TY  - JOUR
T1  - Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği ve Petrol Fiyatı Şoklarının Hisse Senedi Getirileri Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Üzerine Yapısal VAR Analizi
TT  - The Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Oil Price Shocks on Stock Returns: A Structural VAR Analysis on Türkiye
AU  - Ünlü, Fatma
PY  - 2024
DA  - August
Y2  - 2024
DO  - 10.26650/JEPR1410149
JF  - İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi
JO  - JEPR
PB  - İstanbul Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2148-3876
SP  - 158
EP  - 185
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
LA  - tr
AB  - Son yıllarda ekonomik politika belirsizliğindeki ve petrol fiyatındaki dalgalanmaların yol açtığı küresel şokların finansal piyasalar üzerinde yarattığı etkiler literatürde sıklıkla tartışılan konulardan birisidir. Özellikle kırılgan ekonomiler açısından hem araştırmacıların hem de politika yapıcıların ilgi odağı haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve petrol fiyatı şoklarının hisse senedi getirileri üzerindeki etkilerinin araştırılmasına katkı sağlamak amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda, Türkiye’nin 2014:01-2023:06 dönemine ait aylık verileri kullanılarak yapısal VAR analizine ilişkin ekonometrik prosedür takip edilmiştir. Değişken olarak ise küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği endeksi, Brent ham petrolün küresel fiyatı, BIST-100 Getiri Endeksi, TÜFE bazlı reel efektif döviz kuru ve faiz oranı kullanılmıştır. Analizlerden elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre, küresel ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve BIST getiri endeksi arasında negatif yönlü bir ilişki vardır. Petrol fiyatı değişkeni ile BIST getiri endeksi arasındaki ilişkinin yönü ise pozitiftir. Bununla birlikte, BIST hisse senedi getirilerindeki değişmelerin büyük kısmı reel döviz kuru şokları tarafından açıklanmaktadır. Faiz oranındaki değişmelerin etkisi de ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve petrol fiyatı şoklarından daha fazladır. Bu doğrultuda, Türkiye’de döviz kuru ve faiz oranındaki değişmelerin borsa getirileri üzerinde önemli derecede etkili olduğu söylenebilir.
KW  - Ekonomik politika belirsizliği
KW  - Petrol fiyatı şokları
KW  - Hisse senedi piyasası
KW  - SVAR analizi
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1410149
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/3621517
ER  -