TY  - JOUR
T1  - Demografı̇k Geçı̇ş, Tasarruflar ve Büyüme: Çı̇n'ı̇n Yaş Yapısı ve Gelı̇şı̇mı̇
TT  - Demographic Transition, Savings, And Growth: China's Age Structure and Development
AU  - Ince Yenilmez, Meltem
AU  - Darıcı, Burak
PY  - 2025
DA  - December
Y2  - 2025
DO  - 10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1723396
JF  - Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD)
PB  - Kilis 7 Aralık Üniversitesi
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2149-1585
SP  - 544
EP  - 557
VL  - 17
IS  - 33
LA  - tr
AB  - Amaç: Bu çalışma, Çin'in ekonomik büyümesi, tasarruf davranışı ve demografik değişimler arasındaki karmaşık bağlantıları incelemektedir. Çin, uzun vadeli ekonomik kalkınma üzerinde muazzam bir etkiye sahip olacak büyük bir demografik değişimden geçmektedir. Bu değişim, yaşlanan bir nüfus, küçülen bir çalışma yaşı grubu ve yüksek bir bağımlılık oranı ile karakterize edilmektedir. Solow büyüme modeli ve yaşam döngüsü teorisi de dahil olmak üzere geleneksel ekonomik kalkınma modelleri, nüfus yapısındaki değişikliklerin yatırım ve tasarruf seviyeleri üzerinde etkisi olduğunu ve bunların da kişi başına düşen GSYİH üzerinde etkisi olduğunu iddia etmektedir.Tasarım/Yöntem: Bu çalışma, Dünya Bankası'nın 2013-2023 yılları arasındaki verileriyle hem kısa hem de uzun dönem katsayılarını test etmek için Vektör Hata Düzeltme (VEC) modelleriyle birlikte Johansen-Juselius eşbütünleşme testini kullanmaktadır. Bulgular: Analiz, kişi başına düşen GSYİH ile tasarruf oranı arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir uzun dönem ilişkisi olduğunu ve tasarruf oranındaki her yüzde birlik artış için ekonomik üretimin %0,812 oranında arttığını ortaya koymaktadır.Özgünlük/Değer: Çin'deki demografik değişimlerden kaynaklanan ekonomik sorunların türüne ilişkin önemli bilgiler sağlamakta ve yaşlanan nüfus nedeniyle zor durumda olan ekonominin sürdürülmesinde tasarrufların önemini vurgulamaktadır
KW  - Çin
KW  - Tasarruf Oranı
KW  - Demografik Değişimler
KW  - Ekonomik Sürdürülebilirlik
N2  - Purpose: This study looks into the intricate connections between China's economic expansion, savings behaviour, and demographic shifts. China is going through a major demographic shift that will have a tremendous impact on long-term economic development. This shift is characterised by an ageing population, a shrinking working-age group, and a high dependency ratio. Conventional economic development models, including the Solow growth model and the life-cycle theory, contend that variations in population structure have an impact on investment and saving levels, which then have an impact on GDP per capita. Design/Methodology: The paper employs the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test coupled with Vector Error Correction (VEC) models to test both short-run and long-run coefficients with data from the World Bank from 2013 to 2023.Findings: The analysis reveals a positive and significant long-run relationship between GDP per capita and savings rate, and economic production increases by 0.812% for every one percent increase in savings rate.Originality/Value: These facts provide important insights into the type of economic problems arising from the demographic shifts in China and highlight the importance of savings in sustaining its stricken economy due to the ageing population.
CR  - Acemoglu, D. & Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Ageing on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation. American Economic Review, 107 (5), 174–79.
CR  - Aljohani, T. M., Assolami, Y. O., Alrumayh, O., Mohamed, M. A., & Almutairi, A. (2025). Sustainable Energy Systems in a Post-Pandemic World: A Taxonomy-Based Analysis of Global Energy-Related Markets Responses and Strategies Following COVID-19. Sustainability, 17(5), 2307. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17052307
CR  - Barro, R.J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross-section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407–443. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937943
CR  - Bloom, D.E. & Williamson, J. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. World Bank Economics Review, 12(3), 419–455. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/12.3.419
CR  - Bloom, D.E. & Finlay, J.E. (2009). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review, 4(1), 45–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2009.01106.x
CR  - Brida, J.G., Alvarez, E., Cayssials, G. & Mednik, M. (2024). How does population growth affect economic growth and vice versa? An empirical analysis. Review of Economics and Political Science, 9(3), 265–297. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-11-2022-00937
CR  - Brühl, V. (2025). The economic rise of China: an analysis of China’s growth drivers. Int Econ Econ Policy, 22 (16). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-024-00640-w
CR  - Carroll, C. D. & Summers, L.H. (1991). Consumption Growth Parallels Income Growth: Some New Evidence. In B. D. Bernheim and J.B. Shoven (Eds.) National Saving and Economic Performance. Chicago: Chicago University Press, 305–343.
CR  - Chirwa, T.G. & Odhiambo, N.M. (2019). The nexus between key macroeconomic determinants and economic growth in Zambia: a dynamic multivariate Granger causality linkage. Empirical Economics, 57(1), 301–327. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1439-2
CR  - Choi, K.H. & Shin, S. (2015). Population ageing, economic growth, and the social transmission of human capital: An analysis with an overlapping generations model. Economic Modelling, 50, 138–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.05.015
CR  - Jie, H., Khan, I., Alharthi, M., Zafar, M. W. & Saeed, A. (2023). Sustainable energy policy, socio-economic development, and ecological footprint. Utilities Policy, 81, 101490.
CR  - Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration: With applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
CR  - Kuznets, S. (1960). Population change and aggregate output. In Roberts, G. (Ed.), Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries. Washington, DC: NBER, 324–351.
CR  - Kuznets, S. (1967). Population and economic growth. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 111(3), 170–193.
CR  - Lianos, T.P., Tsounis, N. & Pseiridis, A. (2022). Population and economic growth in developed countries. International Review of Applied Economics, 36(4), 608–621.
CR  - Liu, W.F. & Warwick, M. (2020). Global Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change. SSRN Electronic Journal, 9, 35–54. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3564812
CR  - Liu, Z., Fang, Y., & Ma, L. (2022). A Study on the Impact of Population Age Structure Change on Economic Growth in China. Sustainability, 14(7), 3711. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14073711
CR  - Macunovich, D.J. (2012). The role of demographics in precipitating economic downturns. Journal of Population Economics, 25, 783–807. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-010-0329-5
CR  - Malthus, T.R. (1826). An Essay on the Principle of Population (6th ed.). London: John Murray.
CR  - Mason, A. (2003). Population change and economic development: What have we learned from the East Asia experience? Applied Population Policy, 1, 3–14.
CR  - Muir, D.V., Novta, N. & Oeking, A. (2024). China’s Path to Sustainable and Balanced Growth. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293467.001
CR  - OECD (2025). OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1: Tackling Uncertainty, Reviving Growth.
CR  - Okeke-Uzodike, O. E., & Ngo Henha, E. P. (2025). Resilience During Crisis: COVID-19 and the New Age of Remote Work in Higher Education. Administrative Sciences, 15(3), 92.
CR  - Smith, A. (1776). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. London: W. Strahan.
CR  - Solow, R.M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884513
CR  - Wang, Z., Huang, Y., Chen, M., & Li, C. (2025). Elderly care burden and household investment behaviour. International Review of Economics & Finance, 97, 103816.
CR  - World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators. Retrieved from World Bank Database.
CR  - Yang, Y., Zheng, R. & Zhao, L. (2021). Population ageing, health investment and economic growth: Based on cross-country panel data. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(4), 1801.
CR  - Yang, Z., Benmelech, E., Qi, Z. & Baker, S. (2022). Fertility and savings: The effect of China’s two-child policy on household savings.
CR  - Yin, J. & Horioka, C.Y. (2022). Is the Age Structure of the Population a Determinant of the Household Saving Rate in China? ISER Discussion Paper 1167.
CR  - Zhang, M., You, S., Zhang, L., Zhang, H., & Wang, Y. (2023). Dynamic Analysis of the Effects of Ageing on China’s Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability, 15(6), 5076.
CR  - Zhang, L., Brooks, R., Ding, D., Ding, H., He, H., Lu, J., & Mano, R.C. (2025). China's high savings: Drivers, prospects, and policy implications. Emerging Markets Review, 101355.
UR  - https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1723396
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/4975216
ER  -