@article{article_1403643, title={Geopolitical Risk Spillovers: Evidence from G20 Countries}, journal={Journal of Economics and Political Sciences(Türkiye)}, volume={3}, pages={64–77}, year={2023}, url={https://izlik.org/JA46PU62NC}, author={Kırcı Altınkeski, Buket}, keywords={Jeopolitik Risk, Yayılma Analizi, TVP-VAR Model, G20 Ülkeleri}, abstract={The repercussions of geopolitical risks encountered by a nation extend beyond its borders and can have a ripple effect on neighboring and even distant countries. These geopolitical risks, stemming from a mix of political, geographical, and geopolitical factors, can influence other nations through international tensions, security concerns, trade disputes, acts of terrorism, armed conflicts, natural disasters, and political instability. The paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationships between geopolitical risk indices of G20 countries using spillover analysis based on the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. For this purpose, the geopolitical risk indices calculated by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) have been utilized. The analysis results indicate that the transmission of geopolitical risks is primarily directed from advanced Western countries (such as the US, the UK, and Germany) to other countries in the sample. Particularly, it has been identified that China and Russia have been transmitting geopolitical risks to other countries, especially after 2010. Furthermore, the time-varying total spillover index captures hightened geopolitical risks episodes. Indonesia, Argentina, and Mexico stand out as the countries receiving the highest level of geopolitical risk spillover. Since geopolitical risks are closely related to economic growth, trade, and financial markets, the analysis results will provide valuable insights for policymakers and market participants.}, number={2}