve coğrafi özellikleri içeren açıklayıcı değişkenler kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye’de eğitim düzeyi, yaş, Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumu’na kayıtlı olma ve sanayi sektöründeki istihdam yoksulluk riskini azaltırken işsizlik, yevmiyeli çalışma, evli olma ve hane büyüklüğü yoksulluk riskini artırmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Achia T. & A. Wangombe & N. Khadioli (2010), “A logistic regression model to identify key determinants of poverty using demographic and health survey data”, European Journal of Social Sciences, 13(1), 38-45.
  • Afera, N. (2015), “Determinants of Poverty in Rural Tigray: Ethiopia Evidence from Rural Households of Gulomekeda Wereda. Journal of Poverty”, Investment and Development, 10, 95– 102.
  • Amjad, R. & A. R. Kemal (1997), “Macroeconomic Policies and their Impact on Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, 36(1), 39-68.
  • Apaydın, F. (2018), “Türkiye’de İşsizliğin Karakteristiklerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi”, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 1(30), 159-200.
  • Ayalneh, B. & K. Hagedorn & B. Korf (2008), Analysis of poverty and its covariates among small holder farmers in eastern Hararghe highlands of Ethiopia Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 44 (2005), No. 2; DLG-Verlag Frankfurt.
  • Biyase, M. & T. Zwane (2015), “An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of poverty and household welfare in South Africa”, MPRA.
  • Buvinic, M. & G. R. Gupta (1997), “Female-headed Households and female-maintained families: are they worth targeting to reduce poverty in developing countries?”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 45(2) , 259–280.
  • Cafri, R. (2009) Adana İlinde Yoksulluğun Analizi: Sınırlı Bağımlı Değişkenli Modellerle Bir İnceleme, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Adana.
  • Chaudhry, I. S. (2009), “Poverty Alleviation in Southern Punjab (Pakistan): An Empirical Evidence from the Project Area of Asian Development Bank”, International Research journal of Finance and Economics, 23.
  • Chaudhry, I. S. & S. U. Rahman (2009), “The Impact of Gender Inequality in Education on Rural Poverty in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis”, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 15, 174-188.
  • Cook, A. H. & V. R. Lorwin & A. K. Daniels (1984), Women and Trade Unions in Eleven Industrialized Countries. Philadelphia: Temple University Press.
  • Dal, S. (2013) Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Yoksulluğunu Belirleyen Etmenler, (Basılmamış yüksek lisans tezi), Gazi Üniversitesi /Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Datt, G. & D. Jolliffe (1999), “Determinants of Poverty in Egypt 1997”, FCND Discussion Paper No. 75.
  • Epo, B. N. (2010), “Determinants of Poverty in Cameroon: A Binomial and Polychotomous Logit Analysis”, SSRN.
  • Geda, A. & N. De Jong & M. S. Kimenyi & G. Mwabu (2005), “Determinants of poverty in Kenya: A household level analysis” (Working Paper No. 2005-44). Storrs, CT: University of Connecticut, Department of Economics Working Paper Series.
  • Hasmi, A. A. & M. Hasmi & M. Sial (2008), “Trends and Determinants of Rural Poverty: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Selected Districts of Punjab”, Pakistan Development Review, 47(4), 909-923.
  • Herrera, J. (1999), “Ajuste econo´mico, desigualdad y movilidad”, in: R. Webb & M. Ventocilla (Eds) Pobreza y economıa social. Analisis de una encuesta (ENNIV-1997), pp. 101–142 (Lima: USAID, Instituto Cuanto, UNICEF).
  • Işığıçok, Ö. (2011) İstihdam ve İşsizlik, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
  • Jayamohan, M. K. & A. T. Kitesa (2014), “Gender and Poverty- an analysis of urban poverty in Ethiopia”, Development Studies Research. An Open Access Journal, 1(1), 233-243.
  • Kızılgöl, Ö. (2009), Türkiye’de Yoksulluk Sorunu: Ekonometrik Bir Bakış, (Yayımlanmış Doktora Tezi), Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İzmir.
  • Karaalp-Orhan, H. S. (2016), “Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasının Yapısal Özellikleri: İstihdam, İşsizlik ve İşgücüne Katılma Oranı”, Sevcan Güneş ve Hacer Simay Karaalp-Orhan (Ed.), Türkiye Ekonomisi ve Güncel Makroekonomik Konular içinde (s. 1-44). Ankara: Akademik Yayıncılık.
  • Karaalp-Orhan, H. S. (2017). What are the Trends in Women’s Labour Force Participation in Turkey?, European Journal of Sustainable Development, 6(3), 303-312.
  • Kumaş, H. & A. Çağlar & H. S. Karaalp-Orhan (2014), “Firm Size and Labour Market Segmentation Theory: Evidence from Turkish Micro Data”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 360-373.
  • Kumaş, H. & A. Çağlar (2017), “Tabakalı İşgücü Piyasası Teorisine Göre Türkiye’de Özel-Hizmet Sektöründe İstihdamın Kalitesi”, İş, Güç Endüstri İlişkileri ve İnsan Kaynakları Dergisi, 19(1), 49-86.
  • Lanjouw, P. & M. Ravallion (1995), “Poverty and Household Size”, Economic Journal 105, 1415-1434.
  • Lipton, M. & M. Ravallion (1995), “Poverty and Policy”, in Jere Behrman and T.N. Srinivasan (eds) Handbook of Development Economics Volume 3 Amsterdam: North, Holland.
  • Makame, I. H. & S. S. Mzee (2014), “Determinants of Poverty on Household Characteristics in Zanzibar: A Logistic Regression Model”, Developing Country Studies, 4(20), 188-195.
  • Masika, R. & A. De Haan & S. Baden (1997), “Urbanisation and Urban Poverty: A Gender Analysis”, Institute of Development Studies.
  • Mok, T. Y. & C. Gan & A. Sanyal (2007), “The Determinants of Urban Household Poverty in Malaysia”, Journal of Social Sciences, 3(4), 190-196.
  • Morrison, A. & F. Lamana (2006), Gender issues in the Kyrgyz labor market. Backgroun paper for Kyrgyz Poverty Assessment. Washington, D.C., World Bank.
  • Myftaraj, E. (2014), “Identifying Household Level Determinants of Poverty in Albania Using Logistic Regression Model”, OIDA International Journal of Sustainable Development, 7(3), 35-42.
  • Öztürk, N. & Y. Öztürk (2010), Yoksullukla Mücadelede Sosyal Yardımlaşma ve Dayanışma Vakıfları, Palme Yayıncılık, 1. Baskı, Ankara.
  • Özveri, M. (30.12.2015), “Bordro Oyunları”, (Erişim Tarihi:10.01.2019), https://www.evrensel.net/yazi/75638/bordro-oyunlari
  • Rajaram, R. (2009), “Female-Headed Households and Poverty: Evidence from the National Family Health Survey. In: 3rd”, Southeastern International/Development Economics Workshop Agenda & Papers.
  • Ranatshunga, S. P. B. (2010), “The determinants of household poverty in Sri Lanka: 2006/2007”, MPRA.
  • Rodriguez, J. G. (2015), “The determinants of Poverty in the Mexican States of the US-Mexico Border”, Estudios Fronterizos, 17(33), 141-167.
  • Rupasingha, A. & S. J. Goetz (2007), “Social and Political Forces as Determinants of Poverty: A Spatial Analysis”, The Journal of Socio-Economics, 36, 650-671.
  • Sadiq, M. (2010), “Determinants of Poverty in Pakistan”, Hamburg Review of Social Sciences, 4(3), 193-2013.
  • Sarwar Awan, M. & N. Malik & H. Sarwar & M. Waqas (2011), “Impact of Education on Poverty Reduction”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 31826.
  • Sekhampu, T. J. (2012), “Poverty in a South African township: The case of Kwakwatsi”, African Journal of Business Management, 6(33), 9504-9509.
  • Smajic, S. & S. Ermacora (2007), “Poverty amongst Female-headed Households in Bosnia and Herzegovina: An empirical analysis”, South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 2(1), 69-88.
  • Spaho, A. (2014), “Determinants of Poverty in Albania”, Journal of Educational and Social Research, 4(2), 157-163.
  • Tunç, T. (2012), “A new hybrid method logistic regression and feedforward neural network for lung cancer data”, Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 1-10.
  • TÜİK (2017), Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması.
  • TÜİK (2017) İşgücü İstatistikleri (Erişim Tarihi: 09.01.2019)
  • Widyanti, W. & A. Suryahadi & S. Sumarto & A. Athia Yumna (2009), “The Relationship between chronic poverty and household dynamics: Evidence from Indonesia”, SMERU Working Paper Series.
  • Woolard, I. & S. Klasen (2005), “Determinants of Income Mobility and Household Poverty Dynamics in South Africa”, Journal of Development Studies, 41(5), 865-897.
  • World Bank, Turkey Joint Poverty Assesment Report (Report No: 29619-TU), Human Development Sector Unit Europe and Central Asia Region, Document of the World Bank and the State Institute of Statistics Turkey 2005.
Toplam 48 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Nurgül Evcim 0000-0002-7584-7316

Sevcan Güneş 0000-0001-8367-8965

Hacer Simay Karaalp-orhan 0000-0001-9889-1494

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Ocak 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 4 Şubat 2019
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 28 Sayı: 43

Kaynak Göster

APA Evcim, N., Güneş, S., & Karaalp-orhan, H. S. (2020). Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Göreli Yoksulluğunu Etkileyen Faktörler: Lojistik Regresyon Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 28(43), 11-32. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.01
AMA Evcim N, Güneş S, Karaalp-orhan HS. Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Göreli Yoksulluğunu Etkileyen Faktörler: Lojistik Regresyon Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. Ocak 2020;28(43):11-32. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.01
Chicago Evcim, Nurgül, Sevcan Güneş, ve Hacer Simay Karaalp-orhan. “Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Göreli Yoksulluğunu Etkileyen Faktörler: Lojistik Regresyon Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi 28, sy. 43 (Ocak 2020): 11-32. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.01.
EndNote Evcim N, Güneş S, Karaalp-orhan HS (01 Ocak 2020) Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Göreli Yoksulluğunu Etkileyen Faktörler: Lojistik Regresyon Analizi. Sosyoekonomi 28 43 11–32.
IEEE N. Evcim, S. Güneş, ve H. S. Karaalp-orhan, “Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Göreli Yoksulluğunu Etkileyen Faktörler: Lojistik Regresyon Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, c. 28, sy. 43, ss. 11–32, 2020, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.01.
ISNAD Evcim, Nurgül vd. “Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Göreli Yoksulluğunu Etkileyen Faktörler: Lojistik Regresyon Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi 28/43 (Ocak 2020), 11-32. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.01.
JAMA Evcim N, Güneş S, Karaalp-orhan HS. Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Göreli Yoksulluğunu Etkileyen Faktörler: Lojistik Regresyon Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. 2020;28:11–32.
MLA Evcim, Nurgül vd. “Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Göreli Yoksulluğunu Etkileyen Faktörler: Lojistik Regresyon Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi, c. 28, sy. 43, 2020, ss. 11-32, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.01.01.
Vancouver Evcim N, Güneş S, Karaalp-orhan HS. Türkiye’de Hanehalkı Göreli Yoksulluğunu Etkileyen Faktörler: Lojistik Regresyon Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. 2020;28(43):11-32.