TY - JOUR T1 - TÜRKİYE’DE COVID 19 KISITLAMALARININ KREDİ DÖNÜŞLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN ANALİZİ TT - ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS ON LOAN REPAYMENTS IN TURKEY AU - Meriç, Ekrem PY - 2024 DA - December Y2 - 2024 DO - 10.17130/ijmeb.1498502 JF - Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi JO - ijmeb PB - Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit Üniversitesi WT - DergiPark SN - 2147-9208 SP - 1161 EP - 1177 VL - 20 IS - 4 LA - tr AB - COVID-19 pandemisinin ortaya çıkışı ve yayılmaya başlaması ile birlikte yaşanan olumsuzluklardanetkileri farklı düzeyde olmak üzere bireyler ve işletmelerin tümü etkilenmiştir. Pandeminin olumsuzetkilerini azaltmak amacı ile dünyada ve Türkiye’de bazı ekonomik önlemler alınmıştır. Pandemininyayılımını ve yarattığı ekonomik etkileri sınırlamayı amaçlayan korumacı önlemler ve ekonomik destekuygulamalarının bireyler ve işletmeler üzerinde önemli etkileri gözlenmiştir. Bununla birlikte tüm dünyadayaşanan ekonomik daralmanın işletmelere etkisi ve buna bağlı olarak gözlenen istihdam azalışı ilebirlikte pandemi öncesinde ve pandemi döneminde kredi kurumlarınca verilen kredilerin geri dönüşlerindeolumsuz etkiler gözlenmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında COVID-19 döneminde kredi kurumları tarafındankullandırılan konut, taşıt ve ihtiyaç kredilerinden oluşan tüketici kredilerinin, bireysel kredi kartı kullanımlarının,ticari ve diğer kredilerin geri dönüşleri üzerindeki pandemiye bağlı geliştirilen kısıtlamalarınetkisinin detaylı olarak belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu kapsamda 1/06/2020- 12/30/2022 dönem verilerindenyararlanılarak Türkiye’de COVID-19 döneminde kısıtlama endeksi ile takipteki krediler olarak“Bireysel Kredi Kartları, ihtiyaç, konut, taşıt ve Ticari ve Diğer Krediler”e ilişkin veriler arasındakiilişkiler VAR modeli ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmada COVID-19’a bağlı kayıp ve olay sayılarını inceleyençalışmalardan farklı olarak vaka ve kayıp sayıları yerine Oxford COVID-19 Hükümet tepkisi izleyicisindenyararlanılmıştır. Çalışma bu nedenle farklılık göstermekte ve literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Ulaşılansonuçlar ışığında COVID¬-19 kısıtlamalarının bireylerin ve işletmelerin kullandığı krediler ve kredileringeri dönüşleri üzerinde farklı düzeylerde etkisi olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. KW - Pandemi KW - Takipteki Krediler KW - Nedensellik N2 - With the emergence and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, all individuals and businesses havebeen affected by the negativities experienced at different levels. To reduce the negative effects of thepandemic, some economic measures have been taken in the world and in Turkey. The protective measuresand economic support practices aimed at limiting the spread of the pandemic and the economic effects it has created have had significant effects on individuals and businesses. In addition, the impact of the economic contraction experienced all over the world on businesses and the resulting decrease in employment havebeen observed as well as negative effects on the returns on loans provided by credit institutions beforeand during the pandemic. Within the scope of the study, it was aimed to determine in detail the effects ofthe restrictions developed due to the pandemic on the returns on consumer loans consisting of housing,vehicle and consumer loans, individual credit card usage, commercial and other loans provided by creditinstitutions during the COVID-19 period. In this context, using the data from the period 1/06/2020 -12/30/2022, the relationships between the restriction index during the COVID-19 period in Turkey andthe data on “Individual Credit Cards, consumer, housing, vehicle and Commercial and Other Loans”within the scope of follow-up loans were examined with the VAR model. Unlike the studies examining thenumber of losses and incidents due to COVID-19, the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Trackerwas used instead of the number of cases and losses. For this reason, the study differs and contributes tothe literature. Under the results obtained, it was found that COVID-19 restrictions had different levels ofimpact on the loans used by individuals and businesses and the returns on loans. CR - Akıncı, M., Sevinç, D. E., & Yüce, G. (2020). Finansal piyasaların kara Mart’ı: Covid-19 pandemisinin Borsa İstanbul üzerindeki etkilerinin lineer olmayan ARDL analizi yardımıyla incelenmesi. Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Ek Sayı (2020), 215–244. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ igdirsosbilder/issue/66832/1045314 CR - Al-Awadhi, A. M., Alsaifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A., & Alhammadi, S. (2020). Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100326 CR - Al-Hadi, A., & Al-Abri, A. (2022). Firm-level trade credit responses to COVID-19-induced monetary and fiscal policies: International evidence. Research in International Business and Finance, 60, 101568. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101568 CR - Ashraf, B. N. (2020). Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities? Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 101249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101249 CR - Baig, A. S., Butt, H. A., Haroon, O., & Rizvi, S. A. (2021). Deaths, panic, lockdowns and US equity markets: The case of COVID-19 pandemic. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101701. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101701 CR - Bajra, U. Q., Aliu, F., Aver, B., & Čadež, S. (2022). COVID-19 pandemic–related policy stringency and economic decline: Was it really inevitable? Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 36(1), 499-515. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2022.2077792 CR - Charemza, W. W., & Derek, D.F. (1992). New Directions in Econometric Practise General to Spesific Modelling, Cointegration and Vector Autoregressions. England: Edward Elgar Pub. CR - Chen, M., Demir, E., García-Gómez, C. D., & Zaremba, A. (2020). The impact of policy responses to COVID-19 on U.S. travel and leisure companies. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights, 1(1), 100003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annale.2020.100003 CR - Çetin, A. C. (2020). Koronavirüs (Covid-19) Salgınının Türkiye’de Genel Ekonomik Faaliyetlere ve Hisse Senedi Borsa Endeksine Etkisi. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Uygulamalı Bilimler Dergisi, 4(2), 341–362. https://doi.org/10.31200/makuubd.766901 CR - Çolak, G., & Öztekin, Ö. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on bank lending around the world. Journal of Banking & Finance, 133, 106207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106207 CR - Dias, R., & Pereira, J. M. (2020). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets. International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Governance in Cognitive Cities, 1(2), 57-70. https://doi. org/10.4018/ijegcc.2020070105 CR - Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791 CR - Gündoğdu, A. (2017). Finansın Temel Teorileri. Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım, İstanbul. CR - Güven, G., & Uzkaralar, Ö. (2023). Koronavirüs Pandemi Sürecinin Türkiye’de BIST alt Sektör Endeksleri Üzerine Etkileri. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 7(1), 413-428. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik. 1150866 CR - Hale, T., Angrist, N., Goldszmidt, R., Kira, B., Petherick, A., Phillips, T., Webster, S., Cameron-Blake, E., Hallas, L., Majumdar, S., & Tatlow, H. (2021). A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker). Nature Human Behaviour, 5(4), 529–538. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01079-8 CR - Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time Series Analysis, Princeton. Princeton: University Press. Harjoto, M. A., Rossi, F., Lee, R., & Sergi, B. S. (2021). How do equity markets react to COVID-19? Evidence from emerging and developed countries. Journal of Economics and Business, 115, 105966. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2020.105966 CR - Ho, T. H., Nguyen, D. T., Luu, T. B., Le, T. D., & Ngo, T. D. (2023). Bank performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: Does income diversification help? Journal of Applied Economics, 26(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2023.2222964 CR - Horvath, A., Kay, B., & Wix, C. (2023). The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data. Journal of Banking & Finance, 152, 106854. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin. 2023.106854 CR - Hu, H., Chen, D., & Fu, Q. (2021). Does a government response to COVID-19 hurt the stock price of an energy enterprise? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 58(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1080/1 540496x.2021.1911803 CR - Huynh, N., Nguyen, D., & Dao, A. (2021). Sectoral performance and the government interventions during COVID-19 pandemic: Australian evidence. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(4), 178. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14040178 CR - Kamişli, M., Özer, M., Sayilir, Ö., & Diallo, P. R. (2023). Time scales based analysis of the effects of COVID- 19 related economic support on the stock markets in emerging markets. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 12(3), 41-60. https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0024 CR - Kumar, V., Leone, R. P., & Gaskins, J. N. (1995). Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures. International Journal of Forecasting, 11(3), 361-377. https://doi. org/10.1016/0169-2070(95)00594-2 CR - Liu, H., Manzoor, A., Wang, C., Zhang, L., & Manzoor, Z. (2020). The COVID-19 outbreak and affected countries stock markets response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 2800. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082800 CR - Meriç, E. (2023). The impact of policies developed under COVID-19 on financial markets: A Sectoral Analysis in Turkish Financial Markets. In: Buğan, M. F. & Tuna, İ. (eds.), Evolution of Financial Markets IV. Özgür Publications. https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub395.c1728 CR - Norden, L., Mesquita, D., & Wang, W. (2021). COVID-19, policy interventions and credit: The Brazilian experience. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 48, 100933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jfi.2021.100933 CR - Öner, M., & Aybars, A. (2021). How Borsa İstanbul (BIST) reacts to the novel coronavırus: The Covıd- 19 case. Journal of Research in Business, 6(1), 69–79. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/jrb/ issue/62838/894263 CR - Özer, M., Kamişli, S., Komath, M. A., & Sayilir, Ö. (2022a). Asymmetric causal relations between COVID-19 economic supports and real estate price shocks. International Real Estate Review, 25(4), 479-498. http://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/v25-no4-3_COVID-19- Support-and-Real-Estate-Shocks.pdf CR - Özer. M, Kamışlı, S., Temizel, F., & Kamışlı, M. (2022b). Are COVID-19-related economic supports one of the drivers of surge in bitcoin market? Evidence from linear and non-linear causality tests. Mathematics, 11(1), 196–196. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11010196 CR - Özer, M., Vukovic, D. B., Frömmel, M., & Kamişli, S. (2023). The effects of COVID-19 related response policies on the performances of technology-driven financial services companies. Finance Research Letters, 58, 104644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104644 CR - Phan, D. H., & Narayan, P. K. (2021). Country responses and the reaction of the stock market to COVID- 19—a preliminary exposition. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2138-2150. https:// doi.org/10.4324/9781003214687-2 CR - Prabheesh, K., Sasongko, A., & Indawan, F. (2023). Did the policy responses influence credit and business cycle Co-movement during the COVID-19 crisis? Evidence from Indonesia. Economic Analysis and Policy, 78, 243-255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2023.02.007 CR - Priya, P., & Sharma, C. (2023). COVID-19 related stringencies and financial market volatility: Sectoral evidence from India. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 15(1), 16-34. https://doi.org/10.1108/ jfep-05-2022-0136 CR - Reis, Ş. G. (2021). COVID-19 (koronavirüs) pandemisi ve risk iştahı: Borsa İstanbul yerli ve yabancı yatırımcılar örneği. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(3), 87-98. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.989364 CR - Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48. https://doi. org/10.2307/1912017 CR - Szász, L., Bálint, C., Csíki, O., Nagy, B. Z., Rácz, B., Csala, D., & Harris, L. C. (2022). The impact of COVID- 19 on the evolution of online retail: The pandemic as a window of opportunity. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 69, 103089. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2022.103089 CR - Ünal, S. (2020). COVID-19 salgınında Borsa İstanbul şirketlerinin fiyatlamalarının etkinliği. Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5, 13-31. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.795868 CR - Ventosa-Santaulària, D., Marmolejo, A., & Alvarado, L. (2023). The effect of financial policies implemented during COVID-19 on bank credit in the central American region. International Journal of Financial Studies, 11(2), 68. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11020068 World Health Organization. COVID-19 epidemiological update. Erişim Tarihi: 31 Ekim 2024. https:// www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-epidemiological-update---22-december-2023 CR - Wu, D. D., & Olson, D. L. (2020). The Effect of COVID-19 on the banking sector. In Pandemic risk management in operations and finance: Modeling the impact of COVID-19, (89–99), USA. https:// link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-52197-4_8 UR - https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1498502 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/3993838 ER -