TY  - JOUR
T1  - Logistics 4.0: Analysis of the Impact of Countries' Digitalization and Innovation Levels on Logistics Performance with Machine Learning
TT  - Lojistik 4.0: Ülkelerin Dijitalleşme ve İnovasyon Düzeylerinin Lojistik Performans Üzerindeki Etkisinin Makine Öğrenmesi ile Analizi
AU  - Aksoy, Maide Betül
AU  - Çelebi, Bünyamin
AU  - Yengil Bülbül, Burcu
AU  - Sert, Mehmet Fatih
PY  - 2025
DA  - October
Y2  - 2025
DO  - 10.16951/trendbusecon.1649103
JF  - Trends in Business and Economics
JO  - Trend Bus Econ
PB  - Atatürk Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2822-2652
SP  - 571
EP  - 583
VL  - 39
IS  - 4
LA  - en
AB  - The widespread adoption of globalization and e-commerce has increased the strategic importance of logistics processes, leading to the emergence of the concept of Logistics 4.0 through the integration of Industry 4.0 technologies into the logistics sector. This situation necessitates the strengthening of logistics infrastructures by firms and countries to achieve competitive advantage. In this context, fully determining the impact of digitalization and innovation on logistics performance is of critical importance for policy-making and serves as the starting point of this study. In this study, a machine learning method, the random forest technique, is employed to assess the impact of countries' digitalization and innovation levels on logistics performance and to rank the variables influencing the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) based on their significance. According to the study’s findings, research and development (R&D) expenditures, the number of patents, the level of global innovation, high-tech exports, internet usage rate, and e-government development services—considered as indicators of digitalization and innovation—explain a significant portion of the variation in LPI. Among these factors, R&D has been identified as the most critical variable. R&D activities directly influence a country's logistics performance by fostering innovation and technological progress. In this regard, investments in R&D significantly contribute to strengthening logistics infrastructure, improving processes, and enhancing the efficiency of technologies.
KW  - Digitalization
KW  - Innovation
KW  - Logistics 4.0
KW  - LPI
KW  - Machine Learning
N2  - Küreselleşme ve e-ticaretin yaygınlaşması, lojistik süreçlerin stratejik önemini artırmış ve Endüstri 4.0 teknolojilerinin lojistik sektörüne entegrasyonuyla Lojistik 4.0 kavramı ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu durum, firmaların ve ülkelerin rekabet üstünlüğü sağlamak adına lojistik altyapılarını güçlendirmelerini gerektirmektedir. Bu kapsamda dijitalleşme ve inovasyonun lojistik performans üzerindeki etkisinin tam anlamıyla belirlenmesi, izlenecek politikalar açısından kritik öneme sahiptir ve söz konusu durum çalışmanın çıkış noktasını oluşturmaktadır. Yapılan çalışmada bir makine öğrenmesi yöntemi olan rastgele orman tekniği kullanılarak ülkelerin dijitalleşme ve inovasyon seviyelerinin lojistik performans üzerindeki etkisinin belirlenmesi ve Lojistik Performans Endeksi’ni (LPI) etkileyen değişkenlerin önem derecesine göre sıralanması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, modelde dijitalleşme ve inovasyonun göstergesi olarak ele alınan araştırma-geliştirme harcamaları, patent sayısı, küresel inovasyon düzeyi, yüksek teknoloji ihracatı, internet kullanım oranı ve e-devlet geliştirme hizmetleri, LPI’deki değişimin büyük bir kısmını açıklamaktadır. Bununla birlikte Ar-Ge faktörü, en önemli değişken olarak tespit edilmiştir. Ar-Ge faaliyetleri, inovasyonu ve teknolojik ilerlemeyi teşvik ederek bir ülkenin lojistik performansını doğrudan etkileyebilir. Bu doğrultuda, Ar-Ge’ye yapılan yatırımlar, lojistik altyapının güçlendirilmesine, süreçlerin iyileştirilmesine ve teknolojilerin daha verimli hale getirilmesine katkılar sağlamaktadır.
CR  - Acar, Z., & Günsel, A. (2010). The effects of process innovation in logistics service. In Proceedings of the 5th European Conference on Innovation and Entrepreneurship.
CR  - Archibugi, D., & Pianta, M. (1994). Aggregate convergence and sectoral specialization in innovation. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 4(1), 17-33.
CR  - Arvis, J-F.,Ojala, L., Shepherd, B., Wiederer, C. & Ulybina, D.(2023). Connecting to Compete 2023: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy-The Logistics Performance Index and Its Indicators. The World Bank, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/39760
CR  - Bakan, İ., & Şekkeli, Z. (2016). Lojistik koordinasyon yeteneği, lojistik inovasyon yeteneği ve müşteri ilişkileri (MİY) yeteneği ile rekabet avantajı ve lojistik performans arasındaki ilişki: Bir alan araştırması. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 5(2), 39-68.
CR  - Breiman, L. (2001). Random forests. Machine Learning, Springer 45(1), 5-32. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324
CR  - Burmaoğlu, S. (2012). Ulusal İnovasyon Göstergeleri ile Ulusal Lojistik Performansı Arasındaki İlişki: AB Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Ege Akademik Bakış, 12(2), 193-208.
CR  - Çetiner, B. & Bayat, T. (2023). Dijitalleşme ve İnovasyonun Lojistik Performans Üzerindeki Etkisi Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinden Ampirik Kanıtlar. Lojistik Dergisi, 20(58), 78-99.
CR  - Daugherty, P. & Pittman, P. (1995) Utilization of time-based strategies: Creating distribution flexibility/responsiveness. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 15(2), 54-60. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443579510080418
CR  - Ekici, Ş. Ö., Kabak, Ö., & Ülengin, F. (2016). Linking to compete: Logistics and global competitiveness interaction. Transport Policy, 48, 117-128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2016.01.015
CR  - El Baki, M. O., & Andaloussi, M. B. (2024). The impact of digital transformation on supply chain management: Opportunities, Challenges and future directions. In M. Benatiya Andaloussi (Eds.), Revolutionizing Supply Chains Through Digital Transformation (pp. 25-42). IGI Global Scientific Publishing. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-4427-9.ch002
CR  - Golubtsov, D. I., Sartova, R., Akhmetova, Z., & Alikbayeva, A. B. (2024). Influence of digital technologies on the logistics performance indicators in Kazakhstan. Vestnik Torajgyrov Universiteta, 4, 134–144. https://doi.org/10.48081/uryb4762
CR  - Gong, Y., Tian, X., Jiang, Z., & Jiao, Y. (2022). Penetration effect of informatization on technological progress in logistics industry: Empirical evidence from inter-provincial panel data in China. Procedia Computer Science, 214, 1249-1255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2022.11.351
CR  - Griese, J., & Sieber, P. (2000). Logistik in unternehmungsnetzwerken und virtuellen unternehmen. In B. Kaluza, & T. Blecker (Eds.). Produktions und Logistikmanagement in Virtuellen Unternehmen und Unternehmensnetzwerken. (pp. 307-319). Berlin: Springer Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-57268-5_12
CR  - Gurrala, K. R., & Choudhary, S. (2024, July). Analysis of Industry 4.0 Barriers: A Fuzzy DEMANTEL Approach. In 2024 IEEE International Conference on Industry 4.0, Artificial Intelligence, and Communications Technology (IAICT), 266-272. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/IAICT62357.2024.10617686
CR  - Hadžikadunić, A., Stević, Ž., Yazdani, M., & Hernandez, V. D. (2023). Comparative analysis of the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) of European Union countries: 2007-2023. J. Organ. Technol. Entrep, 1(1), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.56578/jote010101
CR  - Harding, J. (2013). The Industrial revolution and its impact on Australia. In Brodie L., (pp. 1-32). Sydney Trocadero Publishing.
CR  - Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009). The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7
CR  - Helvacıoğlu, İ., & Demirkol, İ. (2023). İnovasyon ve ihracat performansı ilişkisi: Lojistik performansın aracı rolü. The International New Issues in Social Sciences, 11(1), 107-136. http://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8002883
CR  - Hetterscheid, E., & Schlüter, F. (2019). Morphology for designing cyber-physical systems in supply chain planning and control processes. Logistics Journal: nicht referierte Veröffentlichungen, 2019(03). http://dx.doi.org/10.2195/lj_NotRev_hetterscheid_en_201903_01
CR  - Jhawar, A., Garg, S. K., & Khera, S. N. (2017). Improving logistics performance through investments and policy intervention: a causal loop model. International Journal of Productivity and Quality Management, 20(3), 363-391. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJPQM.2017.082638
CR  - Kabak, Ö., Ülengin, F., & Ekici, Ş. Ö. (2018). Connecting logistics performance to export: A scenario-based approach. Research in Transportation Economics, 70, 69-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2018.05.007
CR  - Kagermann H. (2015). Change Through Digitization - Value Creation in the Age of Industry 4.0. In H. Albach, H. Meffert, A. Pinkwart, R. Reichwald (Eds.), Management of Permanent Change, (pp. 23-45), Springer Gabler, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-05014-6_2
CR  - Kayıkçı, Y. (2018). Sustainability impact of digitization in logistics. Procedia manufacturing, 21, 782-789. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2018.02.184
CR  - Lai, K. H., Wong, C. W., & Cheng, T. C. E. (2010). Bundling digitized logistics activities and its performance implications. Industrial Marketing Management, 39(2), 273-286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2008.08.002
CR  - Liaw, A., & Wiener, M. (2002). Classification and regression by random forest. R News, 2(3), 18-22.
CR  - Liu, X. (2024). The role of logistics and infrastructure in promoting international trade. Journal of Education and Educational Research, 9(3), 281-286. https://doi.org/10.54097/j25ch550
CR  - Loy, A. C. M., Chin, B. L. F., & Sankaran, R. (2021). Industrial Revolution 1.0 and 2.0. In The Prospect of Industry 5.0 in Biomanufacturing. CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003080671-1-1
CR  - Marti, L., Puertas, R., & García, L. (2014). The importance of the Logistics Performance Index in international trade. Applied economics, 46(24), 2982-2992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.916394
CR  - Mitchell, T. M. (1997). Machine Learning. McGraw-Hill.
CR  - Moldabekova, A., Philipp, R., Reimers, H. E., & Alikozhayev, B. (2021). Digital technologies for improving logistics performance of countries. Transport and Telecommunication Journal, 22(2), 207-216. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ttj-2021-0016
CR  - Najib, M., & Kiminami, A. (2011). Innovation, cooperation and business performance: Some evidence from Indonesian small food processing cluster. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, 1(1), 75-96. https://doi.org/10.1108/20440831111131523
CR  - Nasir, M. H., & Zhang, S. (2024). Evaluating innovative factors of the global innovation index: A panel data approach. Innovation and Green Development, 3(1), 100096. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.igd.2023.100096
CR  - Özsoy, S., Ergüzel, O. Ş., Ersoy, A. Y., & Saygılı, M. (2022). The impact of digitalization on export of high technology products: A panel data approach. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 31(2), 277-298. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2021.1965645
CR  - Özsoylu, A. F. (2017). Endüstri 4.0. Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(1), 41-64.
CR  - Parfenov, A., Shamina, L., Niu, J., & Yadykin, V. (2021). Transformation of distribution logistics management in the digitalization of the economy. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 7(1), 58. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc7010058
CR  - Plekhanov, D., Franke, H., & Netland, T. H. (2023). Digital transformation: A review and research agenda. European Management Journal, 41(6), 821-844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.emj.2022.09.007
CR  - Polat, M., Kara, K., & Acar, A. Z. (2023). Competitiveness based logistics performance index: An empirical analysis in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, 24(2-3), 97-119. https://doi.org/10.1177/17835917231185890
CR  - Porter, M.E. (1980) Competitive Strategy, The Free Press, New York.
CR  - Schwab, K. (2017). The fourth industrial revolution. World Economic Forum, Switzerland.
CR  - Sénquiz-Díaz, C. (2021). The effect of transport and logistics on trade facilitation and trade: a pls-sem approach. Economics-Innovative And Economics Research Journal, 9 (2), 11-34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/eoik-2021-0021
CR  - Sezer, S., & Abasiz, T. (2017). The impact of logistics industry on economic growth: An application in OECD countries. Eurasian Journal of Social Sciences, 5(1), 11-23. http://dx.doi.org/10.15604/ejss.2017.05.01.002
CR  - Shamim, S., Cang, S., Yu, H., & Li, Y. (2016). Management approaches for Industry 4.0: A human resource management perspective. In 2016 IEEE congress on evolutionary computation (CEC) (pp. 5309-5316). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/CEC.2016.7748365
CR  - Sorkun, M. F. (2020). Digitalization in logistics operations and Industry 4.0: understanding the linkages with buzzwords. In Hacioglu U. (Eds.). Digital Business Strategies in Blockchain Ecosystems: Transformational Design and Future of Global Business, (pp. 177-199), Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29739-8_9
CR  - ten Hompel, M., & Henke, M. (2020). Handbuch industrie 4.0, band 3: logistik. In ten Hompel M., Bauernhansl T., Vogel-Heuser B. (Eds.). Logistik 4.0 in der Silicon Economy. (pp. 3-99). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-58530-6
CR  - Usta, S., & Bilici, G. (2022). Analysis of the Digitization Process of Turkish Public Administration Based on the Perspective of Digital Government Index and E-Government Development Index. Uluslararası Yönetim Akademisi Dergisi, 5(3), 588-601. https://doi.org/10.33712/mana.1201122
CR  - Wang, S., Wan J., Li D. & Zhang C. (2016). Implementing smart factory of industrie 4.0: an outlook, International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks 12(1), 1-10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/3159805
CR  - Winkelhaus, S., & Grosse, E. H. (2019). Logistics 4.0: a systematic review towards a new logistics system. International Journal of Production Research, 58(1), 18–43. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2019.1612964
CR  - Xu, A., Qian, F., Ding, H., & Zhang, X. (2023). Digitalization of logistics for transition to a resource-efficient and circular economy. Resources Policy, 83, 103616, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103616
CR  - Xu, L.D., Xu, E.L. & Li, L. (2018), Industry 4.0: state of the art and future trends. International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 56(8), 2941-2962. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2018.1444806
CR  - Zhao, D. & Wang, M. (2010). Research on logistics business outsourcing and logistics service innovation. International Conference on Management and Service Science (MASS), Wuhan, China, 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMSS.2010.5577062
UR  - https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1649103
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4650910
ER  -