TY  - JOUR
T1  - GELİR, DÖVİZ KURU, ULAŞIM MALİYETLERİ VE ENFLASYON ŞOKLARININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM GELİRLERİNE ETKİSİ: ARDL–ECM TEMELLİ İNCELEME
TT  - THE EFFECTS OF INCOME, EXCHANGE RATES, TRANSPORTATION COSTS AND INFLATION SHOCKS ON TÜRKİYE’S TOURISM REVENUES: AN ARDL–ECM BASED ANALYSIS
AU  - Ağaslan, Erkan
PY  - 2025
DA  - October
Y2  - 2025
DO  - 10.62080/kmfed.1779482
JF  - Kapanaltı Dergisi
PB  - Kütahya Serbest Muhasebeci Mali Müşavirler Odası Başkanlığı
WT  - DergiPark
SN  - 2822-3543
SP  - 1
EP  - 21
IS  - 8
LA  - tr
AB  - Turizm, Türkiye’nin en büyük hizmet ihracatı ve önde gelen döviz gelir kaynağı olarak büyümeye ve cari dengeye kritik derecede katkı sunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin turizm gelirleri üzerinde küresel gelir düzeyi, döviz kuru, ulaşım maliyetleri ve enflasyon şoklarının kısa ve uzun dönemli etkileri incelenmiştir. 2015M01–2025M03 dönemine ait aylık verileri kullanılan çalışmada ARDL–ECM yaklaşımı temel alınmıştır. Analiz sonucunda, kısa dönemde küresel gelir artışlarının turizm gelirlerini artırdığı, ancak enflasyon farkı ve USD/TRY kurundaki yükselişlerin gelirleri azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. COVID-19 dönemini temsil eden kukla değişkenin ise hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde güçlü biçimde negatif etkiler yarattığı görülmüştür. Uzun dönem sonuçları, küresel gelir artışlarının turizm gelirlerini desteklediğini, buna karşılık enflasyon farkı ve döviz kuru oynaklıklarının turizm gelirlerini düşürdüğünü göstermektedir. Hata düzeltme katsayısı, sistemin yaklaşık altı ayda uzun dönem dengesine döndüğünü ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, literatürle uyumlu olup turizm gelirlerinin sürdürülebilirliği açısından fiyat rekabetçiliği ve kur istikrarının kritik önemde olduğunu vurgulamaktadır.
KW  - Turizm gelirleri
KW  - ARDL
KW  - Markov rejim değişimi
KW  - döviz kuru
KW  - enflasyon
KW  - COVID-19
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UR  - https://doi.org/10.62080/kmfed.1779482
L1  - https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/5220763
ER  -