TY  - JOUR
T1  - Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi ile Sektörel Endeks Getirileri Arasındaki İlişki
TT  - The Relationship Between Geopolitical Risk Index and Sectoral Index Returns
AU  - Irmak, Fazlı
PY  - 2025
DA  - July
Y2  - 2025
DO  - 10.11616/asbi.1658368
JF  - Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
JO  - ASBİ
PB  - Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2757-9425
SP  - 1005
EP  - 1028
VL  - 25
IS  - 2
LA  - tr
AB  - Çalışmada, 2000/1-2024/9 dönemleri arası Türkiye GPR endeksi ile sektörel endeks getirileri arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi belirlenmiştir. PNARDL analizi sonucunda, kısa dönemli şokların uzun dönemde giderildiği belirlenmiştir.  GPR endeksinde yaşanan pozitif şokların sektörel endeks değerlerini azalttığı, negatif şokların ise artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Wald testi sonucunda GPR endeksi ile sektörel endeks arasında asimetrik ilişki olduğu belirlenmiştir. Her bir sektör için PNARDL analiz sonuçları incelendiğinde, kısa vadede jeopolitik risklerde artışın birçok sektörde düşüşe neden olduğu, jeopolitik risklerdeki kısa vadeli negatif şokların ise daha az sayıda sektörü etkilediği belirlenmiştir. Uzun vadede, sadece jeopolitik risklerdeki artışların bazı sektörler üzerinde negatif etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Jeopolitik risklerdeki pozitif şoklar ile sektörel endeks arasında çift yönlü ve negatif jeopolitik risk ile sektörel endeks arasında sektörel endeksten jeopolitik riske doğru olduğu nedensellik tespit edilmiştir.
KW  - Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi (GPR)
KW  - Sektörel Endeks
KW  - Granger Nedensellik
KW  - PNARDL
KW  - Eşbütünleşme
N2  - This study investigates the relationship between the Turkish GPR index and sectoral index returns for the period 2000/1-2024/9. A cointegration relationship was found between the variables. As a result of PNARDL analysis, it is determined that short-run shocks are eliminated in the long run.  Positive shocks in the GPR index are found to decrease the sectoral index values, while negative shocks are found to increase them. The Wald test reveals that there is an asymmetric relationship between the GPR index and the sectoral index. When the results of PNARDL analysis for each sector are analyzed, it is determined that an increase in geopolitical risks in the short term causes a decline in many sectors, while short-term negative shocks in geopolitical risks affect fewer sectors. In the long run, only increases in geopolitical risks have a negative impact on some sectors. Bidirectional causality is found between positive shocks in geopolitical risks and the sectoral index and bidirectional causality between negative geopolitical risks and the sectoral index from the sectoral index to geopolitical risks.
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.1658368
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4692836
ER  -