@article{article_1715721, title={The Relationship Between Expected Inflation and Credit Rates in a Regime‐Switching Framework}, journal={Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi}, volume={47}, pages={396–418}, year={2025}, DOI={10.14780/muiibd.1715721}, url={https://izlik.org/JA58PY66LD}, author={Koç, Havva}, keywords={Beklenen Enflasyon, Kredi Faizleri, Fisher Hipotezi, Neo-Fisherian Hipotez.}, abstract={This study investigates the regime‐dependent link between expected inflation and credit rates under classical Fisher and Neo‐Fisherian hypotheses. Using monthly commercial (TICKREDI) and consumer (TUKREDI) loan rates alongside 12-month inflation expectations (ETUFE) for 2013:M02–2024:M12, stationarity is confirmed via ADF and PP tests and nonlinearity via the BDS test. Two Markov‐switching models are estimated. In the Fisher framework, the ETUFE→TUKREDI coefficient is 1.085 (σ≈10.6%; average duration 17 months) in high-uncertainty regimes and 0.253 (σ≈3.1%; 15.6 months) in low-uncertainty regimes; for TICKREDI, coefficients are 0.894 (σ≈10.2%; 7.6 months) and 0.181 (σ≈2.5%; 11.6 months). Under Neo-Fisherian, commercial rates yield 0.657 (σ≈10.2%; 6 months) and 0.183 (σ≈2.7%; 28 months), while consumer rates are 0.619 (σ≈10.6%; 8.7 months) and 0.187 (σ≈2.9%; 37 months). Results demonstrate that both Fisher hypothesis intensify in high-uncertainty periods, underscoring the relevance of regime-switching analysis and regime-contingent policy design.}, number={3}