TY  - JOUR
T1  - Makine Öğrenmesi Yöntemleri Kullanılarak Hanehalkı Toplam Enerji Harcamaları Tahmini
TT  - Prediction of Household Total Energy Expenditures Using Machine Learning Methods
AU  - Kesriklioglu, Esma
AU  - Oktay, Erkan
PY  - 2023
DA  - January
JF  - Turkish Research Journal of Academic Social Science
JO  - TURAJAS
PB  - Hüdaverdi BİRCAN
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2667-4491
SP  - 110
EP  - 118
VL  - 5
IS  - 2
LA  - tr
AB  - Ülkelerin kalkınma hızı ve ekonomik gelişmelere bağlı olarak tüketim alışkanlıklarının yelpazesi kontrolsüz bir şekilde genişlemektedir. Yükselen yaşam standartları ile birlikte, kaçınılmaz olarak hanehalkı enerji tüketimi de enerji talebinin son yıllarda önemli ölçüde artmasına neden olmaktadır. Dünya çapında önemli bir enerji kullanıcısı olan hanehalklarının enerji kullanımı hakkında artan bir endişe bulunmaktadır. Hanehalkı toplam enerji harcamalarını tahmin etmek için makine öğrenmesi yöntemlerinin uygunluğunu araştıran çalışmalar yetersizdir. Bu boşluğu gidermek için bu çalışmada, hanehalkı toplam enerji harcamalarının regresyon tahmini için farklı makine öğrenmesi yöntemlerinin karşılaştırılması sunulmuştur. En iyi tahmin performansını sağlayan makine öğrenmesi yönteminin bulunması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK)’ten elde edilen, Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi 2019 veri seti kullanılmıştır. 11.521 hanenin hanehalkı tüketim verileri incelenmiştir. Yapılan literatür taraması ve uzman görüşü rehberliğinde hanehalkı enerji harcamaları ile doğrudan veya dolaylı olarak ilgili değişkenler oluşturulmuştur. Hazırlanan değişkenler açık kaynak erişimli RapidMiner yazılım programı ile veri ön işleme, öznitellik seçimi, modelleme, tahmin ve performans değerlendirme aşamalarından geçirilmiştir. Hanehalkı toplam enerji harcamalarını tahmin etmek için regresyona bağlı farklı makine öğrenimi yaklaşımları kullanılmıştır. Modelleme aşamasında, DL, GBT, RF, KNN, DT makine öğrenmesi modelleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, en yüksek R2 (0,99) ve en düşük RMSE (5,5) ile en iyi performansı, DL modeli göstermiştir. Analiz sonuçları, hanehalkı toplam enerji harcamaları tahmininde derin öğrenme yöntemi ile daha doğru sonuçlar elde edildiğini göstermektedir.
KW  - makine öğrenmesi
KW  - Hanehalkı Enerji Harcaması
KW  - Derin Öğrenme
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UR  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/turajas/article/1163420
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/2602007
ER  -