TY - JOUR T1 - Sağlık Teknolojisi Değerlendirmesinde Erken Uyarı Sistemi Olarak Ufuk Tarama: Kavramsal ve Metodolojik Bir Bakış TT - Horizon Scanning as an Early Warning System in Health Technology Assessment: A Conceptual and Methodological Perspective AU - Kılıç, Mustafa PY - 2025 DA - June Y2 - 2025 DO - 10.52148/ehta.1698803 JF - Eurasian Journal of Health Technology Assessment JO - EHTA PB - Sağlık Bakanlığı Sağlık Hizmetleri Genel Müdürlüğü WT - DergiPark SN - 2587-0122 SP - 16 EP - 27 VL - 9 IS - 1 LA - tr AB - Sağlık teknolojilerinin çeşitlenmesi ve hızla gelişmesi, bu teknolojilerin sağlık sistemlerine entegrasyon sürecinde daha öngörülü ve yapılandırılmış değerlendirme mekanizmalarını gerekli kılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, sağlık teknolojisi değerlendirmesi (STD), teknolojilerin güvenlik, etkililik, maliyet ve etik boyutlarını analiz eden kanıta dayalı bir karar destek aracı olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Ancak, teknolojilerin daha erken aşamalarda değerlendirilmesi gereksinimi, “ufuk tarama” (horizon scanning) olarak adlandırılan bir erken uyarı sisteminin gelişimini gündeme getirmiştir. Bu makalede, sağlık alanında ufuk taramanın kavramsal temelleri, metodolojik yaklaşımları ve uluslararası uygulamaları ele alınmakta; ayrıca Türkiye için örnek teşkil edebilecek bir model önerisi sunulmaktadır.Çalışmada, erken uyarı sistemlerinin tanımlama, filtreleme, önceliklendirme ve raporlama gibi bileşenleri üzerinden kapsamlı bir değerlendirme yapılmıştır. Literatürden ve çeşitli ülke uygulamalarından elde edilen bulgular ışığında, özellikle nadir hastalıklar ve dijital sağlık uygulamaları gibi yüksek belirsizlik içeren alanlarda ufuk taramanın stratejik bir rol üstlendiği ortaya konmuştur. Türkiye'de mevcut STD yapısının güçlendirilmesi, uluslararası işbirliklerinin artırılması ve paydaş temelli bir ufuk tarama biriminin kurulması önerilmektedir. Bu öneriler, sağlık sisteminde proaktif ve kanıta dayalı karar alma kapasitesini artırmayı hedeflemektedir. KW - Sağlık Teknolojisi Değerlendirme KW - ufuk tarama KW - erken uyarı N2 - The rapid development and diversification of health technologies necessitate more proactive and structured assessment mechanisms to guide their integration into health systems. In this context, Health Technology Assessment (HTA) emerges as an evidence-based decision support tool, analyzing the safety, effectiveness, cost, and ethical dimensions of new technologies. However, the need to evaluate innovations at earlier stages has led to the advancement of horizon scanning (HS) systems, which serve as early warning mechanisms. This article examines the conceptual foundations, methodological frameworks, and international implementations of horizon scanning in the healthcare context, and proposes a model that may guide national practices in Türkiye.The study explores the components of early warning systems, including identification, filtration, prioritization, and reporting, through a comprehensive review of current literature and country-specific practices. Findings reveal that horizon scanning plays a strategic role particularly in areas with high uncertainty, such as rare diseases and digital health technologies. It is recommended that Türkiye strengthens its current HTA infrastructure by establishing a stakeholder-driven horizon scanning unit, engaging in international collaborations, and adopting a structured national model. These recommendations aim to enhance the country’s capacity for proactive, evidence-informed health policy-making. CR - • Ansoff, H. I. (1975). Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. California Management Review, 18(2), 21–33. https://doi.org/10.2307/41164635 CR - • Aydın, S., & Alkan, A. (2023). Big Data Analytics in Turkish Healthcare: Applications of AI for Early Detection and Decision-Making. Journal of Health Informatics in Developing Countries, 17(1), 45–58. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8000123 CR - • Banta, H. D. (2009). What is technology assessment? International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 25(S1), 7-9. DOI: 10.1017/S0266462309090323 • Draborg, E., Gyrd-Hansen, D., Poulsen, P. B., & Horder, M. (2005). International comparison of the definition and the practical application of health technology assessment. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 21(1), 89-96. DOI: 10.1017/S0266462305050116 CR - • European Commission. (2016). Strategic foresight tools for policy-making. EU Policy Lab, Joint Research Centre. https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/strategic-foresight-tools-policy-making CR - • EuroScan. (2014). EuroScan Methods Toolkit. Retrieved from https://epapers.bham.ac.uk/2120/1/EuroScan_Methods_Toolkit_October_2014_FINAL_CC_added.pdf CR - • Goodman, C. S. (1998). Healthcare technology assessment: Methods, framework, and role in policy making. American Journal of Managed Care, 4(SP), SP200-SP214. CR - • Gutiérrez-Ibarluzea, I., Otte, M., Dauben, H. P., et al. (2022). Horizon scanning: A matter of collaboration. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266462322000915 CR - • Gutiérrez-Ibarluzea, I., Simpson, S., & Benguria-Arrate, G. (2012). Early awareness and alert systems: An overview of EuroScan methods. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266462312000360 CR - • Henshall, C., Oortwijn, W., Stevens, A., & Granados, A. (2009). Informing decisions: a practical guide to horizon scanning for health technologies. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 25(S1), 16–24. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266462309090339 CR - • Hiltunen, E. (2008). Good sources of weak signals: A social constructivist approach. Futures, 40(3), 247–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.11.005 CR - • Khan, S. K., Gonzalez-Moral, S. G., Lanyi, K., Ogunbayo, D., & Craig, D. (2023). Closing the loop between horizon scanning and health technology assessment. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266462323000491 CR - • Nazarkina, V., Nemchenko, A., Podolsky, I. M., et al. (2024). Problems of creating an effective system of health technology assessment at the early stages of the drug life cycle. https://doi.org/10.24959/sphhcj.24.317 CR - • Ng, Z. L., Ju, H., Ng, J., & Ng, K. (2022). Horizon scanning to nominate subsidy evaluation topics for medical technologies: Early experience from Singapore. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. https://doi.org/10.1017/s026646232200277x CR - • Ng, Z. L., Ju, H., Ng, J., & Ng, K. (2023). Increasing emergence of novel digital health technologies identified through horizon scanning. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266462323001976 CR - • O’Rourke B, Oortwijn W, Schuller T, the International Joint Task Group (2020). The new definition of health technology assessment: A milestone in international collaboration. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1017/ S0266462320000215 Erişim Tarihi: 07.05.2025 CR - • OECD. (2013). OECD science, technology and industry outlook 2012. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/sti_outlook-2012-en CR - • Popper, R. (2008). How are foresight methods selected? Foresight, 10(6), 62–89. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680810918586 CR - • Ruggeri, M., Cadeddu, C., Roazzi, P., et al. (2020). Multi-Criteria-Decision-Analysis (MCDA) for the Horizon Scanning of Health Innovations: An Application to COVID-19 Emergency. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(21), 7823. https://doi.org/10.3390/IJERPH17217823 CR - • Simpson, S., Hyde, C., Cook, A., Packer, C., & Stevens, A. (2004). Assessing the accuracy of forecasting: Applying standard diagnostic assessment tools to a health technology early warning system. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 20(3), 381–387. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266462304001229 CR - • T.C. Sağlık Bakanlığı. (2019). Ulusal Sağlık Teknolojisi Değerlendirme Strateji Belgesi. https://shgmargestddb.saglik.gov.tr/TR-64045/ulusal-saglik-teknolojisi-degerlendirme-strateji-belgesi.html Erişim Tarihi: 11.05.2025 CR - • T.C. Sağlık Bakanlığı. (2023). Sağlık Teknolojisi Değerlendirme Raporları. https://shgmargestddb.saglik.gov.tr Erişim Tarihi: 16.06.2025 CR - • T.C. Sağlık Bakanlığı. (2019) https://shgmargestddb.saglik.gov.tr/TR-64042/stdhta-nedir.html Erişim Tarihi: 07.05.2025 CR - • Wong, W. Q., Lin, L., Ju, H., & Ng, K. (2020). Towards greater impact in health technology assessment: Horizon scanning for new and emerging technologies in Singapore. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266462320000343 UR - https://doi.org/10.52148/ehta.1698803 L1 - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4867874 ER -