TY  - JOUR
T1  - A COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE CRUDE BIRTH RATE DATA
TT  - DOĞUM ORANININ MODELLENMESİ İÇİN İSTATİSTİKSEL DAĞILIMLARIN KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI
AU  - Ünal, Ceren
AU  - Özel, Gamze
PY  - 2023
DA  - December
DO  - 10.55071/ticaretfbd.1277633
JF  - İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi
PB  - İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 1305-7820
SP  - 281
EP  - 291
VL  - 22
IS  - 44
LA  - en
AB  - Population statistics and demographic are important indicators to show the country's quality of life, social and health, the status of the population, the change in the population structure, and its effect on economic life. In demography, the crude birth rate is used to measure the growth of a population. In this study, we perform the crude birth rate values by statistical regions in Türkiye with some statistical distributions. When the results are compared, the Gumbel distribution provides the best fit to model the crude birth rate values than Normal, Log-Normal, Exponential, Gamma, and Weibull distributions. Among compared distributions, the Gumbel model is the best model to present the CBR data since log likelihood (logL), Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) values of the Gumbel distribution are the lowest among all models. In addition, the results with the compared distributions are supported by graphs.
KW  - Crude birth rate
KW  - Extreme value distributions
KW  - Gumbel distribution
KW  - Population estimates
KW  - Turkish population
N2  - Nüfus istatistikleri ve demografi, ülkenin yaşam kalitesini, sosyal ve sağlık durumunu, nüfusun durumunu, nüfus yapısındaki değişimi ve bunun ekonomik hayata etkisini gösteren önemli göstergelerdir. Demografide, bir nüfusun büyümesini ölçmek için kaba doğum hızı kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki istatistiki bölge sınıflandırmasına göre kaba doğum hızı değerlerinin istatistiki dağılımlara uyumu araştırılmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar karşılaştırıldığında, Türkiye'de kaba doğum hızı değerlerini modellemek için Normal, Log-Normal, Exponential, Gamma ve Weibull dağılımlarına göre en iyi uyumu Gumbel dağılımı sağlamaktadır. Karşılaştırılan dağılımlar arasında, Gumbel dağılımının log olabilirlik (logL), Akaike bilgi kriterleri (AIC) ve Bayes bilgi kriterleri (BIC) değerleri tüm modeller arasında en düşük olduğundan, CBR verilerini en iyi sunan model Gumbel modelidir. Ayrıca, karşılaştırılan dağılımlar ile sonuçlar grafiklerle desteklenmiştir.
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.55071/ticaretfbd.1277633
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/3061694
ER  -