@article{article_1709385, title={AN ARDL MODEL ANALYSIS OF TURKISH AIRLINES’ IMPACT AS A CARRIER POWER ON TÜRKİYE–AFRICA TRADE VOLUME}, journal={Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi}, volume={26}, pages={1–19}, year={2025}, DOI={10.24889/ifede.1709385}, author={Sönmezay, Mine}, keywords={Ulaştırma Diplomasisi, Ekonomik Güç Projeksiyonu, Türkiye-Afrika İlişkileri, Dış Ticaret ve Bağlantısallık, Genel İşletme Yönetimi ve Pazarlama}, abstract={Türkiye has increased its presence in the continent by using transportation diplomacy as an effective tool within the scope of the African opening policy that it has initiated since the early 2000s. This study examines Türkiye’s economic power projection in Africa through transportation diplomacy. In the study, economic power projection through diplomacy is considered as a theoretical framework; the connections between Türkiye’s transportation infrastructure investments in Africa, the expansion of its flag carrier airline network and the increase in its trade relations are analyzed with quantitative data. In the study, time series analyses are conducted on Turkish Airlines (THY) data and Türkiye-Africa foreign trade volume. The analysis was carried out with annual data for the period 2001–2024. Before proceeding to model construction, the stationarity levels of the series were examined, then the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method was applied and diagnostic tests of the model were performed. In the last stage, Granger causality analysis was performed. The results show that trade volume, transportation capacity and destination network act together in a long-term relationship in Türkiye’s transportation-based economic engagement towards Africa. This situation shows that the expansion of transportation infrastructure supports the trade volume between the two countries. These findings reveal that transportation diplomacy is positioned not only as a supportive but also as a guiding and sustainable foreign policy tool in Türkiye’s economic interaction with the African continent. The sustainability of this policy, its institutionalization and concrete suggestions for policy makers are discussed in the conclusion section; strategic initiatives are suggested for Türkiye to become a more permanent and effective actor in Africa in line with its medium-sized power profile. The results show that THY’s passenger transportation capacity positively affects the trade volume in the short and long term.}, number={Küresel Ticaret ve Türkiye’nin Ulaştırma Diplomasisi Özel Sayısı}, publisher={Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi}