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CURRENT CHALLENGES AND TRENDS IN INTELLIGENCE

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 177 - 204, 12.05.2020
https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.736153

Öz

After a thorough examination of current intelligence literature, a variety of national security documents and respected news outlets, I find several current challenges in intelligence under different areas. I classify current major challenges in intelligence into four groups. These are technological, financial, organizational, and political. Technological challenges are the most important ones because other challenges are either related to it or a result of it. These are the expansion of using meta-data, the expansion of social media, and cybersecurity. The second current challenge in intelligence is financial. It is mostly about the use of cryptocurrencies. The third challenge is organizational. These are the impact on information revolution on intelligence organizations and competition with non-intelligence organizations. The last current challenge in intelligence is political. Political challenges are populist nationalist movements, ISIS returnees, and expansion of hybrid warfare. Related to current challenges in intelligence and the global security environment, there are eight current trends in intelligence. Five of them are mostly related to technological challenges, while three of them are related to political challenges. The trends that are related to technological challenges in intelligence are the foundation of cyber intelligence divisions/agencies, the change in recruitment policies, the rising importance of the security of cyberinfrastructure, privatization of intelligence, and increasing role of open-source intelligence. The trends that are related to political challenges in intelligence are the increasing focus on right-wing groups, the elimination of ISIS returnees, and the increasing role of intelligence in hybrid warfare/covert operations.

Kaynakça

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İSTİHBARATTA GÜNCEL ZORLUKLAR VE AKIMLAR

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 177 - 204, 12.05.2020
https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.736153

Öz

Bu çalışmada; mevcut istihbarat literatürü, çeşitli ulusal güvenlik dokümanları ve saygın haber kaynaklarının kapsamlı incelenmesi sonucu, istihbarat alanındaki farklı güncel zorluklar bulunmuştur. Güncel zorluklar dört farklı başlık altında incelenmiştir. Bu başlıklar “teknolojik, finansal, kurumsal ve siyasal zorluklar” olarak tanımlanmıştır. Diğer zorlukların ilintili veya sonucu sebebiyle olmasından dolayı teknolojik zorlukların en önemli grup olduğu savunulmuştur. Meta-veri ve sosyal medya kullanımının artması ve siber güvenlik teknolojik zorlukları oluşturmaktadır. İkinci güncel zorluk olarak finansal zorluk tanımlanmıştır ve bu alandaki sorunun büyük oranda kripto paraların kullanımı ile ilgili olduğu savunulmuştur. Üçüncü güncel zorluğun kurumsal olduğu belirtilmiş ve temelde bilgi devrimi ve ulus-dışı istihbarat kuruluşları ile yaşanan rekabetin bu zorluğu oluşturduğu savunulmuştur. Son güncel zorluk olarak popülist milliyetçi hareketler, IŞİD’in yenilmesi sonrası ülkelerine geri dönen üyeleri ve hibrit savaşın yaygınlaşmasının siyasal zorlukları oluşturduğu savunulmuştur. Bahsedilen güncel zorluklar ve küresel güvenlik parametreleri ışığında sekiz adet güncel istihbarat akımı olduğu belirtilmiştir. Bu akımların beş tanesi teknolojik zorluklar ile ilgili iken üç tanesi siyasal zorluklar ile ilgilidir. Teknolojik zorluklar ile ilgili olan güncel istihbarat akımları siber istihbarat birimlerinin kurulması, işe alım politikalarının değişmesi, siber altyapının artan önemi, istihbaratın özelleşmesi ve açık kaynak istihbaratının artan rolü olarak belirlenmiştir. Siyasal zorluklar ile ilgili olan akımlar ise milliyetçi gruplar üzerine yapılan istihbarat faaliyetlerinin artması, ülkelerine dönen/dönmekte IŞİD üyelerinin etkisiz hale getirilmesi ve istihbaratın hibrit savaş ve örtülü operasyonlarda rolünün artması olarak belirlenmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Baron, J., O’Mahony, A., Manheim, D., Dion-Schwarz, C. (2015). National security implications for virtual currency: Examining the potential for non-state actor deployment. RAND. Santa Monica, United States.
  • BBC. (July 19, 2016). Germany axe attack: assault on train in Wuerzburg injures HK family. Retrieved from. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36827725 Access: 14/11/19
  • Best Jr, R. A. (2014). Leadership of the US Intelligence Community: From DCI to DNI. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 27(2), 253-333.
  • BlackHawk Intelligence (2017). Metadata Analysis. Retrieved from. http://www.blackhawkintelligence.com/corporate-services/it-forensics/it-forensics/metadata-analysis/ Access: 13/11/19
  • Boardman, C. H. (2006). Organizational Culture Challenges to Interagency and Intelligence Community Communication and Interaction. National Defense University, Norfolk VA, Joint Advanced Warfighting School.
  • Bouzis, K. (2015). Countering the Islamic State: US counterterrorism measures. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 38(10), 885-897.
  • Brantly, A. F. (2018). When everything becomes intelligence: machine learning and the connected world. Intelligence and National Security, 33(4), 562-573.
  • Bruijn, H. D. (2006). One fight, one team: the 9/11 commission report on intelligence, fragmentation and information. Public Administration, 84(2), 267-287.
  • Bundesnachrichtendienst. Stellenanzeigen im Gehobenen Dienst. Retrieved from. http://www.bnd.bund.de/DE/Karriere/Stellenanzeigen/Gehobener_Dienst/Stellenanzeigen_node.html Access: 22/11/19
  • Central Intelligence Agency. (December 19, 2016). Cyber Operations Officer. Retrieved from. https://www.cia.gov/careers/opportunities/support-professional/cyber-operations-officer.html Access: 22/11/19
  • Central Intelligence Agency. (May 5, 2007). Science & Technology. Retrieved from. https://www.cia.gov/offices-of-cia/science-technology 22/11/19
  • Central Intelligence Agency. (October 1, 2015). Digital Innovation. Retrieved from. https://www.cia.gov/offices-of-cia/digital-innovation 22/11/19 Central Intelligence Agency. (September 21, 2009). Careers & Internships. Retrieved from. https://www.cia.gov/careers/opportunities/cia-jobs Access: 22/11/19
  • Chaffey, D. (April 27, 2017). Global social media research summary 2017. Smart Insights. Retrieved from. https://www.smartinsights.com/social-media-marketing/social-media-strategy/new-global-social-media-research/ Access: 14/11/19
  • Chesterman, S. (2008). We Can’t Spy … If We Can’t Buy!’: The Privatization of Intelligence and the Limits of Outsourcing ‘Inherently Governmental Functions. The European Journal of International Law, 19(5), 1055-1074.
  • CNN (October 17, 2017). ISIS Fast Facts. Retrieved from. http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/08/world/isis-fast-facts/index.html Access: 24/11/19
  • Committee on Homeland Security, U.S. House of Representatives. (May 2017). Terror Threat Snap Shot. Retrieved from. file:///C:/Users/Ahmet%20Ates/Downloads/nps84-050817-04.pdf Access: 14/11/19
  • Committee on Homeland Security, U.S. House of Representatives. (September 2015). Terror Threat Snap Shot. Retrieved from. https://homeland.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Complete-September-Terror-Threat-Snapshot.pdf Access: 14/11/19
  • Cozine, K. (2016). Social Media and the Globalization of the Sicarii. Global Security Studies, 7(1).
  • Cronin, A. K. (2015). ISIS is not a terrorist group: why counterterrorism won’t stop the latest jihadist threat. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/isis-not-terrorist-group Access: 24/11/19
  • Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration Center. Who we are. Retrieved from. https://www.dni.gov/index.php/ctiic-who-we-are Access: 22/11/19
  • Davies 1, P. H. (2004). Intelligence culture and intelligence failure in Britain and the United States. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 17(3), 495-520.
  • Davis, J. (October 10, 2011). The crypto-currency: bitcoin and its mysterious inventor. The New Yorker. Retrieved from. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/10/10/the-crypto-currency Access: 19/11/19
  • Degaut, M. (2016) Spies and Policymakers: Intelligence in the Information Age, Intelligence and National Security, 31(4), 509-531.
  • Denécé, E. (2014). The Revolution in Intelligence Affairs: 1989–2003. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 27(1), 27-41.
  • Deutsche Welle. (May 17, 2017). Reports: German intelligence recruited head of neo-Nazi group as informant. Retrieved from. http://www.dw.com/en/reports-german-intelligence-recruited-head-of-neo-nazi-group-as-informant/a-38866369 Access: 24/11/19
  • Dion-Schwarz, C., Manheim, D., & Johnston, P. B. (2019). Terrorist Use of Cryptocurrencies: Technical and Organizational Barriers and Future Threats. Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, United States.
  • Direction Générale de la Securite Exterieure. (October 10, 2017). Categorie B. Retrieved from. http://www.defense.gouv.fr/english/dgse/tout-le-site/categorie-b Access: 22/11/19
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  • Hastedt, G. (2010). The Politics of Intelligence Accountability. In The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence, Oxford University Press, 719-734.
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  • Jeffreys-Jones, R. (2010). The Rise and Fall of the CIA. In The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence. Oxford University Press, 122-137.
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  • Lahneman, W. J. (2010). The need for a new intelligence paradigm. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 23(2), 201-225.
  • Lederman, G. N. (2005). Restructuring the intelligence community. Peter Berkowitz: The Future of American Intelligence (Stanford: Hoover Institution Press, 2005), 65-102.
  • Levine, M. (September 27, 2017). FBI has 1,000 open investigations into violent white supremacy, domestic terror: Agency chief. ABC News. Retrieved from. http://abcnews.go.com/US/fbi-1000-open-investigations-violent-white-supremacy-domestic/story?id=50127366 Access: 24/11/19
  • Libo-on, A. (February 9, 2016). The growth of social media v 3.0. Search Engine Journal. Retrieved from. https://www.searchenginejournal.com/growth-social-media-v-3-0-infographic/155115/ Access: 14/11/19
  • Lim, K. (2016). Big Data and Strategic Intelligence, Intelligence and National Security, 31(4), 619-635. Lucas, E. (April 27, 2019). The Spycraft Revolution. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/27/the-spycraft-revolution-espionage-technology/ Access: 29/02/20
  • Madeira, V. (2003). ‘No Wishful Thinking Allowed’: Secret Service Committee and Intelligence Reform in Great Britain, 1919–23. Intelligence and National Security, 18(1), 1-20.
  • Marten, K. (2019). Russia’s use of semi-state security forces: the case of the Wagner Group. Post-Soviet Affairs, 35(3), 181-204.
  • Matey, G. D. (2013). The Use of Intelligence in the Private Sector, International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 26(2), 272-287.
  • Mattern, T., Felker, J., Borum, R., & Bamford, G. (2014). Operational levels of cyber intelligence. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 27(4), 702-719.
  • Mazurova, N. (2016). Russia’s Response to Terrorism. History and Implications for US Policy. American Security Project, 1-11.
  • McLaughlin, J. & Dorman, Z. (December 30, 2019). 'Shattered': Inside the secret battle to save America's undercover spies in the digital age. Yahoo News. Retrieved from. https://news.yahoo.com/shattered-inside-the-secret-battle-to-save-americas-undercover-spies-in-the-digital-age-100029026.html?soc_src=community&soc_trk=tw Access: 29/02/20
  • McNeil, P. P. (2008). The Evolution of the US Intelligence Community—An Historical Overview. In Intelligence and National Security: The Secret World of Spies: An Anthology, Oxford University Press, 5-20.
  • Milli Istihbarat Teskilati. Bilim ve Teknoloji Uzmani. Retrieved from. http://www.mit.gov.tr/iksayfasi/biltekuz.html Access: 22/11/19
  • Milli Istihbarat Teskilati. Kronoloji. Retrieved from. http://www.mit.gov.tr/text_site/kronoloji.html Access: 22/11/19
  • Milmo, C. (July 29, 2013). MI6 and MI5 `refuse to use Lenovo computers` over claims Chinese company makes them vulnerable to hacking. The Independent. Retrieved from. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/mi6-and-mi5-refuse-to-use-lenovo-computers-over-claims-chinese-company-makes-them-vulnerable-to-8737072.html Access: 22/11/19
  • Moore, J. (July 25, 2017). How ISIS remote-controls its European operatives to commit an attack: 'be quick'. Newsweek. Retrieved from. https://www.newsweek.com/be-quick-how-isis-remotely-directs-its-operatives-commit-attack-europe-641448 Access: 12/02/20
  • Nakashima, E. & Gillum, J. (September 13, 2017). U.S. moves to ban Kaspersky software in federal agencies amid concerns of Russian espionage. The Washington Post. Retrieved from. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-to-ban-use-of-kaspersky-software-in-federal-agencies-amid-concerns-of-russian-espionage/2017/09/13/36b717d0-989e-11e7-82e4-f1076f6d6152_story.html?tid=ss_tw-amp&utm_term=.d620250ef133 Access: 22/11/19
  • National Cyber Security Centre (June 9, 2017). About the NCSC. Retrieved from. https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/information/about-ncsc Access: 22/11/19
  • Nicander, L. D. (2011). Understanding intelligence community innovation in the post-9/11 world. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 24(3), 534-568.
  • O'Halpin, E. (2005). The Liddell diaries and British intelligence history. Intelligence and National Security, 20(4), 670-686.
  • Perlman, S. M. (2018). US intelligence and communist plots in postwar France. Intelligence and National Security, 33(3), 376-390.
  • Popper, N. (August 18, 2019). Terrorists Turn to Bitcoin for Funding, and They’re Learning Fast. The New York Times. Retrieved from. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/18/technology/terrorists-bitcoin.html Access: 12/02/20
  • Regens, J. L. (2019). Augmenting human cognition to enhance strategic, operational, and tactical intelligence. Intelligence and National Security, 34(5), 673-687.
  • Renz, B. (2016). Russia and ‘hybrid warfare’. Contemporary Politics, 22(3), 283-300.
  • Robarge, D. (2010). Leadership in an Intelligence Organization: The Directors of Central Intelligence and the CIA. In The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence, Oxford University Press, 485-501.
  • Rovner, J. (2013). Intelligence in the Twitter Age, International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 26(2), 260-271
  • Rovner, J., & Long, A. (2005). The perils of shallow theory: Intelligence reform and the 9/11 commission. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 18(4), 609-637.
  • Rudner, M. (2006). Using financial intelligence against the funding of terrorism. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 19(1), 32-58.
  • Sanger, D. E. (April 24, 2016). U.S. Cyberattacks Target ISIS in a New Line of Combat. The New York Times. Retrieved from. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/25/us/politics/us-directs-cyberweapons-at-isis-for-first-time.html Access: 29/02/20
  • Secret Intelligence Service. Science and Technology. Retrieved from. https://www.sis.gov.uk/science-and-technology.html Access: 11/22/17
  • Singh, S. J. (2019). The U.S. Intelligence Enterprise and the Role of Privatizing Intelligence. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School.
  • SM Irwin, A. & Raymond Choo, K. K., & Lui, L. (2014). Money laundering and terrorism financing in virtual environments: A feasibility study. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 17(1), 50-75.
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  • Stimson, C. & Habeck, M. (2016). Reforming Intelligence: A Proposal for Reorganizing the Intelligence Community and Improving Analysis. The Heritage Foundation.
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  • Tremblay, P. (November 6, 2016). Post-coup shake-up at Turkey’s intelligence agency. Al- Monitor. Retrieved from. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/11/turkey-post-botched-coup-shake-up-at-turkish-intelligence.html Access: 22/11/19
  • Tu, K. V. and Meredith, M. W. (2015). Rethinking virtual currency regulation in the Bitcoin age. Wash. L. Rev., 90, 271-348.
  • Turpin, J. B. (2014). Bitcoin: the economic case for a global, virtual currency operating in an unexplored framework. Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, 21(1), 335-368.
  • Ünver, H. A. (July 2018). Digital Open Source Intelligence and International Security: A Primer. Cyber Governance and Digital Democracy 2018/8. EDAM, Istanbul.
  • Vovchenko, G. N. Tischenko, N. E., Epifanova, V. T., & Gontmacher, B. M. (2017). Electronic currency: The potential risks to national security and methods to minimize them. European Research Studies Journal, 20(1), 36-48.
  • Walsh, P. F. (2017). Making future leaders in the US intelligence community: challenges and opportunities, Intelligence and National Security, 32(4), 441-459.
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  • Wirtz, J. J. (2017). The Cyber Pearl Harbor, Intelligence and National Security, 32(6), 758-767.
  • Zegart, A. B. (2005). September 11 and the adaptation failure of US intelligence agencies. International Security, 29(4), 78-111.
  • Zegart, A. B. (2006). An empirical analysis of failed intelligence reforms before September 11. Political Science Quarterly, 121(1), 33-60.
Toplam 94 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ahmet Ateş 0000-0001-5184-7701

Yayımlanma Tarihi 12 Mayıs 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 17 Ocak 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Ateş, A. (2020). CURRENT CHALLENGES AND TRENDS IN INTELLIGENCE. Güvenlik Bilimleri Dergisi, 9(1), 177-204. https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.736153

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