TY  - JOUR
T1  - Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand with a Quantile Analysis Approach
TT  - Döviz Kurları, Petrol Fiyatları ve Küresel Belirsizliklerin Türkiye’nin Turizm Talebi Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Kantil Analiz Yaklaşımı ile Belirlenmesi
AU  - Ülker, Barış
PY  - 2025
DA  - June
Y2  - 2025
JF  - Turizm Akademik Dergisi
PB  - Muharrem TUNA
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2149-1690
SP  - 181
EP  - 193
VL  - 12
IS  - 1
LA  - en
AB  - Tourism is a vital sector for Türkiye’s economy with its significant contributions, however, it is highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. This study examines the impact of Real Effective Exchange Rates (REER), Brent crude oil prices and the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) on Türkiye’s travel income from 2003:Q1 to 2024:Q3. The Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is used to analyze both short and long-run effects across different quantiles to capture heterogeneous impacts. The results indicate that both REER and oil prices affects travel incomes in the long-run at upper quantiles however, they do not affect travel incomes in the short-run at any quantiles. The effects of the REER are negative while oil prices affect travel incomes positively. WUI shows a significant impact on tourism demand neither in long-run, nor in short-run at any quantiles. These findings reveal that keeping the exchange rate competitive and monitoring oil price fluctuations is crucial to maintain sustainable tourism demand for Türkiye Also, the policies should focus on long-term as temporary changes does not create significant effects.
KW  - Tourism Demand
KW  - Exchange Rates
KW  - Oil Prices
KW  - Global Uncertainty
N2  - Turizm, önemli katkılarıyla Türkiye ekonomisi için hayati bir değer taşımakla birlikte, makroekonomik ve jeopolitik unsurlara karşı da oldukça hassastır. Bu çalışmada Reel Efektif Döviz Kurunun (REDK), Brent petrol varil fiyatının ve Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi’nin (DBE) 2003:Ç1-2024:Ç3 döneminde, Türkiye’nin toplam seyahat gelirleri üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. Farklı kantillerdeki uzun dönemli ve kısa dönemli heterojen etkilerin belirlenebilmesi için Kantil Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme modeli kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre hem REDK hem de petrol fiyatları uzun dönemde ve üst kantillerde seyahat gelirlerini etkilerken, kısa dönemde tüm kantillerde etkisizdir. Seyahat gelirleri üzerinde REDK negatif etki gösterirken, petrol fiyatları ise pozitif etki göstermiştir. DBE ise, seyahat gelirleri üzerinde, tüm kantillerde ne kısa dönemde ne de uzun dönemde anlamlı bir etki göstermiştir. Söz konusu sonuçlar, Türkiye’ye olan turizm talebinin sürdürülebilirliği için döviz kuru rekabetçiliğinin korunmasının ve petrol fiyatı dalgalanmalarının izlenmesinin kritik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, politikalar, değişkenlerin kısa dönemde etkisiz olduğu göz önünde bulundurularak uzun döneme odaklanmalıdır.
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UR  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/touraj/issue//1639037
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4605852
ER  -