TY - JOUR T1 - Understanding the status of key fish stocks in the Turkish Black Sea: A graphical approach to sustainable management TT - Karadeniz'deki önemli balık stoklarının durumunun anlaşılması: Sürdürülebilir yönetim için grafiksel bir yaklaşım AU - Demir, Mahir PY - 2025 DA - June Y2 - 2025 DO - 10.12714/egejfas.42.2.03 JF - Ege Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences JO - EgeJFAS PB - Ege Üniversitesi WT - DergiPark SN - 2148-3140 SP - 105 EP - 121 VL - 42 IS - 2 LA - en AB - Fish stocks are critical components of aquatic ecosystems, providing essential food sources for humanity and supporting the complex balance of marine food webs. Effective management of these resources is crucial for meeting global food demands and preserving aquatic biodiversity. In this study, we assess fishing pressures—categorized as low, high, and extreme—on six key fish stocks in the Turkish waters of the Black Sea: horse mackerel (Trachurus mediterraneus), the Black Sea anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus), sprat (Sprattus sprattus), whiting (Merlangius merlangus euxinus), bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix), and the Atlantic bonito (Sarda sarda) and provide important findings to protect fish stocks. By applying dynamic modeling and stability analysis solely to landing data, we create graphical representations that illustrate the current trends of these stocks, through growth and fishing mortality curves. Our findings reveal that although certain stocks have shown an upward trend over the past 15 years, they remain exposed to high levels of fishing mortality. To support sustainable management, this study establishes the Maximum Sustainable Yields (MSYs) for each stock based on their present conditions and identifies stable equilibrium points where stocks can be sustained over the long term. This method also provides an opportunity to analyze state of fish stocks when only landing data is available. KW - Black Sea fishery KW - fishing pressures KW - sustainable fisheries KW - fishery model KW - overfishing N2 - Balık stokları, su ekosistemlerinin temel bileşenleridir; insanlık için çok önemli bir gıda kaynağı sağlarken, besin zincirinin karmaşık dengesine de katkıda bulunurlar. Bu balık stokların etkin bir şekilde yönetimi, gıda taleplerini karşılamak ve denizlerdeki biyolojik çeşitliliği korumak açısından kritik öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin Karadeniz kıyısındaki altı ana balık stoğu – istavrit (Trachurus mediterraneus), hamsi (Engraulis encrasicolus), çaça (Sprattus sprattus), mezgit (Merlangius merlangus euxinus), lüfer (Pomatomus saltatrix) ve palamut (Sarda sarda) – düşük/yüksek/aşırı avlanma seviyelerine göre incelenmiştir ve bu stokların korunmasına dair önemli bulgular sunulmuştur. Sadece av istatistikleri kullanılarak dinamiksel bir inceleme ve denge analiziyle, balık stoklarının mevcut dinamiklerini grafiksel temsiller kullanarak analiz ettik. Bu grafikler, balık stoklarının büyüme eğrileri ve balıkçılık kaynaklı avlama (ölüm) eğrilerine dayanarak oluşturulmuştur. Araştırmamız, bazı stoklarda son 15 yılda artış eğilimi gözlense de hala yüksek düzeyde avlanma oranına maruz kaldıklarını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sorunu ele almak için çalışmamız, her bir balık stoğunun mevcut durumuna bağlı olarak Maksimum Sürdürülebilir Verim (MSV) değerlerini belirlemekte ve bu stokların uzun vadede sürdürülebilir kalabileceği denge noktalarını tespit etmektedir. Bu yöntem, avlanma verileri dışında herhangi bir veri bulunmadığında balık stoklarını analiz etme fırsatı da sunmaktadır. CR - Akkuş, G., & Gücü, A.C. (2022). A comparative assessment of the Black Sea anchovy stock using holistic production and analytical age structure models. Acta Biologica Turcica, 35(3), A5, 1-12. CR - Aslan, I.H., Demir, M., Wise, M.M., & Lenhart, S. (2022). Modeling COVID-19: Forecasting and analyzing the dynamics of the outbreak in Hubei and Turkey. Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences, 45(10), 6481 – 6494. https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.8181 CR - Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thuiller, W., & Courchamp, F. (2013). Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters, 16(4), 487–95. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.14610248.2011.01736.x CR - Botsford, L.W., Castilla, J.C., & Peterson, C.H. (1997). The management of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Science, 277(5325), 509-15. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.277.5325.509 CR - Bouch, P., Minto, C., & Reid, D.G. (2021). Comparative performance of data-poor CMSY and data-moderate SPiCT stock assessment methods when applied to data-rich, real-world stocks. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 78, 264–276. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa220 CR - Beverton, R.J.H., & Holt, S.J. (1957). On the dynamics of exploited fish populations. Fisheries Investigations, 19, 1-533. CR - Cheikh, B.B., Mohamed Ahmed, J., Jilali, B., Fambye N., Ad, C., & Jo, G. (2024). Overexploitation of round sardinella may lead to the collapse of flat sardinella: What lessons can be drawn for shared stocks. Fisheries Research, 269,106873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2023.106873 CR - Damir, N., Coatu, V., Danilov, D., Lazar, L., & Oros, A. (2024). From Waters to Fish: A Multi-Faceted Analysis of Contaminants’ Pollution Sources, Distribution Patterns, and Ecological and Human Health Consequences. Fishes, 9(7), 274. https://doi.org/10.3390/fishes9070274 CR - Daskalov, G.M. (2002). Overfishing drives a trophic cascade in the Black Sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 225, 53 63. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps225053 CR - Daskalov, G.M., Demirel, N., Ulman, A., Georgieva, Y., & Zengin, M. (2020). Stock dynamics and predator-prey effects of Atlantic bonito and bluefish as top predators in the Black Sea. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 77(7-8), 2995-3005. http://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa182 CR - Demirel, N., Zengin, M., & Ulman, A. (2020). First large-scale eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea stock assessment reveals a dramatic decline. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7(103). https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00103 CR - Demir, M., (2019). Optimal Control Strategies in Ecosystem-Based Fishery Models, Ph.D dissertation, University of Tennessee in Knoxville. Available from: https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss/5421 CR - Demir, M., & Lenhart S. (2020). Optimal sustainable fishery management of the Black Sea anchovy with food chain modeling framework. Natural Resource Modeling,33, e12253. https://doi.org/10.1111/nrm.12253 CR - Demir, M., & Lenhart, S. (2021). A spatial food chain model for the Black Sea anchovy, and its optimal fishery. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems Series B, 26(1), 155 171. https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdsb.2020373 CR - Demir, M. (2023). Importance of stability analysis for sustainable fisheries in the absence of important data. Acta Aquatica Turcica, 19(1), 071-087. https://doi.org/10.22392/actaquatr.1179986 CR - Demir, M. (2024). Predator effect of Atlantic bonito on the Black Sea anchovy and their sustainable and optimal fishery. Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 24(3), TRJFAS23861. https://doi.org/10.4194/TRJFAS23861 CR - Dick, E.J., & MacCall, Alec D. (2011). Depletion-based stock reduction analysis: A catch-based method for determining sustainable yields for data-poor fish stocks, Fisheries Research, 110(2), 331-341, ISSN0165-7836. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2011.05.007 CR - FishBase, Estimation of Life history key facts. Accessed February 7, 2025. https://www.fishbase.se/manual/key%20facts.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com CR - Fox, W.W. (1970). An exponential surplus-yield model for optimizing exploited fish populations? Transactions of American Fisheries Society, 99 (1), 80–88. CR - Froese, R., Demirel, N., Gianpaolo, C., Kleisner, K.M., & Winker, H. (2017). Estimating fisheries reference points from catch and resilience. Fish and Fisheries, 18(3), 506–526. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12190 CR - Froese, R., Winker, H., Coro, G., Palomares, M.L., Tsikliras, A.C., Dimarchopoulou, D., Touloumis, K., Demirel, N., Vianna, G.M.S., Scarcella, G., Schijns, R., Liang, C., & Pauly, D. (2023). New developments in the analysis of catch time series as the basis for fish stock assessments: The CMSY++ method. Acta Ichthyologica et Piscatoria, 53, 173-189. https://doi.org/10.3897/aiep.53.105910 CR - Gücü, A.C., Gen, Y., Dagtekin, M., Saknan, S., Ak, O., & Ok, M. (2017). On Black Sea anchovy and its fishery. Reviews in Fisheries Science and Aquaculture, 25, 149 162. https://doi.org/10.1080/23308249.2016.1276152 CR - Hilborn, R. (2012). Overfishing: What everyone needs to know. New York: Oxford University Press USA, OSO. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03632415.2014.903839 CR - Jenkins, D.G., & Quintana-Ascencio, P.F. (2020). A solution to minimum sample size for regressions. PLoS ONE, 15(2), e0229345. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0229345 CR - John, Fox (2015). Applied Regression Analysis and Generalized Linear Models. SAGE Publications (Book). ISBN: 1483321312, 9781483321318 CR - Kasapoğlu, N. (2018). Age, growth, and mortality of exploited stocks: anchovy, sprat, Mediterranean horse mackerel, whiting, and red mullet in the southeastern Black Sea. Aquatic Sciences and Engineering, 33(2), 39-49. https://doi.org/10.18864/ase201807 CR - Kot, M. (2001). Elements of mathematical ecology. Cambridge University Press. CR - Llope, M., Daskalov, G.M., Rouyer, T.A., Mihneva, V., Chan, K.S., Grishin, A. N., et al. (2011). Overfishing of top predators eroded the resilience of the Black Sea system regardless of the climate and anthropogenic conditions. Global Change Biology, 17, 1251 1265. https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1365-2486.2010.02331.x CR - Mainali, K.P., Warren, D.L., Dhileepan, K, McConnachie, A., Strathie, L., Hassan, G., et al. (2015). Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling. Global Change Biology, 21(12), 4293–4684. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13038 CR - Marino, S., Hogue, I.B., Ray, C.J., & Kirschner, D.E. (2008). A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 254(1), 178-196. https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.jtbi.2008.04 .011 CR - Nastase, A., & Paraschiv, G. (2024). Recent findings on the pollution levels in the Romanian Black Sea. Sustainability, 16(22), 9785. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16229785 CR - Neubert, M. G. (2003). Marine reserves and optimal harvesting. Ecology Letters, 6(9), 843–849 CR - Nogrady, B. (2023). Controlling pollution and overfishing can help protect coral reefs but it’s not enough. Nature, 620(7974), 479-479. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-02512-w CR - Özsandikçı, U. (2020). Estimation of exploitable sprat (Sprattus sprattus, Linnaeus, 1758) biomass along Black Sea coasts of Turkey (Samsun Region). Journal of New Results in Science, 9(3), 1-8. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1306269 CR - Patrick, W.S., & Cope, J. (2014). Examining the 10-Year rebuilding dilemma for U.S. fish stocks. PLoS ONE, 9(11), e112232. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0112232 CR - Raykov, V.S., & Duzgunes, E. (2017). Fisheries management in the Black Sea—pros and cons. Frontiers in Marine Science, 4: 227. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00227 CR - Salihoglu, B., Arkin, S.S., Akoglu, E., & Fach, B.A. (2017). Evolution of future Black Sea fish stocks under changing environmental and climatic conditions (report). Frontiers in Marine Science, 4: 339. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2017.00339 CR - Schaefer, M.B. (1954). Some aspects of the dynamics of populations important to the management of the commercial marine fisheries? Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, 1, 26–56. CR - STECF (2017). Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries (STECF) Black Sea Assessments. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, EUR 27517 EN, JRC, page 284 pp. CR - Sumaila, U.R., & Tai, T.C. (2020). End overfishing and increase the resilience of the ocean to climate change. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7, 523. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00523 CR - TUIK (2023). Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK). Quantity of harvested marine products and price of harvested marine products. https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=97&locale=tr CR - Winker, H., Carvalho, F., & Kapur, M. (2018). JABBA: just another Bayesian biomass assessment. Fisheries Research, 204, 275–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2018.03.010 CR - Zengin, M., & Dincer, A. C. (2006). Distribution and seasonal movement of Atlantic bonito (Sarda sarda) populations in the southern Black Sea coasts. Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 6, 57-62. https://www.trjfas.org/uploads/pdf_267.pdf CR - Zhou, S., Punt, A.E., Smith, A.D.M., Ye, Y., Haddon, M., Dichmont, C.M., & Smith, D.C. (2017). An optimized catch-only assessment method for data poor fisheries. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 75, 964–976. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsx226 UR - https://doi.org/10.12714/egejfas.42.2.03 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4448647 ER -