TY - JOUR T1 - Green Growth or Financial Trap? Revisiting the Resource Curse Hypothesis with Evidence From a Panel Model TT - Yeşil Büyüme mi, Finansal Tuzak mı? Panel ARDL Modeli ile Kaynak Laneti Hipotezinin Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi AU - Bayram, Orkun AU - Adıgüzel, Selminaz AU - Ruso, Mustafa PY - 2025 DA - October Y2 - 2025 DO - 10.33203/mfy.1696905 JF - Maliye ve Finans Yazıları PB - Maliye ve Finans Yazıları Yayıncılık Ltd. Şti. WT - DergiPark SN - 1308-6014 SP - 81 EP - 102 IS - 124 LA - en AB - This study revisits the resource curse hypothesis by analyzing the long-run relationship between renewable energy production and financial development using a panel ARDL approach across 21 emerging markets (2000–2020). Findings reveal a negative association between renewable energy generation and stock market performance, while institutional quality promotes financial deepening. This suggests a green financial trap, where clean energy transitions may hinder capital market growth in structurally weak economies. The study contributes by linking environmental sustainability with financial infrastructure, addressing a gap in empirical dynamics on renewable-driven financial dynamics. Unlike prior studies focused on non-renewable resource dependence, this analysis underscores structural asymmetries and institutional factors influencing financial outcomes. Policy recommendations include introducing transparency-based reporting standards and sustainability-linked regulatory reforms to reduce market vulnerability. By highlighting the financial complexities of green transitions, the paper expands the resource curse framework and offers actionable insights for emerging economies seeking balanced energy and financial strategies. KW - Renewable Energy KW - Financial Development KW - Resource Curse KW - Institutional Quality N2 - Bu çalışma, 21 gelişmekte olan pazarda (2000–2020) panel ARDL yaklaşımı kullanarak yenilenebilir enerji üretimi ile finansal gelişme arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişkiyi analiz ederek kaynak laneti hipotezini yeniden ele almaktadır. Bulgular, yenilenebilir enerji üretimi ile borsa performansı arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koyarken, kurumsal kalitenin finansal derinleşmeyi teşvik ettiğini göstermektedir. Bu, temiz enerjiye geçişin yapısal olarak zayıf ekonomilerde sermaye piyasasının büyümesini engelleyebileceği bir yeşil finansal tuzağı akla getirmektedir. Çalışma, çevresel sürdürülebilirliği finansal altyapı ile ilişkilendirerek, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklı finansal dinamikler üzerine yapılan ampirik araştırmalardaki bir boşluğu doldurmaktadır. Yenilenemeyen kaynaklara bağımlılığa odaklanan önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak, bu analiz finansal sonuçları etkileyen yapısal asimetrileri ve kurumsal faktörleri vurgulamaktadır. Politika önerileri arasında, piyasanın kırılganlığını azaltmak için şeffaflığa dayalı raporlama standartlarının ve sürdürülebilirlikle bağlantılı düzenleyici reformların getirilmesi yer almaktadır. Yeşil geçişlerin finansal karmaşıklığını vurgulayan bu çalışma, kaynak laneti çerçevesini genişletmekte ve dengeli enerji ve finansal stratejiler arayan gelişmekte olan ekonomiler için uygulanabilir içgörüler sunmaktadır. CR - Abbass, K., Amin, N., Khan, F., Begum, H., & Song, H. (2025). Driving sustainability: The nexus of financial development, economic globalization, and renewable energy in fostering a greener future. Energy & environment, https://doi.org/10.1177/0958305X241305374 CR - Adebayo, T. S., Oladipupo, S. D., Rjoub, H., Kirikkaleli, D., & Adeshola, I. (2023). Asymmetric effect of structural change and renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions: designing an SDG framework for Turkey. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 25(1), 528-556. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-02065-w CR - Adekoya, O. B., Badmus, J. O., & Al‐Faryan, M. A. S. (2025). Geopolitical Risks and the Predictability of Green Investments: A GARCH‐Based Mixed Data Sampling Approach. International Journal of Finance & Economics. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.3124 CR - Akça, E. E., Bal, H., & Demiral, M. (2015). Mediation Effect of the Governance Indicators in the Natural Resources Abundance and Economic Growth Relationship: Empirical Evidence from the MENA and Caspian Countries. Ege Academic Review, 15(3), 301-312. CR - Akram, M.W., Ahmed, D., Trunina, A. et al. How do financial fragility and ICT penetration affect renewable energy consumption and green growth in top-polluting economies?. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 38810–38818 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24978-3 CR - Alharbi, S. S., Al Mamun, M., Boubaker, S., & Rizvi, S. K. A. (2023). Green finance and renewable energy: A worldwide evidence. Energy Economics, 118, 106499. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106499 CR - Ali, A., & Ramakrishnan, S. (2022). Financial development and natural resources. Is there a stock market resource curse?. Resources Policy, 75, 102457. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102457 CR - Alim, W., Khan, N. U., Zhang, V. W., Cai, H. H., Mikhaylov, A., & Yuan, Q. (2024). Influence of political stability on the stock market returns and volatility: GARCH and EGARCH approach. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 139. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-024-00658-8 CR - Alvarez-Perez, H., & Fuentes, R. (2024). ESG disclosure and financial performance in debt market: evidence from the oil and gas industry. Academia Revista Latinoamericana de Administración, 37(4), 634-653. https://doi.org/10.1108/ARLA-07-2024-0135 CR - Auty, R. M. (Ed.). (2001). Resource abundance and economic development. Oxford university press. CR - Baland, J. M., & Francois, P. (2000). Rent-seeking and resource booms. Journal of development Economics, 61(2), 527-542. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(00)00067-5 CR - Basiru, J. O., Ejiofor, C. L., Onukwulu, E. C., & Attah, R. U. (2023). Financial management strategies in emerging markets: A review of theoretical models and practical applications. Magna Scientia Advanced Research and Reviews, 7(2), 123-140. DOI:10.30574/msarr.2023.7.2.0054 CR - Chang, L., Qian, C., & Dilanchiev, A. (2022). Nexus between financial development and renewable energy: empirical evidence from nonlinear autoregression distributed lag. Renewable Energy, 193, 475-483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.04.160. CR - Caglar, A. E., Gönenç, S., & Destek, M. A. (2024). The influence of nuclear energy research and development investments on environmental sustainability: evidence from the United States and France. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 31(7), 861-872. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2024.2341797 CR - Degirmenci, T., Sofuoglu, E., Aydin, M., & Adebayo, T. S. (2024). The role of energy intensity, green energy transition, and environmental policy stringency on environmental sustainability in G7 countries. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-024-02968-y CR - Dogan, E., Madaleno, M., & Altinoz, B. (2020). Revisiting the nexus of financialization and natural resource abundance in resource-rich countries: New empirical evidence from nine indices of financial development. Resources Policy, 69, 101839. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101839 CR - Ellili, N. O. D. (2022). Impact of ESG disclosure and financial reporting quality on investment efficiency. Corporate Governance: The International Journal of Business in Society, 22(5), 1094-1111. https://doi.org/10.1108/CG-06-2021-0209 CR - Faizi, A., & Ak, M. Z. (2024). Kaynak Laneti Tartışmaları: Teorik Yaklaşımlar ve Eleştiriler. Bilgi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 26(2), 261-286. https://doi.org/10.54838/bilgisosyal.1586963 CR - Gaies, B., & Chaâbane, N. (2024). The dance of dependence: a macro-perspective on financial instability and its complex influence on the Euro-American green markets. Journal of Economic Studies, 51(3), 546-568. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-03-2023-0158 CR - Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791 CR - Hou, H., Wang, Y., & Zhang, M. (2023). Green finance drives renewable energy development: empirical evidence from 53 countries worldwide. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(33), 80573-80590. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28111-w CR - Lee, J. H., Choi, D., Choi, H., & Han, S. H. (2024). Corporate Bond Market Reaction to the Mandatory ESG Disclosure Act: Is Sustainium Sustainable? Asia‐Pacific Journal of Financial Studies, 53(5), 596-625. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajfs.12484 CR - Leonard, A., Ahsan, A., Charbonnier, F., & Hirmer, S. (2022). The resource curse in renewable energy: A framework for risk assessment. Energy Strategy Reviews, 41, 100841. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4017792 CR - Li, D., Chung, K., & Adriaens, P. (2025). Empirical evidence of ESG premium in the US corporate bond market: a propensity score matching approach. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 15(1), 52-76. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2024.2426485 CR - Makarenko, I., Vorontsova, A., Sergiienko, L., Hrabchuk, I., & Gorodysky, M. (2023). Sustainability-related disclosure rules and financial market indicators: Searching for interconnections in developed and developing countries. Investment Management & Financial Innovations, 20(3), 188. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.16 CR - Mehlum, H., Moene, K., & Torvik, R. (2006). Institutions and the resource curse. The economic journal, 116(508), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2006.01045.x. CR - Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric methods, 5(4), 63-91. CR - Pata, U. K., & Caglar, A. E. (2021). Investigating the EKC hypothesis with renewable energy consumption, human capital, globalization and trade openness for China: evidence from augmented ARDL approach with a structural break. Energy, 216, 119220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119220 CR - Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182 CR - Ploeg, F. V. D. (2011). Natural resources: curse or blessing?. Journal of Economic literature, 49(2), 366-420. DOI: 10.1257/jel.49.2.366 CR - Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (2003). The great reversals: the politics of financial development in the twentieth century. Journal of financial economics, 69(1), 5-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00125-9 CR - Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (1999). The big push, natural resource booms and growth. Journal of development economics, 59(1), 43-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(99)00005-X CR - Shah, W. U., Missaoui, I., Younis, I., & Liu, X. (2025). Climate risk co-movements effect on South Asia’s emerging stock market for financial inclusion. Future Business Journal, 11(1), 117. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-025-00525-7 CR - Shahbaz, M., & Lean, H. H. (2012). Does financial development increase energy consumption? The role of industrialization and urbanization in Tunisia. Energy policy, 40, 473-479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.050 CR - Shao, S., & Yang, L. (2014). Natural resource dependence, human capital accumulation, and economic growth: A combined explanation for the resource curse and the resource blessing. Energy Policy, 74, 632-642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.07.007 CR - Ullah, F., Cai, H. H., Yuan, Q., & Ul-Haq, J. (2024). Plenty of resources and energy security risk nexus: Evidence from BRICS economies. Resources Policy, 92, 104981. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.104981 CR - Van Horne, J. C., & Wachowicz, J. M. (2005). Fundamentals of financial management. Pearson education. CR - Yavuz, E., Kilic, E., & Caglar, A. E. (2024). A new hypothesis for the unemployment-environment dilemma: is the environmental Phillips curve valid in the framework of load capacity factor in Turkiye?. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(11), 29475-29492. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-04258-x CR - Yi, S., Raghutla, C., Chittedi, K. R., & Fareed, Z. (2023). How economic policy uncertainty and financial development contribute to renewable energy consumption? The importance of economic globalization. Renewable Energy, 202, 1357-1367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.11.089 CR - Yuxiang, K., & Chen, Z. (2010). Monetary policy credibility and inflationary expectation. Journal of economic psychology, 31(4), 487-497 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2010.03.012 CR - World Bank Group, DataBankWorldwide Governance Indicators, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worldwide-governance-indicators# UR - https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1696905 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4859248 ER -