TY  - JOUR
T1  - İklim Değişikliği Kaynaklı Göç Potansiyeli: Türkiye Üzerine Çok Boyutlu Bir Alan Araştırması
TT  - Climate change-induced migration potential: A multidimensional field study on Turkey
AU  - Tekin, Mehmet Kadri
AU  - Deniz, Orhan
PY  - 2025
DA  - April
Y2  - 2025
DO  - 10.33688/aucbd.1517859
JF  - Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi
JO  - CBD
PB  - Ankara Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 1303-5851
SP  - 236
EP  - 263
VL  - 23
IS  - 1
LA  - tr
AB  - Bu çalışma küresel ortak bir sorun olan iklim değişikliğinin göçler üzerindeki etkilerini Türkiye ölçeğinde ele almaktadır. Geleceğin önemli problemleri arasında gösterilen iklimsel göçün bütünlüklü bir fotoğrafını Türkiye özelinde göstermeyi ve bu anlamda henüz yeterince tartışılmamış bu alana dikkatleri çekerek katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Belirli iklimsel afetlere bağlı olarak seçilen birçok ilde toplumun farklı kesimleri (çiftçi, uzman vb.) ile toplamda 127 görüşme gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu görüşmelerde katılımcıların iklim değişikliği algısı, etkilenebilirlik düzeyleri ve göç potansiyelleri ele alınmıştır. Bulgular, ülke genelinde tüm katılımcılar düzeyinde belirgin bir iklim değişikliği algınının varlık gösterdiğini, etkilenmenin yüksek ve göç potansiyelleri bağlamında da üç şekilde tepki tepki verdiğini göstermektedir: göçe direnç, arafta kalma ve son çare olarak göç etme isteği. İklim değişikliği ile ilişkili afetler özellikle çarpan özelliği itibariyle ülke içi göç hareketleri üzerinde önemli bir tehdit unsuru haline geldiği söylenebilir. Tüm afetler içinde özellikle kuraklık ve onun neden olduğu sorunların ülke içi göçleri belirleyeceği kanısındayız.
KW  - Türkiye
KW  - Göç
KW  - İklim Değişikliği
KW  - İklimsel Göç
KW  - Afetler
N2  - This study examines the effects of climate change, a common global problem, on migration at the scale of Türkiye. It aims to provide a comprehensive picture of climate-induced migration, specifically within Türkiye, and to draw attention to this area, which still needs to be sufficiently discussed. 127 interviews were conducted with different segments of society (farmers, experts, etc.) in various provinces selected based on specific climate-related disasters. These interviews explored participants' perceptions of climate change, their vulnerability levels, and their migration potential. The findings indicate a significant perception of climate change across all participants nationwide, with high levels of impact and three types of responses regarding migration potential: resistance to migration, remaining in a state of limbo, and a desire to migrate as a last resort. Climate change-induced related disasters, particularly due to their multiplier effects, have significantly threatened internal migration movements. Among all disasters, we believe that drought and its associated problems will particularly determine internal migrations.
CR  - Afifi, T. ve Jäger, J. (Eds.) (2010). Environment, forced migration and social vulnerability. Heidelberg: Springer.
Afifi, T. (2011). Economic or environmental migration? The push factors in Niger. International Migration, 49, e95-e124. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2435.2010.00644.x
CR  - Aydın, O., Ünaldı, Ü. E., Duman, N., Çiçek, İ., Türkoğlu, N. (2017). Türkiye’de su kıtlığının mekânsal ölçekte değerlendirilmesi. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, 68, 11-18. doi: 10.17211/tcd.314754
CR  - Aydoğdu, M. H., Cançelik, M., Sevinç, M. R., Çullu, M. A., Yenigün, K., Küçük, N., ..., Yenikale, A. (2021). Is drought caused by fate? Analysis of farmers’ perception and its influencing factors in the irrigation areas of GAP-Şanlıurfa, Türkiye. Water, 13(18), 2519. doi: 10.3390/w13182519
CR  - Baird, R. ve Christian, A. (2007). Human tide: the real migration crisis: a Christian Aid report. London: Christian Aid. Available at: http://www.christianaid.org.uk/images/human-tide.pdf adresinden edinilmiştir.
CR  - Bayram, H. ve Öztürk, A. B. (2014). Global Climate change, desertification, and ıts consequences in Türkiye and the Middle East. In K. E. Pinkerton, W. N. Rom (Eds.), Global climate change and public health (pp. 293-305). New York: Springer,
CR  - Biermann, F. ve Boas, I. (2010). Preparing for a warmer world: Towards a global governance system to protect climate refugees. Global environmental politics, 10(1), 60-88. doi: 10.1162/glep.2010.10.1.60
CR  - Black, R., Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A. ve Thomas, D. (2011). The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global environmental change, 21, 3-11. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001
CR  - Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M. ve Hsiang, S. M. (2014). Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(27), 9780-9785. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1317166111
CR  - Bozkurt, D. ve Şen, Ö. L. (2013). Climate change impacts in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations. Journal of hydrology, 480, 149-161. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.021
CR  - Bozoğlu, M., Başer, U., Eroğlu, N. A. ve Topuz, B. K. (2019). Impacts of climate change on Turkish agriculture. Journal of International Environmental Application and Science, 14(3), 97-103.
CR  - Brown, O. (2008). Migration and climate change. Geneva: IOM Migration Research Series No 31, International Organization for Migration. http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/free/MRS-31_EN.pdf
CR  - Burzynski, M., Deuster, C., Docquier, F. ve De Melo, J. (2019). Climate change, inequality, and human migration. IRES Discussion papers. http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/219749 adresinden edinilmiştir.
CR  - Curran, S. R. ve Meijer-Irons, J. (2014). Climate variability, land ownership and migration: evidence from Thailand about gender impacts. Washington journal of environmental law & policy, 4(1), 37-74.
CR  - Cutter, S. L ve, Ash, K. D., Emrich, C. T. (2016). Urban–rural differences in disaster resilience. Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 106(6), 1236-1252. doi: 10.1080/24694452.2016.1194740
CR  - Çiçek, İ. ve Duman, N. (2015). Seasonal and annual precipitation trends in Türkiye. Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, 10 (2), 77-84.
CR  - Çulpan, H. C., Şahin, Ü. ve Can, G. (2022). A step to develop heat-health action plan: Assessing heat waves’ impacts on mortality. Atmosphere, 13(12), 2126. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13122126
CR  - Delacrétaz, N., Lanz, B., Delju, A. H., Piguet, E. ve Rebetez, M. (2023). Impacts of rainfall shocks on out-migration are moderated more by per capita income than by agricultural output in Türkiye. Population and Environment, 45(12), 2-28. doi: 10.1007/s11111-023-00423-6
CR  - Delju, A. H., Piguet, E., Rebebez, M. ve Ceylan, A. (2019). Drought-induced human displacement in Türkiye. Working Paper series MAPS, Université de Neuchâtel.
CR  - Dellal, İ., McCarl, B. A. ve Butt, T. (2011). The economic assessment of climate change on Turkish agriculture. Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology, 12(1), 376-385.
CR  - Demircan, M., Gürkan, H., Eskioğlu, O., Arabacı, H. ve Coşkun, M. (2017). Climate change projections for Türkiye: three models and two scenarios. Turkish Journal of Water Science and Management, 1(1), 22-43.
CR  - Doran, İ., Koca, Y. K. ve Kılıç, T. (2008). Olası iklim değişiminin Diyarbakır tarımına etkileri. V. Ulusal Coğrafya Sempozyumu Tam Metin Bildiler Kitabı içinde (ss. 369-377), Ankara, Türkiye.
CR  - Dumrul, Y. ve Kılıçaslan, Z. (2017). Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: Empirical evidence from ARDL approach for Türkiye. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 6(4), 336-347. doi: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2017.766
CR  - El-Hinnawi, E. (1985). Environmental Refugees. Nairobi: UNEP.
CR  - EM-DAT. (2022). The international disaster database. 23.03.2022 tarihinde https://public.emdat.be/ adresinden edinilmiştir.
CR  - Ergin, M. (2017). Drought-induced migrations in Syria and Türkiye. ISLE: Interdisciplinary Studies in Literature and Environment, 24(2), 257-273.
CR  - Flavell, A., Milan, A. ve Melde, S. (2019). Migration, environment and climate change: Literature review. Berlin: Umweltbendesamt.
CR  - Foresight. (2011). Migration and global environmental change: Final project report. London: The Government Office for Science, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/287717/11-1116-migration-and-global-environmental-change.pdf.
CR  - Gökçe, O., Özden, Ş. ve Demir, A. (2008). Türkiye’de afetlerin mekânsal ve istatistiksel dağılımı afet bilgileri envanteri (rapor). Ankara: T.C Bayındırlık ve İskân Bakanlığı Afet İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü, Afet Etüt ve Hasar Tespit Daire Başkanlığı.
CR  - Gray, C. ve Mueller, V. (2012). Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World development, 40(1), 134-145. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.05.023
CR  - Gröschl, J. ve Steinwachs, T. (2017). Do natural hazards cause international migration? CESifo Economic Studies, 63(4), 445-480. doi: 10.1093/cesifo/ifx005
CR  - IDMC. (2021). Internal displacement in a changing climate. Geneva, Switzerland: The Internal Displacement Monitoring Cente Publication.
CR  - IDMC. (2022). Global internal displacement database. 01.11.2022 tarihinde https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/displacement-data adresinden edinilmiştir.
CR  - IDMC. (2023). Internal displacement and food security. Geneva, Switzerland: The Internal Displacement Monitoring Cente Publication.
CR  - IPCC. (1992). Climate change: the 1990 and 1992 IPCC assessments. World Meteorological Organization/UNEP and IPCC.
CR  - IPCC. (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the ıntergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 582 pp.
CR  - IPCC. (2014). Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. part A: global and sectoral aspects. contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the ıntergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 1132 pp.
CR  - İklimhaber ve KONDA. (2018). Türkiye’de iklim değişikliği algısı ve enerji tercihleri araştırması (rapor). https://www.iklimhaber.org/  (erişim tarihi: 18.08.2022).
CR  - İzol, B., Yetmen, H. ve Benek, S. (2023). İklim değişikliğinin ve değişebilirliğinin yerel göç ve çatışmalardaki rolü: Siverek-Diyarbakır (Karacadağ yöresi) örneği. Coğrafya Dergisi, 46, 67-80. doi: 10.26650/JGEOG2023-1165495
CR  - Kaczan, D. J. ve Orgill-Meyer, J. (2020). The impact of climate change on migration: a synthesis of recent empirical insights. Climatic Change, 158(3), 281-300. doi: 10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0
CR  - Kadıoğlu, M. (1997). Trends in surface air temperature data over Türkiye. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 17(5), 511-520.
CR  - Kadirbeyoğlu, Z. (2010). In the land of ostriches: Developmentalism, environmental degradation and forced migration in Türkiye. In T. Afifi, J. Jäger (Eds.), Environment, forced migration and social vulnerability (pp. 223-234). Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
CR  - Kälin, W., Schrepfer, N. (2012). Protecting people crossing borders in the context of climate change-normative gaps and possible approaches. Geneva, Switzerland: Division Of International Protection United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
CR  - Kelman, I., Ahmed, B., Esraz-Ul-Zannat, M., Saroar, M. M., Fordham, M., Shamsudduha, M. (2018). Warning systems as social processes for Bangladesh cyclones. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 27(4), 370-379.
CR  - Koç, G. ve Thieken, A. H. (2018). The relevance of flood hazards and impacts in Türkiye: What can be learned from different disaster loss databases? Natural hazards, 91, 375-408. doi: 10.1007/s11069-017-3134-6
CR  - Laczko, F. ve Aghazarm, C. (2009). Migration, environment and climate change: assessing the evidence. Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration (IOM).
CR  - Lelandais, G. E. (2016). Drought, social inequalities, adaptation, and farmers’ mobility in the Konya plain of Türkiye. In R. McLeman, J. Schade, T. Faist (Eds.), Environmental migration and social inequality (pp. 91–102). Springer.
CR  - McLeman, R., Opatowski, M., Borova, B., Walton-Roberts. M. (2016). Environmental migration and displacement: what we know and don’t know. http://www.laurierenvironmentalmigration.com/wpcontent/uploads/2015/11/WLU Environmental-Migration-Background-Report.pdf adresinden edinilmiştir.
CR  - Mishra, N. P., Das, S. S., Yadav, S., Khan, W., Afzal, M., Alarifi, A., ..., Nayak, A. K. (2020). Global impacts of pre-and post-COVID-19 pandemic: Focus on socio-economic consequences. Sensors International, 1, 100042. doi: 10.1016/j.sintl.2020.100042
CR  - Myers, N. ve Kent, J. (1995). Environmental exodus: an emergent crisis in the global arena. Washington: Climate Institute.
CR  - Myers, N. (1993). Environmental refugees in a globally warmed world. BioScience, 43(11), 752-761.  doi: 10.2307/1312319
CR  - Myers, N. (2002). Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 357(1420), 609-613. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2001.0953
CR  - Nawrotzki, R. J., DeWaard, J. (2018). Putting trapped populations into place: climate change and inter-district migration flows in Zambia. Regional Environmental Change, 2, 533-546. doi: 10.1007/s10113-017-1224-3
CR  - Önol, B., Semazzi, F. H. (2009). Regionalization of climate change simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean. Journal of Climate, 22(8), 1944-1961. doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI1807.1
CR  - Özdoğan, M. (2011). Modeling the impacts of climate change on wheat yields in Northwestern Türkiye. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 141(1/2), 1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2011.02.001
CR  - Rigaud, K. K., De Sherbinin, A., Jones, B., Bergmann, J., Clement, V., Ober, K., …, Midgley, A. (2018). Groundswell: preparing for internal climate migration. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/29461
CR  - Serkendiz, H., Tatli, H., Özcan, H., Çetin, M., Sungur, A. (2023). Multidimensional assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability based on socioeconomic and biophysical indicators. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 98, 104121. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104121
CR  - Şen, Ö. L. (2013). A holistic view of climate change and its impacts in Türkiye. İstanbul: Istanbul Policy Center. https://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/tr/search?text=Holistic+View+of+Climate+
CR  - Tekin, M. K. (2023). Küresel iklim değişiminin göçler üzerine etkileri ve Türkiye’ye dair öngörüler (Basılmamış Doktora Tezi). Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Coğrafya Anabilim Dalı, Van.
CR  - Tekin, M. K. ve Deniz, O. (2023). İklimsel göçün küresel ölçekte mekânsal görünümü. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(48), 981-1004. doi: 10.46928/iticusbe.1340951
CR  - Tekin, M. K. ve Deniz, O. (2024). İnsan müdahalesi, iklim değişikliği ve toplumsal sorunlar sarmalında yaşanan çevre felaketlerine politik ve ekolojik bir yaklaşım: Marmara Gölü (Manisa) örneği. Coğrafya Dergisi, 49, 191-210. doi: 10.26650/JGEOG2024-1534874
CR  - Turhan, E., Zografos, C. ve Kallis, G. (2015). Adaptation as biopolitics: why state policies in Türkiye do not reduce the vulnerability of seasonal agricultural workers to climate change. Global Environmental Change, 31, 296-306. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.02.003
CR  - Türkeş, M. ve Erlat, E. (2003). Precipitation changes and variability in Türkiye linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation during the period 1930–2000. International Journal of Climatology, 23(14), 1771-1796. doi: 10.1002/joc.962
CR  - Türkeş, M. ve Tatlı, H. (2009). Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Türkiye. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 2270–2282.  doi: 10.1002/joc.1862
CR  - Türkeş, M. (1996). Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Türkiye. International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1057-1076.
CR  - Türkeş, M. (1998). Influence of geopotential heights, cyclone frequency and southern oscillation on rainfall variations in Türkiye. International Journal of Climatology, 18, 649–680.
CR  - Türkeş, M. (2012). Türkiye’de gözlenen ve öngörülen iklim değişikliği, kuraklık ve çölleşme. Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi, 4(2), 1-32.
CR  - Türkeş, M. (2017). Türkiye’nin iklimsel değişkenlik ve sosyo-ekolojik göstergeler açısından kuraklıktan etkilenebilirlik ve risk çözümlemesi. Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, 26(2), 47-70.
CR  - Türkeş, M., Koç, T. ve Sarış, F. (2009). Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Türkiye. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1056-1074. doi: 10.1002/joc.1768
CR  - Türkeş, M., Öztaş, T., Tercan, E., Erpul, G., Karagöz, A., Dengiz, O., ..., Avcıoğlu, B. (2020). Desertification vulnerability and risk assessment for Türkiye via an analytical hierarchy process model. Land degradation & development, 31(2), 205-214. doi: 10.1002/ldr.3441
CR  - UNDP. (2015). Human development report. http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/fles/2015_human_development_report_1.pdf
CR  - UNEP. (1992). World atlas of desertification. London: Edward Arnold.
CR  - Westing, A. H. (1992). Environmental refugees: a growing category of displaced persons. Environmental Conservation, 19(3), 201-207. doi: 10.1017/S037689290003099X
CR  - Yenal, Z. (2023). Buckling under ageing and climate crisis: Migration flows in Turkish agriculture. International Migration, 61(6), 349-353. doi: 10.1111/imig.13205
CR  - Yiğit, A., (2015). Türkiye’de yaylacılık faaliyetlerinin gerilemesi ile karın yerde kalma süresi arasındaki ilişkiler. Yayla Kültürü ve Yaylacılık Sempozyumu içinde (ss. 133-148), Bilecik: Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi Yayınları.
CR  - Yuvam Dünya Derneği., KONDA. (2021). “Türkiye’de iklim değişikliği algısı” araştırma sonuçları (rapor). İstanbul: KONDA. https://yuvamdunya.org/pages/arastirma-ve-raporlar adresinden edinilmiştir.
UR  - https://doi.org/10.33688/aucbd.1517859
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4077858
ER  -