@article{article_1631179, title={The Nexus Between Defense Expenditures, Geopolitical Risk, Political Stability and Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Türkiye}, journal={Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi}, pages={283–301}, year={2025}, DOI={10.51290/dpusbe.1631179}, author={Efe, Elif and Aydın, Üzeyir}, keywords={Jeopolitik risk endeksi, Savunma harcamaları, Politik istikrar endeksi, ARDL sınır testi, Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi}, abstract={Defense expenditures are an item that exists cyclically throughout the world in every period and covers most of the public expenditures of countries. The effect of defense expenditures on inflation, employment, balance of trade balance, gross domestic product, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index within the scope of Türkiye has been examined. The findings, while the causality relationship from defense spending to balance of trade, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index is determined and there is a positive relationship from defense spending to foreign trade balance and a negative relationship to geopolitical risk index, there is a cointegration towards gross domestic product. Empirical findings support the military Keynesian approach in the long and short term, indicating that the increase in defense expenditures in Türkiye increases exports and the balance of trade. Increasing R&D activities and implementing policies that encourage investment in higher-density defense industry products will increase positive externalities in the balance of trade. Long-term, the rise in defense spending allows one to draw the conclusion that the country tends to lower geopolitical risks by boosting confidence in its political, economic, and security realities and lowering the threat of terrorism.}, number={84}, publisher={Kütahya Dumlupınar Üniversitesi}