@article{article_1676926, title={Analysis of Life Cycle Inventory Data of Pistachio Production through Cobb-Douglas Analogy and Forecasting with ARIMA Model}, journal={Journal of Agriculture}, volume={8}, pages={35–42}, year={2025}, DOI={10.46876/ja.1676926}, author={Özdemir, Murat and Yağmur, Hüseyin and Kaya, Bilal Emin}, keywords={Antep fıstığı, Yaşam döngüsü analizi, Cobb-Douglas fonksiyonu, ARIMA modeli}, abstract={Pistachio production holds significant economic importance for Türkiye. This study analyzes the life cycle inventory (LCI) data of pistachio production by using the Cobb-Douglas production function, and utilizes the Cobb-Douglas function to examine the relationship between inputs (human labor, machinery, diesel fuel, fertilizers, chemicals and manure) and pistachio production output. Fertilizers and diesel fuel are recognized as the two most energy-intensive inputs, accounting for 65.3% of total energy use. Total energy input for pistachio production yields a value of 24583.34 MJ ha-1. The regression analysis indicates high R² values of 0.9998 for the first set of variables (human labor, machinery and diesel fuel) and 0.9763 for the second set (fertilizers, chemicals and manure), demonstrating a very strong correlation between the inputs and pistachio output, and the Cobb-Douglas production function fits the data extremely well. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is employed to forecast pistachio production for the period 2023-2030, using annual pistachio production data from 1961 to 2022. The ARIMA(1, 2, 2) model is identified as the most suitable model for forecasting pistachio production in Türkiye, based on its optimal statistical performance. Forecasted pistachio production values generated using the ARIMA(1, 2, 2) model are in good agreement with historical trends for the pistachio production. The ARIMA(1, 2, 2) model predicts that pistachio production will exceed 270000 tons by 2030. The results of this study are expected to provide a guidance to pistachio producers and policymakers in making decisions for sustainable pistachio production.}, number={1}, publisher={Barış EREN}