TY  - JOUR
T1  - Türkiye'de Makroekonomik Faktörler ve Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksinin Cari Hesap Dengesine Etkileri: 1980 Sonrası için Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi
TT  - Effects of Macroeconomic Factors and World Uncertainty Index on Current Account Balance in Turkey: A Time Series Analysis for after 1980
AU  - Durusoy, Ömer Tanju
PY  - 2025
DA  - February
Y2  - 2025
DO  - 10.25229/beta.1514568
JF  - Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis
JO  - Beta
PB  - Mehmet SONGUR
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2548-0707
SP  - 257
EP  - 286
VL  - 10
IS  - 1
LA  - tr
AB  - 2008 Krizi sonrasında yapılan çalışmalarda, ekonomik belirsizliği ölçme ve inceleme konusundaki ilginin arttığı gözlemlenmektedir. Bu çalışmaların çoğu, önceki birçok çalışmada olduğu gibi, ekonomik belirsizliğin konjonktürel dalgalanmaları açıklayan önemli bir faktör olduğu konusunda hemfikirdir. Ekonomik belirsizliğin konjonktür üzerindeki etkisini göz önünde bulundurarak, bu çalışma, ekonomik belirsizliğin cari hesap dengesini açıklayan bir gösterge olarak ne ölçüde kullanılabileceğini değerlendirmektedir. Bu bağlamda, 1984'ün ikinci çeyreğinden 2023'ün üçüncü çeyreğine kadar olan dönem için zaman serisi analizi uygulanmıştır. Bu çalışmada kullanılan değişkenler arasında Türkiye'nin Cari Hesap Dengesi, GSYH Büyüme Oranı, Reel Döviz Kurları ve Türkiye için Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi yer almaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki dinamik ilişkinin yönü ve büyüklüğü hakkında bilgi edinmek için itki-tepki analizi kullanılmıştır. Çok değişkenli zaman serisi analizinde ADF birim kök testleri yapılmış ve uygulanan VAR modelinde gecikme uzunluğunu belirlemek için Akaike bilgi kriteri kullanılmıştır. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye'nin Cari Hesap Dengesi üzerinde ana belirleyici değişkenler olan GSYH büyüme oranı ve Reel Döviz Kuru değişikliklerinin belirleyici etkisi incelenen dönemde açıkça gözlemlenmiştir. Ancak, Türkiye için Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi'nin Cari Hesap Dengesi üzerindeki etkisi belirlenememiştir.Sonuç olarak incelediğimiz dönem itibariyle Türkiye’nin Cari Hesap Dengesi üzerinde temel belirleyici değişkenler olan GDP büyüme oranı ve Reel Döviz Kur’undaki değişmelerin belirleyici etkisi açıkça görülmektedir. Ancak Cari Hesap Dengesi üzerinde Türkiye için Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksinin etkileme gücü tespit edilememiştir.
KW  - Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi
KW  - Cari Hesap
KW  - Türkiye Ekonomisi
KW  - VAR Analizi
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1514568
L1  - http://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4063526
ER  -