TY - JOUR T1 - An evaluation of the long-term changes in the shoreline of Lake Eğirdir in relation to climate and anthropogenic factors AU - Akpınar, Hasan AU - Yayla, Onur AU - Bilgin, Tuğçe AU - Atayeter, Yıldırım AU - Korkmaz, Ogün PY - 2025 DA - July Y2 - 2025 DO - 10.26650/JGEOG2025-1620561 JF - Journal of Geography PB - İstanbul Üniversitesi WT - DergiPark SN - 1305-2128 SP - 65 EP - 78 IS - 50 LA - en AB - This study quantifies shoreline changes in Lake Eğirdir between 1984 and 2024 by examining the direction, distance, and rate of change, along with climatic and anthropogenic influences. Landsat satellite images were used to delineate the lake's shoreline using the Modified Normalised Difference Water Index (MNDWI). Shoreline change rates were then calculated using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), employing metrics such as the End Point Rate (EPR), Linear Regression Rate (LRR), and Net Shoreline Movement (NSM). Results indicated the highest EPR value of 61,06 m/yr at transect 2035, while the highest LRR value was 39,78 m/yr. The NSM analysis revealed a maximum positive value of 2444,6 m, indicating significant recession in specific shoreline areas.The key factors driving these changes include climate change and agricultural irrigation practices. MannKendall trend analysis demonstrated a rising trend in maximum temperatures, although precipitation levels showed no significant variation. The expansion of fruit orchards around Lake Eğirdir has intensified water demand, resulting in a marked decline in water levels. This study highlights the combined impact of climatic shifts and human activities on shoreline dynamics, highlighting the need for sustainable water management strategies to mitigate further environmental degradation. KW - DSAS KW - Shoreline change KW - Eğirdir Lake CR - Aksoy, T., Sarı, S., & Çabuk, A. (2019). Sulak alanların yönetimi kapsamında su indeksinin uzaktan algılama ile tespiti, Göller Yöresi. GSI Journals Serie B: Advancements in Business and Economics, 2(1). google scholar CR - Alevkayalı, Ç., Atayeter, Y., Yayla, O., Bilgin, T., & Akpınar, H. (2023). Burdur Gölü’nde uzun dönemli kıyı çizgisi değişimleri ve iklim ilişkisi: Zamansal-mekânsal eğilimler ve tahminler. Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, (82), 37-50. google scholar CR - Aslan and Koc-San (2021). Investigation of the changes in lake surface temperatures and areas: Case study of Burdur and Egirdir Lakes, Turkey. The International Archives of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, 43, 299-304. google scholar CR - Atayeter, Y. (2005). Aksu Çayı Havzası’nın Jeomorfolojisi. Fakülte Kitabevi. google scholar CR - Atayeter, Y. (2011). Eğirdir Gölü Depresyonu ve Yakın Çevresinin Genel Fiziki Coğrafyası. Fakülte Kitabevi. google scholar CR - Ayadi, K., Boutiba, M., Sabatier, F., & Guettouche, M. S. (2016). Detection and analysis of historical variations in the shoreline using digital aerial photos, satellite images, and topographic surveys DGPS: case of Bejaia Bay (East Algeria). Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 9, 1-12. google scholar CR - Aydin, FA, & Dogu, AF (2018). Level changes in lakes and their causes: Van Lake example. Journal of Yuzuncu Yil University Social Sciences Institute, (41), pp. 183-208. google scholar CR - Bahadır, M. (2013). Akşehir Gölü’nde Alansal Değişimlerin Uzaktan Algilama Teknikleri ile Belirlenmesi. Marmara Coğrafya Dergisi, (28), 246-275. google scholar CR - Baig, M. H. A.; Zhang, L.; Shuai, T.; Tong, Q. (2020). Derivation of a tasselled cap transformation based on Landsat 8 at-satellite reflectance. Remote Sensing Letters, 11 (1), 66-75. https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2020.1714329 google scholar CR - Baş, N. (2023). An effective approach for analysis of shoreline change and determination of its future location using satellite imagery: A case study of Lake Burdur, Turkey. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 14(1), 61-72. google scholar CR - Bozyiğit, R., and Tapur, T. (2009). Konya ovası ve çevresinde yeraltı sularının obruk oluşumlarına etkisi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (21), 137-155. google scholar CR - Cengiz, T. M., & Kâhya, E. (2011). Türkiye göl su seviyelerinin eğilim ve harmonik analizi. İTÜDERGİSİ/d, 5(3). google scholar CR - Coşkun, S. (2024). Göller Yöresi’nde sıcaklık, yağış ve akım değerlerinde meydana gelen eğilimler (Akdeniz Bölgesi-Türkiye). Socıal Scıences Studıes Journal (SSSJournal), 6(66), 3142-3155. google scholar CR - Çankal, G., & Alkın, R. C. (2024). İklim Değişikliği, Bilinçsiz Tarım ve Afet Yönetimi: Karapınar Obruklarına Bir Bakış. Afet ve Risk Dergisi, 7(2), 410-425. google scholar CR - Demir, İ., Kılıç, G., Coşkun, M., & Sümer, U. M. (2008). Türkiye’de maksimum, minimum ve ortalama hava sıcaklıkları ile yağış dizilerinde gözlenen değişiklikler ve eğilimler. TMMOB İklim Değişimi Sempozyumu, Bildiriler Kitabı, 69, 84. google scholar CR - Dereli, M. A., & Tercan, E. (2020). Assessing shoreline changes using historical satellite images and geospatial analysis along the Lake Salda in Turkey. Earth science informatics, 13(3), 709-718. google scholar CR - Dereli, M. A., & Tercan, E. (2020). Assessment of shoreline changes using historical satellite images and geospatial analysis along the Lake Salda in Turkey. Earth Sci Inform. 2013; 13(3): 709-718. google scholar CR - Dolan, R., Fenster, M. S., & Holme, S. J. (1991). Temporal analysis of shoreline recession and accretion. Journal of coastal research, 723-744. google scholar CR - Dönmez, S. (2018). Akşehir Gölü su seviyesinin çekilmesinin meteorolojik ve uydu verileri ile incelenmesi. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, 33(1). google scholar CR - Dwyer, J. L., D. P. Roy, B. Sauer, C. B. Jenkerson, H. K. Zhang, and L. Lymburner (2018). Analysis of ready data: Enabling Landsat archive analysis. Remote Sensing, 10(9), 1363. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10091405 google scholar CR - Esper, J., Torbenson, M., & Büntgen, U. (2024). 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years. Nature, 1-2. google scholar CR - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. (2024). Climate change services: Annual climate report 2024. Copernicus Climate Change Service. Retrieved from https://climate.copernicus.eu/annual-climate-report-2024. google scholar CR - Hamed, K. H., & Rao, A. R. (1998). A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelate data. Journal of Hydrology, 204(1-4), 182-196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694 (97)00125-X,)[https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X]; google scholar CR - Himmelstoss, E. A., Henderson, R. E., Kratzmann, M. G., & Farris, A. S. (2021). Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), Version 5.1 User Guide (No. 2021-1053). U.S. Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20211053 google scholar CR - Hwang, C. S., Choi, C. U., & Choi, J. S. (2014). Shoreline changes interpreted from multi-temporal aerial photographs and high resolution satellite images. A case study in Jinha beach. Korean Journal of Remote Sensing, 30(5), 607-616. google scholar CR - Karmeshu, N. (2012). Trend detection in annual temperature & precipitation using the Mann-Kendall test-a case study to assess climate change on select States in the northeastern United States. Master of Environmental Studies Capstone Projects, 47, 1-33. google scholar CR - Lillesand, T., Kiefer, R. W., & Chipman, J. (2015). Remote sensing and image interpretation. John Wiley & Sons. google scholar CR - Lu, D., & Weng, Q. (2007). A survey of image classification methods and techniques for improving classification performance. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 28(5), 823-870. google scholar CR - Mann, H. B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13(3), 245-259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187 google scholar CR - McFeeters, S. K. (1996). Use of the normalised difference water index (NDWI) for delineating open water features. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 17(7), 1425-1432. google scholar CR - Mishra, R., Gupta, R. D., & Vishwakarma, A. K. (2019). Change detection analysis of coastlines using multi-temporal satellite images. Applied Geography, 102, 74-81. https://doi.Org/10.1016/i.apgeog.2018.11.010 google scholar CR - Moore, L. J. (2000). Shoreline mapping techniques. Journal of Coastal Research, 16(1), 111-124. https://doi.org/10.1006/ecss.1999.0587 google scholar CR - Moustafa, A. A., Elganainy, R. A., and Mansour, S. R. (2023). Insights into the UNSG announcement: The end of climate change and the arrival of the global boiling era, July 2023 confirmed as the hottest month recorded in the past 120,000 years. Catrina: The International Journal of Environmental Sciences, 28(1), 43-51. google scholar CR - Nassar, K., Mahmod, W. E., Fath, H., Masria, A., Nadaoka, K., & Negm, A. (2019). Shoreline change detection using DSAS technique: Case of North Sinai coast, Egypt. Marine Georesources and Geotechnology, 37(1), 81-95. google scholar CR - Onoz, B., and Bayazit, M. (2003). The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Turkish Journal of Engineering & Environmental Sciences, 27(4). google scholar CR - Richards, J. A. (2013). Remote sensing digital image analysis: An introduction. Springer. google scholar CR - Sabins, F. F. (1997). Remote sensing: Principles and interpretation. W. H. Freeman & Company. google scholar CR - Sarp, G., & Özcelik, M. (2017). Water body extraction and change detection using time series data: A case study of Lake Burdur, Turkey. Journal of Taibah University for Science, 11(3), 381-391. google scholar CR - Selçuk Biricik, A. S. (2014). Türkiye Sular Atlası. Oray Basım Yayın ve Matbaacılık. google scholar CR - Sipahi, M. H. (1987). Aksu Çayı Havzası’nın (Antalya) Karst’ı ve Hidrojeolojisi. [Doktora tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi]. google scholar CR - Şen, C. (2013). Isparta İlinde Sıcaklık ve Yağış Verilerinin Trend Analizi, [Yüksek lisans tezi, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi]. YÖK Tez Merkezi. google scholar CR - Taberi, H., Marofi, S., Aeini, A., Talaee, P.H., Mohammadi, K., 2011. Trend Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Western half of Iran. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151, 128-136. google scholar CR - Tapur, T., & Bozyiğit, R. (2015). Konya Ilinde Güncel Obruk Oluşumlari. Marmara Coğrafya Dergisi, (31), 415-446. google scholar CR - Thieler, E. R., Himmelstoss, E. A., Zichichi, J. L., and Miller, T. L. (2005). Digital shoreline analysis system (DSAS) version 3.0. An ArcGIS© extension for calculating shoreline change: US Geological Survey Open-File Report, 1304. google scholar CR - Thieler, E. R., Mart’in, D., & Ergul, A. (2003). Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 2.0: An ArcView extension for calculating shoreline change (No. 2003-76). US Geological Survey. google scholar CR - Thieler, E. R., J. F. O’Connell, and C. A. (2009). The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 4.0-An ArcGIS extension for calculating shoreline change (No. 2008-1278). U.S. Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20081078 google scholar CR - Turoğlu, H. (2017). Deniz ve Göllerde Kıyı. (Editörler: H. Turoğlu ve H. Yiğitbaşıoğlu), and Yasal ve Bilimsel Boyutlarıyla KIYI. Jeomorfoloji Derneği Yayınları, (1), 1-32, google scholar CR - Uzun, M. (2024). Analysis of Manyas Lake Surface Area and Shoreline Changes over Various Periods with DSAS Tool. Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing, 6 (1), 35-56 google scholar CR - Woodcock, C. E., Allen, R. G., & Anderson, M. C. (2008). Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 7 ETM+ data for land surface monitoring. Remote Sensing of Environment, 112(1), 215-219. https://doi.Org/10.1016/i.rse.2008.03.010 google scholar CR - World Meteorological Organisation. (2024). United in Science 2024: A multi-organisation high-level compilation of the latest weather, climate, water, and related environmental and social sciences for the future. World Meteorological Organisation. https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/69018 google scholar CR - Xu, H. (2006). Modification of normalised difference water index (NDWI) to enhance open-water features in remotely sensed imagery. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 27(14), pp. 3025-3033. google scholar CR - Yarar, A., & Onüçyıldız, M. (2009). Yapay sinir ağları ile Beyşehir Gölü su seviyesi değişimlerinin belirlenmesi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Mühendislik, Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, 24(2), 21-30. google scholar CR - Yılmaz, M. (2010). Karapınar çevresinde yeraltı suyu seviye değişimlerinin yaratmış olduğu çevre sorunları. Ankara Üniversitesi Çevrebilimleri Dergisi, 2(2), 145-163. google scholar CR - Yigit, A. Y., Senol, H. I., & Kaya, Y. (2022). Çok zamanlı multispektral uydu verilerinin Marmara Gölü kıyı değişimi analizinde kullanılması. Geomatik, 7(3), 253-260. google scholar CR - Yue, S., Pilon, P., & Cavadias, G. (2002). Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of hydrology, 259(1-4), 254-271. google scholar CR - Zheng, F., Hu, S., Ma, J., Wang, L., Li, K., Wu B, et al. & Zhu, J. (2024). The world will encounter the warmest winter in 2023. google scholar UR - https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2025-1620561 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4523834 ER -